The role of expertise in risk communication: laypeople's and expert's perception of the millennium bug risk in The Netherlands

This paper focuses on the discussion of the role of expertise in risk communication. It describes empirical data on the risks posed by the Millennium bug in 1999 in the Netherlands. The study systematically examined the risk perception of both general public and computer experts with respect to the Millennium bug, assessing a potential discrepancy between the layman's and the expert's judgement, as has been observed in other risk areas. Two surveys were fielded, the first aimed at a random sample of the Dutch population ( n = 253), the second at a sample of computer experts ( n = 91). Results indicated that respondents did not perceive the Millennium bug to be a major threat. However, laypeople worried more, did see the issue as more personally risky, and did think the level of public awareness was higher than experts did. Computer experts felt more capable of taking mitigating actions than laypeople, and were more convinced that these actions were adequate. The implications of these findings for the role of expertise in risk communication are discussed.     

Emerging issues in white space regulation

The secondary use of vacant television channels (TV white spaces) and the reallocation of the digital dividend to provide wireless broadband services are in the final stages of implementation in some countries. Originally seen as a once in a generation opportunity to better allocate UHF spectrum, further digital dividends are now underway as regulators and industry strive to meet exponential increases in demand for mobile data services. Concurrent developments suggest that TV white spaces may be rapidly exploited by global networks with billions of supported devices. The potential for sub-optimal outcomes is identified if the prospect of further digital dividends is not taken into account as technical and regulatory arrangements are put in place to allow productive use of TV white spaces. The importance of considering the potential interaction between further digital dividends and the use of TV white spaces is discussed and technical and regulatory approaches to support optimal outcomes are identified.     

Volatility transmission in emerging European foreign exchange markets

This paper studies the dynamics of volatility transmission between Central European (CE) currencies and the EUR/USD foreign exchange using model-free estimates of daily exchange rate volatility based on intraday data. We formulate a flexible yet parsimonious parametric model in which the daily realized volatility of a given exchange rate depends both on its own lags as well as on the lagged realized volatilities of the other exchange rates. We find evidence of statistically significant intra-regional volatility spillovers among the CE foreign exchange markets. With the exception of the Czech and, prior to the recent turbulent economic events, Polish currencies, we find no significant spillovers running from the EUR/USD to the CE foreign exchange markets. To measure the overall magnitude and evolution of volatility transmission over time, we construct a dynamic version of the Diebold–Yilmaz volatility spillover index and show that volatility spillovers tend to increase in periods characterized by market uncertainty.     

Publikationen deutschsprachiger Forscher in Top-Journals (1. Quartal 2005)

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Wichtige betriebswirtschaftliche Fachkonferenzen

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

More or Less Ambition in the Doha Round: Winners and Losers from Trade Liberalisation with a Development Perspective

What is at stake in the standoff and suspension of the Doha Round of trade talks? What impact would an agreement based on greater or lesser levels of ambition have on developing countries, whose economies are relatively dependent on agriculture? Using the MIRAGE computable general equilibrium model of the global economy, in this article we compare different scenarios for the Doha agricultural and NAMA negotiations, taking real numbers from the proposals on the table from the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) in December 2005. The results for both scenarios demonstrate the high stakes for successful completion of this negotiation given the positions articulated by the countries involved. A cooperative reform outcome by the US and the EU – based on the most ambitious components of their negotiating proposals – delivers noticeably more benefits than an unambitious outcome. We measure the degree of ambition in each scenario by the construction of a Mercantilist Trade Restrictiveness Index and focus the analysis on the impacts on developing countries.     

Deutschlands Sozialversicherung in der Kritik

Die umlagefinanzierte Sozialversicherung steht seit l?ngerem im Brennpunkt der Kritik von Wissenschaftlern, Politikern und den Medien. Als Alternative wird h?ufig eine kapitalfundierte Privatversicherung genannt. Wie unterscheiden sich diese beiden Versicherungen? Inwieweit existieren sie bereits heute nebeneinander? Ist der Weg in eine kapitalfundierte Rentenversicherung unumkehrbar?