The EU attitude to unilateral euroization: Misunderstandings,real concerns and sub‐optimal admission criteria

European Union objections to unilateral euroization by applicant countries are categorized as either a misunderstanding of what euroization entails or as justified concern, which should be alleviated by candidates wishing to euroize. Some ways in which candidates can alleviate concerns are discussed, as well as possible adjustments to the Maastricht criteria which might better protect both sides' interests. The paper concludes that the EU would benefit if it accepted unilateral euroization by applicants. JEL classification: E42, F33, F42, P24.     

Firm Productivity and Foreign Direct Investment into Non‐core Activities*

As foreign direct investment (FDI) often originates from multinational enterprises (MNEs) with non‐core activities and not single‐product firms, as MNE theory typically suggests, we hypothesize that such firms are more productive than MNEs without non‐core activities as well as non‐MNE firms. We test this hypothesis using Kolmogorov–Smirnov stochastic dominance Tests and Japanese firm‐level productivity and FDI data for the period 1985–2001. We find that both manufacturing and service multinational firms with non‐core foreign investments stochastically dominate firms without non‐core activities. We also find cost‐complementarities between certain core and non‐core FDI activities that span both manufacturing and service affiliates.     

Why do global long‐term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison

Recent studies assessing plausible futures for agricultural markets and global food security have had contradictory outcomes. To advance our understanding of the sources of the differences, 10 global economic models that produce long‐term scenarios were asked to compare a reference scenario with alternate socioeconomic, climate change, and bioenergy scenarios using a common set of key drivers. Several key conclusions emerge from this exercise: First, for a comparison of scenario results to be meaningful, a careful analysis of the interpretation of the relevant model variables is essential. For instance, the use of “real world commodity prices” differs widely across models, and comparing the prices without accounting for their different meanings can lead to misleading results. Second, results suggest that, once some key assumptions are harmonized, the variability in general trends across models declines but remains important. For example, given the common assumptions of the reference scenario, models show average annual rates of changes of real global producer prices for agricultural products on average ranging between ?0.4% and +0.7% between the 2005 base year and 2050. This compares to an average decline of real agricultural prices of 4% p.a. between the 1960s and the 2000s. Several other common trends are shown, for example, relating to key global growth areas for agricultural production and consumption. Third, differences in basic model parameters such as income and price elasticities, sometimes hidden in the way market behavior is modeled, result in significant differences in the details. Fourth, the analysis shows that agro‐economic modelers aiming to inform the agricultural and development policy debate require better data and analysis on both economic behavior and biophysical drivers. More interdisciplinary modeling efforts are required to cross‐fertilize analyses at different scales.     

Effects of ethyl alcohol on injuries severity according to injury severity scales in pedestrian fatal injury in traffic crashes

Abstract

Introduction: The dominant cause of injuries in traffic crashes. A significant portion of them affects victims under the influence of ethyl alcohol. The goal of the studies was to assess the correlation between the state of sobriety and the severity of injuries expressed by injury severity scales in fatal pedestrian victims of traffic crashes. Research Material and Method: The data were obtained from the Warsaw Medical University's Department of Forensic Medicine. The analysis covered the data for 2009–2013 and included 200 fatal pedestrian victims hit by passenger cars. The assessment of the effect of risk factors on injury severity expressed in terms of injury severity scales such as Life Threat Indicator (LTI), International Classification based Injury Severity Score (ICISS), Injury Severity Score (ISS) and New Injury Severity Score (NISS), was made using adequately selected methods of statistical analysis. Results: As alcohol concentration increases in women, the values of LTI, ICISS-10 and ICISS-15 decrease, which denotes more severe injuries. In the ISS and NISS, the effect of alcohol concentration on the severity of injuries turned out to be negligible. However, these injuries are significantly heavier in women than in men. According to all the scales used, the older the victims, the milder injuries cause their death. Conclusions: The studies show that ethyl alcohol concentration may harm injury severity, especially in the case of women. The assessment of the severity of injuries in traffic crash victims is significantly influenced by their age and gender. The more risk factors the scale takes into consideration, the more precise is the assessment.     

Consumer debt attitudes: The role of gender,debt knowledge and skills

The link between financial attitudes and consumer financial market behaviour is well documented. However, little is known about the role of financial knowledge and skills—the main components of the financial literacy construct—in shaping debt attitudes. This link is especially absent from the gender perspective. This study focuses on consumer debt literacy and debt attitudes. A representative sample of adult Poles (N = 1,004) was participated in a computer‐assisted telephone interview. Latent class analysis was employed to reveal their debt attitudes, and subsequently, links between debt literacy and debt attitudes were studied with multinomial regression models. The results show that respondents in Poland can be grouped into five classes exhibiting different attitude profiles. The structure of debt attitudes is complex and differs from a simple unidimensional pro‐debt/ anti‐debt construct. Although this study did not find significant gender differences either in the conceptualization of debt attitudes or in their drivers, the results showed that in all but one class, consumer attitudes are strongly linked to either debt knowledge or debt skills or to both. Debt skills were revealed to be a particularly strong predictor of consumer debt attitudes.     

Tacit collusion in repeated auctions

This paper considers the question of tacit collusion in repeated auctions with independent private values and with limited public monitoring. McAfee and McMillan show that the extent of collusion is tied to the availability of transfers. Monetary transfers allow cartels to extract full surplus. A folk theorem proved by Fudenberg et al. (Econometrica 62 (1994) 997-1039) shows that transfers of future payoffs are almost as good if players are patient and communicate before auctions. We ask how the scope of collusion is affected if players dispense with explicit communication and their monitoring is limited. Collusion better than bid rotation is still feasible, but full surplus cannot be extracted. This constraint becomes less severe with more players and large cartels can become asymptotically efficient even with very limited monitoring.     

Sharp bounds on moments of generalized order statistics

Sharp lower and upper bounds on expected values of generalized order statistics are proven by the use of rearranged Moriguti's inequality. The method yields improvements of known quantile and moment bounds for expectations of order and record statistics based on independent identically distributed random variables. The bounds are attainable providing new characterizations of two-point distributions. Received: January 1999     

Economic freedom–growth nexus in European Union countries

This study examines the economic freedom and economic growth nexus in a panel of 28 European Union countries. We investigate the relationship between growth and different components of economic freedom, measured in five major areas of the Economic Freedom of the World index. The aim of the article is to assess which aspects of economic freedom – and to what extent – contribute to economic growth in the EU. Our empirical analyses suggest that the results are sensitive to the method of estimation. Using the Generalized Method of Moments estimator which allows addressing endogeneity, we found a positive relationship between economic growth and four of the five aspects of economic freedom: security of property rights, quality of monetary policy, freedom to trade and regulatory policies.     

The Limits of Discipline: Ownership and Hard Budget Constraints in the Transition Economies

The existing literature on soft budget constraints suggests that firms may be subsidized for political reasons or because of the creditors' desire to recover a part of the sunk cost invested in an earlier period. In all these models hard budget constraints are viewed as being, in principle, capable of inducing the necessary restructuring behaviour on the level of the firm. This paper argues that the imposition of financial discipline is not sufficient to remedy ownership and governance-related deficiencies of corporate performance. Using evidence from the post-communist transition economies, the paper shows that a policy of hard budget constraints cannot induce successful revenue restructuring, which requires entrepreneurial incentives inherent in certain ownership types (most notably, outside investors). The paper also shows that the policy of hard budget constraints falters when state firms, because of inferior revenue performance and less willingness to meet payment obligations, continue to pose a higher credit risk than privatized firms. The brunt of state firms' lower creditworthiness falls on state creditors. But the 'softness' of these creditors, while harmful in many ways, is not necessarily irrational, if it prevents the demise of firms that are in principle capable of successful restructuring through ownership changes.