RESERVATIONS ABOUT THE ‘NUDGE’ PHILOSOPHY1

The government has embraced the Nudge philosophy. Its enthusiasm is misplaced. It undermines freely chosen paternalistic mechanisms and has no guarantee of producing better government decision making about whether to intervene in a free economy.     

Manual and Automated Procedures for Compiling a Very Large Sample of Centenarian Pedigrees

A large portion of the baby boomer population will live beyond the age of 90 years, and entitlement programs and various insurance products have thus become interested in longevity risk. Beyond cohort life table predictions, actuaries have little to go on in determining which individuals or portions of populations are at increased risk of living to 90 or 100 or even older. We and others have noted strong familial risk for living beyond the oldest one percentile of survival, and we developed an algorithm that uses information about relatives’ longevity to compute the chance of an individual surviving to extreme old age. An important step of this work is to compile large samples of pedigrees with and without long-lived family members. Here we describe our process of hand curation of centenarian pedigrees and software that we have developed for the automated construction of such pedigrees using internet-based resources that can support the manual process.     

Economic benefits of enterprise resource planning systems: some empirical evidence

The present study provides empirical evidence on the economic benefits of enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems. We use a modified value chain approach and identify several ratios for each component of the value chain to reflect improvements as a result of the adoption of ERP systems. These financial ratios are tracked for 2 years for a group of companies that adopted ERP systems versus a group of companies that did not adopt ERP. Both univariate and multivariate statistics are used to test for differences. The key result of the present study is that the adoption of ERP systems leads to sustained operational efficiencies and improved overall liquidity. In addition, some support is found for increased profitability 2 years after the adoption of ERP and for improvements in accounts receivable management.     

The tax treatment of UK defined contribution pension schemes

The paper aims to clarify the tax status of pension schemes in the UK and, by using economic and other arguments, to establish a theoretical benchmark that could be considered the ‘appropriate’ tax regime for pension saving. We consider existing tax regimes for saving (such as the ‘ISA’ regime) and theoretical regimes (such as a pure expenditure tax and a comprehensive income tax) and we compare the costs different tax regimes impose on defined contribution pension schemes. We conclude that an expenditure tax is an appropriate benchmark tax regime for pension saving, and that other tax regimes impose additional financial as well as administrative costs.     

SIMPLIFYING THE TAXATION OF PENSIONS

The current tax framework for pensions is now economically incoherent. The changes in the 1997 Budget made it more so. Changes can be made to restore its coherence. However, any attempt to remove tax relief at the higher rate, as has been discussed by academics and commentators recently, would be wrong in principle and could not work in practice. The pension fund tax codes and the rules for annuitisation should also be simplified significantly. The Inland Revenue no longer needs to design detailed rules to prevent people 'abusing' tax relief. Such detailed rules are extremely costly to implement and, because they make the whole system impenetrable, stop people from using pension vehicles for saving.     

Transaction costs in milk marketing: a comparison between Canada and Great Britain

This study measures the magnitude of transaction costs incurred by milk producers in their contractual relations with dairy processors in two different coordination mechanisms: centralized contracting through a marketing board and decentralized bilateral contracting. Interviews and surveys were conducted to estimate transaction costs faced by producers marketing through the Québec milk marketing board in Canada and bilateral contracts in England and Wales in the United Kingdom using the measurement methodology of the cost of exchange. Our results show that the relative magnitude of transaction costs incurred by producers across both settings is quite low, which indicates that both hybrid coordination mechanisms minimize transaction costs in the dairy sector. However, results from the bilateral contracting setting indicate a strong heterogeneity of transaction costs levels among farmers. In that respect, the milk marketing board and its institutional setting would act as a collective insurance, pooling transaction costs and sharing them among producers. Our analysis leads to recommendations on bilateral contracting.     

Project Hindsight: Exploring Necessity and Possibility in Cycles of Structuration and Co-Evolution

The successful management of strategic change requires an understanding of which moves are possible in specific contexts, and thus of how specific contexts variously require, forbid, or permit certain organizational or policy actions. Appreciation of such modal issues of necessity and possibility thus becomes essential in understanding organizational and technological dynamics. This paper introduces the concept of modal narratives: forms of analytically structured narrative that explore questions of necessity, possibility and contingency. After a brief review of two common types of modal narrative—counterfactuals and scenarios— the potential of a third form is suggested: the superfactual. An extended example of a superfactual is provided in the Project Hindsight case, and the implications for strategic action are discussed.     

Unemployment persistence

We estimate dynamic panel data models of unemployment incidencefor men using the British Household Panel Survey. Econometricissues concerning unobserved individual heterogeneity, genuinestate dependence, and the initial conditions problems are addressedin detail. We find strong evidence of state dependence consistentwith the scarring theory of unemployment - an individual's previousunemployment experience has implications for his future labourmarket experience. This suggests that policies reducing shortrun employment incidence will have longer-run effects by reducingthe equilibrium or natural rate of unemployment.