SWMM模型在城市设计洪水中的应用研究

城市化的高度发展,导致城市防洪排涝等问题显得越来越突出,受到各级政府研究工作者的高度重视.文章以SWMM模型为基础,结合广州新白云机场实际资料,率定各有关参数,利用设计暴雨推求设计洪水,试图寻求适合中国国情的城市排水设计新方法.     

Television-Induced Tourism: Evidence from Croatia

Atlantic Economic Journal - This paper analyzes the extent to which the filming of the popular television show Game of Thrones affected tourism in the Croatian city of Dubrovnik. Using monthly data...     

Tail mutual exclusivity and Tail-VaR lower bounds

In this paper, we extend the concept of mutual exclusivity proposed by [Dhaene, J. & Denuit, M. (1999). The safest dependence structure among risks. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 25, 11–21] to its tail counterpart and baptize this new dependency structure as tail mutual exclusivity. Probability levels are first specified for each component of the random vector. Under this dependency structure, at most one exceedance over the corresponding Value-at-Risks (VaRs) is possible, the other components being zero in such a case. No condition is imposed when all components stay below the VaRs. Several properties of this new negative dependence concept are derived. We show that this dependence structure gives rise to the smallest value of Tail-VaR (TVaR) of a sum of risks within a given Fréchet space, provided that the probability level of the TVaR is close enough to one.     

Not Every Kind of Outward FDI Increases Parent Firm Performance: The Case of New EU Member States

Using a large firm-level dataset we investigate what kind of firms from new EU member states from Central and Eastern Europe (CEECs) tend to invest abroad (testing of self-selection hypothesis), and what is the impact of outward FDI on their productivity (testing of learning-by-investing hypothesis). We find that the best firms tend to self-select into outward FDI. There is also a positive effect of outward FDI on productivity growth of investing firms from CEECs, the strongest being in the case of Estonia, Romania, Czech Republic, and Slovakia. The positive impact of becoming a first-time foreign investor is relatively long lasting, but comes into effect only in investments in Western European or other CEECs and in the case of manufacturing subsidiaries.     

Trust in online recommendations: an evolutionary psychology perspective

Electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM) is playing an increasingly important role in influencing consumer behavior, and it represents another opportunity for marketers to build support for their brands. This study explores how the gender of the reader influences how eWOM is perceived. An experiment grounded in evolutionary psychology examines how males and females differ in their perceived trust of eWOM of positive, negative, or mixed valence. The results indicate that females place greater trust than males in eWOM messages. But both genders find eWOM of mixed valence more trustworthy than entirely positive or negative eWOM. A follow-up phenomenological study of male and female consumers who had experienced eWOM shed more light on the experimental findings and offers additional support for their evolutionary basis. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed as well as recommendations for further research.     

Corporate financial soundness and its impact on firm performance: implications for corporate debt restructuring in Slovenia

This article studies the extent of corporate leverage and range of excessive debt of Slovenian firms during the recent financial crisis. Half of all firms (of those with some non-zero debt and at least one employee) are found to face an unsustainable debt-to-EBITDA leverage ratio beyond 4, accounting for almost 80% of total outstanding debt. Moreover, a good quarter of all firms experience debt-to-EBITDA ratios exceeding 10 and hold almost half of total aggregate net debt. We then examine how this financial distress affects firm performance in terms of productivity, employment, exports, investment and survival. We find that, while less important during the good times (pre-recession period), lack of firms’ financial soundness during the period of financial distress becomes a critical factor constraining firm performance. The extent of financial leverage and ability to service the outstanding debt are shown to inhibit firms’ productivity growth as well as the dynamics of exports, employment and investment. Micro and small firms are found to suffer relatively more than larger firms from high leverage in terms of export and employment performance during the recession period.     

An Extended Neural Network-Based Importance-Performance Analysis for Enhancing Wine Fair Experience

This article presents the results of a study conducted at the Dalmacija Wine Expo, a regional wine fair that was held for the first time in 2010 in Makarska, Croatia. To identify critical attributes impacting the experience of fair participants, two separate surveys were conducted among visitors and exhibitors. In analyzing the data, this study used an extended neural network-based importance-performance analysis (IPA) that combines measures of both the relevance (i.e., stated importance/general importance) and determinance (i.e., derived importance/actual influence) of fair attributes. Compared to traditional IPA approaches with uni-dimensional operationalization of attribute-importance, such an approach provided significantly more detailed (and reliable) managerial implications.     

A Formative Approach to Modeling Residents’ Perceived Impacts of Casino Development

This study uses a formative modeling approach rather than the more common reflective modeling approach to operationalize residents’ perceived benefits/costs. Partial least square structural equation modeling was adopted to model the predicting effects of perceived benefits/costs on residents’ support for casino development. Additionally, the mediating role of satisfaction with life was examined. Drawing from a survey administered to 1047 Macao residents, this study reveals that only perceived economic and environmental benefits affect support for casino development. The mediating effect is not confirmed. Meaningful implications are provided for policymakers and casino operators.     

Mobility,risk tolerance and competence to manage risks

Migration is a risky behaviour because of the uncertainty about future wages, living conditions, changing relationships with family and friends and cultural adjustment. While there has been some research on risk and uncertainty in migration, this has mostly been approached as a form of ‘rational’ decision-making: such approaches explain why some groups of individuals are more likely than others to migrate, but are limited in explaining individual variations in behaviour within these groups. Individual migrants vs. non-migrants are self-selected in terms of tolerance of risk and uncertainty but, with very few exceptions, there has been no research on migration within the framework of risk tolerance/aversion and competence to manage risk. Moreover, existing research is based on, and constrained by the limitations of, incumbent data-sets. Drawing on a specially commissioned large-scale survey of the UK population, this paper uses principal component analysis and logistic regression to analyse the extent to which risk and risk-related measures can be used to predict four different types of mobility profiles. There are significant associations between these individual mobility characteristics and general risk/uncertainty tolerance, and competence-based tolerance. These are strongest in terms of the two most polarised mobility types: the least mobile, the Stayers, and the most mobile, the Roamers. Recognising that previous migration is exogenous, a further analysis of migration intentions, with previous migration included as an independent variable, finds the propensity for future migration is, in fact, negatively associated with previous migration, probably due to the importance of ‘pure risk’ as opposed to acquired competence via migration experience, and to life cycle considerations.