Order Imbalances and Stock Price Movements on October 19 and 20, 1987

On October 19, 1987, NYSE stocks in the S&P index declined seven percentage points more than NYSE stocks not in this index. In the first hour of trading on October 20, the S&P stocks virtually recovered to the level of the non-S&P stocks. There is a strong relation between order imbalances and stock price movements, both in analyses of time series and cross-sections. Thus, in addition to the breakdown in the linkage between future prices and the spot index on these two days, there were also breakdowns in the linkage among NYSE stocks.     

Financing Innovation and Growth: Cash Flow, External Equity, and the 1990s R&D Boom

The financing of R&D provides a potentially important channel to link finance and economic growth, but there is no direct evidence that financial effects are large enough to impact aggregate R&D. U.S. firms finance R&D from volatile sources: cash flow and stock issues. We estimate dynamic R&D models for high-tech firms and find significant effects of cash flow and external equity for young, but not mature, firms. The financial coefficients for young firms are large enough that finance supply shifts can explain most of the dramatic 1990s R&D boom, which implies a significant connection between finance, innovation, and growth.     

Optimal Constrained Interest-Rate Rules

We show that if policymakers compute the optimal unconstrained interest-rate rule within a Taylor-type class, they may be led to rules that generate indeterminacy and/or instability under learning. This problem is compounded by uncertainty about structural parameters since an optimal rule that is determinate and stable under learning for one calibration may be indeterminate or unstable under learning under a different calibration. We advocate a procedure in which policymakers restrict attention to rules constrained to lie in the determinate learnable region for all plausible calibrations, and that minimize the expected loss, computed using structural parameter priors, subject to this constraint.     

ENDANGERED SPECIES CONSERVATION ON PRIVATE LAND

This paper analyzes the effect of alternative institutional arrangements on the conservation of endangered species and economic activity on private land. Because a landowner does not capture the full value of species conservation, her preferences on land use will not coincide with social preferences. Under current law, the landowner has incentives to invest in lowering conservation value and to deny access to regulators in order to prevent collection of information. Paying compensation corrects many of these perverse incentives. An alternative approach is to limit the ability of landowners to affect the regulatory outcome. Whether it is better to entice landowners to make socially efficient decisions by paying compensation or to limit the ability of landowners to affect outcomes through changes in the regulatory regime depends on both practical implementation difficulties and distributive justice considerations.     

A Note on the Taxation of International Capital Income Flows

Seemingly persuasive arguments can be made to suggest that income from foreign-owned capital should be taxed by a small open economy and that it should not be taxed I show that the case for taxing foreign capital income as part of an 'optimal' tax scheme rests on the assumption that tax rates on other forms of income are not set optimally. In particular, if economic profit is not fully taxed, a tax on foreign capital income is desirable. If all tax rates are set optimally, foreign capital income should not be taxed by the capital-importing country.     

Corporate Governance: Factors Influencing Voluntary Disclosure by Publicly Traded Canadian Firms*

We report on the comprehensiveness of voluntary corporate governance disclosures in the annual reports and management information circulars of Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE) firms. We focus on disclosure of the corporate governance practices implemented by our sample of TSE 300 firms vis‐à‐vis the 14 guidelines set out in the TSE's report on corporate governance Where Were the Directors? Our analysis indicates that only a very few firms disclose that they have fully implemented the TSE guidelines, and that the extent of disclosure of corporate governance practices implemented varies widely among the firms. We then test factors associated with the comprehensiveness of such disclosures and the choice of disclosure medium using simultaneous equations multivariate analysis. We also assess the influence of publicized corporate governance failures on disclosure. Overall, our results suggest that the choices of disclosure medium and the extent of disclosure are made concurrently, and are influenced by the strategic considerations of management.