Variability in agricultural productivity and rural household consumption inequality: Evidence from Nigeria and Uganda

This paper uses multiple rounds of panel data to assess the distributional implications of the variability in agricultural productivity in Nigeria and Uganda. It uses both a conventional decomposition and a regression‐based inequality decomposition approach to estimate the impact of climate‐induced variability in agricultural productivity. To mitigate the endogeneity associated with unobserved time‐invariant and time‐variant household fixed effects, we use rainfall shocks as a proxy for estimating the exogenous variability in agricultural productivity that affects consumption. Results suggest that a 10% increase in the variability of agricultural productivity tends to decrease household consumption by 38 and 52% on average for Nigeria and Uganda, respectively. Controlling for other factors, variability in agricultural productivity contributed to between 25% and 43% of consumption inequality between 2010 and 2015 for Nigeria; and 16% and 31% of consumption inequality between 2009 and 2011 for Uganda. We also show that variability in agricultural productivity increases changes in consumption inequality over time.     

Determinants of food security in Southern Ethiopia at the household level

In the early 1980s, a paradigm shift occurred in the field of food security, following Amartya Sens (1981) claims that food insecurity is more of a demand concern, affecting the poor's access to food, than a supply concern, affecting availability of food at the national level. Despite the wide acceptance of Sen's thinking, many controversies including the relative importance of supply‐side versus demand‐side variables in causing and solving food insecurity have remained in academic and policy circles. This study develops a recursive household food security model within the framework of consumer demand and production theories following Singh et al. (1986) , and parses out the relative importance of supply‐side versus demand‐side variables in determining household food security in southern Ethiopia. Based on results of a test of full/reduced model and the magnitude of changes in conditional probabilities of food security, we conclude that the supply‐side variables are more powerful determinants of food security than the demand‐side variables.     

The structural transformation of African agriculture and rural spaces: introduction to a special section†

This article briefly introduces a special section on the structural transformation of African agriculture and rural spaces. The five papers that comprise this special section all draw on household‐level microdata to explore important aspects of the salient changes taking place in the world's most agrarian and poorest continent.     

Agricultural technology adoption and child nutrition enhancement: improved maize varieties in rural Ethiopia

Adoption of improved crop varieties can lead to multiple benefits to farm households, including increased productivity, incomes, and food consumption. However, possible impacts of adoption on child nutrition outcomes are rarely explored in the literature. This article helps bridge this gap through an impact assessment of the adoption of improved maize varieties (IMVs) on child nutrition outcomes using a recent household survey from rural Ethiopia. The conceptual linkage between IMV adoption and child nutrition is first established using an agricultural household model. Instrumental variable estimation suggests the overall impacts of adoption on child height‐for‐age and weight‐for‐age z‐scores to be positive and significant. Quantile instrumental variable regressions further reveal that such impacts are largest among children with poorest nutrition outcomes. Finally, by combining a decomposition procedure with system of equations estimation, it is found that the increase in own‐produced maize consumption is the major channel through which IMV adoption affects child nutrition.     

Adoption of improved maize varieties in Southern Ethiopia: Factors and strategy options

This paper identifies factors that influence the decision behavior of farmers in Southern Ethiopia in adopting improved maize varieties by estimating a logistic regression. Data for this study came from 222 farmers interviewed as part of a national adoption survey conducted in three selected maize growing administrative zones of Southern Ethiopia in 1998. The paper also assesses the impact of pure and mixed strategy options on the probability of adoption of improved maize varieties through simulation under different scenarios. As far as pure strategies are concerned, the credit strategy is more powerful than the others in terms of raising the probability of adoption. However, results from the analysis of pure versus mixed strategies imply that mixed strategies are no necessarily much better than pure strategies.     

Recidivism among Welfare Recipients: The Role of Neighborhood and Access to Employment

Work requirements and time limitations on benefits have forced welfare administrators to be more aggressive in moving welfare recipients into the workplace. This paper tracks a cohort of Georgia welfare leavers from 1992 to 2001, estimating the timing of recidivism using duration models. Of the case heads that leave the program within a two-year period, 15.3 percent remain out of welfare for less than three months and 35 percent returned within one year. There is also a relatively high risk of welfare recidivism for a much longer period than estimated in previous studies. Furthermore, successful employment may be affected not only by the presence of job growth but also by the industrial mix in which jobs are growing and by the residential location of welfare leavers.     

Impact of modern agricultural technologies on smallholder welfare: Evidence from Tanzania and Ethiopia

This paper evaluates the potential impact of adoption of improved legume technologies on rural household welfare measured by consumption expenditure in rural Ethiopia and Tanzania. The study utilizes cross-sectional farm household level data collected in 2008 from a randomly selected sample of 1313 households (700 in Ethiopia and 613 in Tanzania). The causal impact of technology adoption is estimated by utilizing endogenous switching regression. This helps us estimate the true welfare effect of technology adoption by controlling for the role of selection problem on production and adoption decisions. Our analysis reveals that adoption of improved agricultural technologies has a significant positive impact consumption expenditure (in per adult equivalent terms) in rural Ethiopia and Tanzania. This confirms the potential role of technology adoption in improving rural household welfare as higher consumption expenditure from improved technologies translate into lower poverty, higher food security and greater ability to withstand risk. An analysis of the determinants of adoption highlighted inadequate local supply of seed, access to information and perception about the new cultivars as key constraints for technology adoption.     

Technology adoption under seed access constraints and the economic impacts of improved pigeonpea varieties in Tanzania

Dry‐land legumes, well adapted to drought‐prone areas, have largely been neglected in the past despite the good opportunities they offer for income growth and food (and nutritional) security for the poor. This study evaluated the adoption and impact of two farmer and market‐preferred and disease‐resistant pigeonpea varieties that were developed and promoted in semi‐arid Tanzania. The new varieties were resistant to fusarium wilt, a fungal disease devastating the crop. However, farmers wanting to adopt new varieties did not adopt due to seed access constraints and under‐developed seed delivery systems. Adoption of new varieties is therefore analyzed using an augmented double hurdle model that allows estimating variety adoption conditional on seed access thresholds accounting for the additional information on sample separation. The study identifies the crucial role of seed access (local supply), extension, education, participatory decision making, capital, and household assets in determining adoption. The social economic benefits of the technology and policies for improved seed access were further analyzed using the extended economic surplus method (DREAM model). Even under restrictive assumptions, overall discounted benefits were found to be quite attractive, indicating the need for additional efforts to scale‐up the success story. Analysis of changes in research benefits from relaxing the seed access constraint showed that net gains would increase by up to 30% if farmer access to improved seeds can be assured. Smallholder farmers are the major beneficiaries along with consumers and rural net‐buyers who gain from productivity‐induced lower market prices.     

Federal excise tax increase and its effects on U.S. tobacco production

Using the equilibrium displacement model, we examine the impact on tobacco farms of the decrease in cigarette sales due to the increase in prices induced by the federal excise tax hike that went to effect on April 1, 2009. First we estimate the effect of the increase in the federal excise tax on cigarette price and sales. Then, we estimate the effect of the decrease in cigarette sales on tobacco farms. Results suggest that under a scenario of market power implied by a conjectural elasticity of 0.11 manufactures could charge $0.23 per pack more than the federal excise tax increase, which would be enough to offset the estimated 1.42 billion-pack sales decline and to maintain the industry’s revenue net of taxes. This decrease in cigarette sales induced by the increase in the federal excise tax would result in the tobacco leaf output and price declining by 2.85 and 0.41%, respectively. As a result, the tobacco leaf sector would sustain a loss of 3.25% in revenue, amounting to nearly $48.4 million.