Interwar Inflation,Unexpected Inflation,and Output Growth

Interwar macroeconomic history is a natural place to look for evidence on the correlation between output growth and inflation or unexpected inflation. We apply time‐series methods to measure unexpected inflation for more than 20 countries using both retail and wholesale prices. There is a significant, positive correlation between output growth and inflation for the entire period. There is little evidence that this correlation is caused by an underlying role for unexpected inflation. For wholesale price inflation in particular, the output declines associated with deflations were larger than the output increases associated with inflations of the same scale.     

PROFESSIONAL SOCIALISATION, COMMERCIAL PRESSURES AND JUNIOR STAFF'S TIME-PRESSURED IRREGULAR AUDITING—A CONTEXTUAL INTERPRETATION

Research suggests a correlation between commercial concerns, time pressures and junior staff's ‘irregular auditing’ that results in audit failures. This article examines junior staff's irregular auditing in the context of trainees' normal auditing responsibilities and the specific nature of time pressures at their firms. The discussion recognises that omnipresent commercial concerns often leads to adoption of new audit methods that may militate against time pressures. Empirical evidence from in-depth interviews is used to highlight that firms that use risk-based auditing expect their trainees to help realise commercial gains by focusing audit work on areas where material misstatements could occur. The evidence shows that trainees do concentrate work on areas where material misstatements could occur. Acts that reduce audit quality occur in other areas and may often be seen by senior staff who may sanction extra work, if necessary. The article uses these findings to infer that junior staff do not have low regard for audit protocol.     

Market Efficiency and the Favorite-Longshot Bias: The Baseball Betting Market

This paper examines the efficiency of the legal gambling market for major league baseball. Weak-form tests of market efficiency within and across odds lines are performed. Surprisingly, the consistently observed favorite-longshot bias in racetrack betting is shown to exist in reverse for baseball bettors. However, these and other deviations from efficiency are shown to be insufficient to allow for profitable betting strategies when commissions are considered.     

Cross‐Border Bank M&As and Risk: Evidence from the Bond Market

The impact of cross‐border bank M&As on bank risk remains an open question. Though geographically diversifying bank M&As have the potential to reduce the risk of bank insolvency, they also have the potential to increase that risk due to the increase in risk‐taking incentives by bank managers and stockholders following these transactions. This paper empirically investigates whether cross‐border bank M&As increase or decrease the risk of acquiring banks as captured by changes in acquirers' yield spreads. This paper also investigates how differences in the institutional environments between bidder and target countries affect changes in yield spreads following M&A announcements. The study finds that bondholders, in general, perceive cross‐border bank M&As as risk‐increasing activities, unlike domestic bank mergers. Specifically, on average, yield spreads increase by 4.13 basis points following the announcement of cross‐border M&As. This study also finds that these yield spreads are significantly affected by the differences in investor‐protection and deposit insurance environments between the transacting countries. However, the study does not find that the regulatory and supervisory environment in the home countries of the transacting parties significantly affects the changes in yield spreads. The overall evidence suggests that regulators should judge the relative environment in both the home and the host countries in evaluating the associated risks of an active multinational financial institution and in setting the sufficiency of the banks' reserve positions.     

前置财务管理

一家公司的产品和服务的竞争力是公司持续创造业绩的核心.一位国际知名的电脑公司的首席执行官对此的看法是:"总是在担心不能开发出最好的产品,从而不能获得足够的订单,所以,就不停地追逐世界领先.我不知道这是一个好的战略还是灾难."