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81.
    
Individual's preferences are explained on the basis of two types of influences, his own past consumption and the consumption of others which is directly observable by him. These effects are estimated using the “individual welfare function” approach of Van Praag, and a model of preferences formation.  相似文献   
82.
    
In recent years the workers' committees—the lowest level of trade union organization—in manufacturing industry in Israel have shown increasing disregard for their central body, the Histadrut. So far the Histadrut's attempts to stem this alienation have been unsuccessful.  相似文献   
83.
    
This study develops a microeconometric model of specialized dairy farms in the Moscow region using panel data over the period 1995–2001. The model is used to analyze the role of subsidies on profit as well as input and output allocation. Theoretical conditions for short‐term profit maximization are not rejected by the data. Differences between farms allow for a fixed‐effect specification. The dairy producers in the region demonstrate a low responsiveness to market signals, but technology change becomes important. Labor, land, and livestock had low shadow prices. Although subsidies have a distorting effect on the input–output mix, this study shows they relieve the credit constraints on dairy farms and have an important positive influence on farm profit.  相似文献   
84.
As a result of the recent financial crisis and the ensuing economic recession, fiscal deficits have soared in many OECD countries. As a consequence, government debt has been on the rise again after a period of stable or declining government debt. In this paper we analyze debt stabilization in a country that features endogenous risk premia, imposed by financial markets that evaluate the probability of debt default by governments. Endogenous risk premia arise by assuming, e.g., simple linear relations between risk premia and the level of debt. As a result the real interest rate on government debt can be written as a constant (measuring the risk-free real interest rate corrected for real output growth) plus an endogenous risk premium that depends on the debt level. We bring such an endogenous risk premium into Tabellini (1986) model and analyze the impact of it. This gives rise to a non-linear differential game. We solve this game for both a cooperative setting and a non-cooperative setting. The non-cooperative game is solved under an open-loop information structure. We present a bifurcation analysis w.r.t. the risk premium parameter.  相似文献   
85.
The paper reviews the development of von Neumann and Morgenstern (vNM) utility theory. Kahneman and Tversky’s (KT’s) prospect theory is introduced. The vNM utility function is compared and contrasted with KT’s value function. We prove the uniqueness of two popular utility functions. First, we show that all power utility functions possess constant RRA. And, we show that all exponential utility functions have constant ARA. The paper concludes by discussing applications, strengths and weaknesses of various utility functions.  相似文献   
86.
    
This paper considers estimation of discrete choice models when agents report their ranking of the alternatives (or some of them) rather than just the utility maximizing alternative. We investigate the parametric conditional rank‐ordered Logit model. We show that conditions for identification do not change even if we observe ranking. Moreover, we fill a gap in the literature and show analytically and by Monte Carlo simulations that efficiency increases as we use additional information on the ranking.  相似文献   
87.
This article investigates the valuation of a project when the distributions of cash flows vary over time. The decision maker is assumed to be a Bayesian decision maker under uncertainty. Using the dynamic programming principle of backward induction and assuming that the capital asset pricing model is valid in each time period, we derive the project's valuation formulas and systematic risks, and investigate their characteristics. Our valuation formulas embed a Bayesian learning effect and differ from the traditional textbook capital budgeting formulas.  相似文献   
88.
Climate change may pose considerable challenges to coastal cities, particularly in low-lying urban deltas. Impacts are, however, associated with substantial uncertainties. This paper studies an uncertainty-robust adaptation strategy: strengthening the resilience of the impacted system. This approach is operationalised for the city of Rotterdam, using literature study, interviews, and a workshop. Potential impacts have been explored using national climate statistics and scenarios and a set of ‘wildcards’ (imaginable surprises). Sea level rise, particularly in combination with storm surge, and enduring heat and drought are the most relevant potential stresses in the area. These can lead to damage, loss of image, and societal disruption. Unclear responsibilities enhance disruption. ‘Resilience principles’ made the concept of resilience sufficiently operational for local actors to explore policy options. Useful principles for urban resilience include: homeostasis, omnivory, high flux, flatness, buffering, redundancy, foresight and preparedness/planning, compartmentalisation, and flexible planning/design. A resilience approach makes the system less prone to disturbances, enables quick and flexible responses, and is better capable of dealing with surprises than traditional predictive approaches. Local actors frame resilience as a flexible approach to adaptation that would be more suitable and tailored to local situations than rigid top-down regulations. In addition to a change in policy, it would require a more pro-active mentality among the population.  相似文献   
89.
    
Managing the Indonesian economy in 2015 has proved challenging for the administration of Joko Widodo (Jokowi). In a first quarter plagued by external adversity—especially a sharp drop in exports to China—coupled with internal political paralysis and the delayed disbursement of fiscal spending, the economy recorded its lowest rate of growth since 2009. Observing relatively stable inflation, Bank Indonesia (BI), the central bank, eased its policy rate in February by 25 basis points, to 7.5%. The bank also adjusted its macroprudential measures to counter declining bank lending. On the fiscal side, the expected stimulus from fuel-subsidy reallocation and aggressive public-capital spending did not arrive. Meanwhile, tax revenue made slow progress towards its ambitious target, which it seems unlikely to attain.

Increases in supply costs made it difficult for the government to align domestic fuel prices more closely to the market. Major commodity exports fell significantly, but some manufactured exports showed hints of an upturn. The depreciation of the rupiah, the global strategies of leading investors, and the introduction of taxexemption policies that have been tested in neighbouring countries may have contributed to this trend. To further broaden the base of export diversification, the priorities should be to reduce business costs and enhance competition rather than enforce mandatory regulations. Jokowi has stressed that his focus on maritime development, part of a broader development strategy, includes reducing logistics costs.

The second quarter of 2015 saw the start of several projects in Jokowi's flagship ‘sea toll’ program to improve maritime connectivity. There is a concern, however, that the predominance of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in strategic port operations will continue to limit competition and reduce efficiency. Jokowi's development strategy also focuses on reducing inequality. His government has implemented several distribution and redistribution policies, including the national social-security system initiated by the previous administration. The system suffered financially in its first year from low participation among those in the informal sector.  相似文献   

90.
    
The presence of investment cycles demonstrates the long‐run policy of firms investing in particular periods (investment spikes) with lower or zero investment levels in between, which contradicts the smooth pattern predicted by a convex adjustment model. This paper investigates the spells between investment spikes in a discrete‐time proportional hazard framework to estimate the probability of observing lumpy investment and factors underlying lumpy and intermittent patterns of investment. Duration models were estimated on two datasets: on an unbalanced panel and on average data of 10 ‘firm size’ groups of Dutch greenhouse firms over the period 1975–1999. Two specifications of the model were estimated: one includes only theoretically grounded variables, and the other specification is extended by empirically grounded variables. Theoretically based models can explain the occurrence of investment spikes. Both specifications of model show an investment cycle of six years. This is also confirmed for the average firm, which exhibits a higher hazard ratio in the 6th, 12–13th and 21st years of duration.  相似文献   
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