Tourism and the Australian economy

Consideration of the economic significance of tourism requires synthesis of a discrete tourism ‘industry’ from selected sectors of the economy and identification of its component activities which may then be used to relate expenditure by tourists, sectorally and spatially, to other elements in the economy. This approach is applied to create a profile of the Australian tourism industry at a national level and shows that tourism contributes a significant proportion to GDP and employs at least 3% of the labour force. This is comparable with the UK and other developed countries.     

Asymmetric Information and the Predictability of Real Estate Returns

This article examines the relation between systematic price changes and the heterogeneity of investors information sets in real estate asset markets. The empirical implications rely on a theoretical economy in which information asymmetry alters the dynamic relation between returns and trading volume. We employ a filter-rule methodology to determine predictability in returns and augment the return-based conditioning set with trading volume. The additional conditioning information is necessary since the model is underspecified when predictability is based on returns alone. Our results provide new insight into the coexistence of informational and noninformational exchange in the speculative markets for real estate assets. Specifically, we find that the predictability of real estate returns is generally more indicative of portfolio rebalancing effects than an adverse-selection problem. These results are unique in addressing the time-variation in information asymmetry.     

UK Assessment: Can Recession be Avoided?

There is a growing danger that the UK will suffer a serious recession in 1999. In this article, Adrian Cooper assesses the risks to the OEF/LBS forecast and considers what steps policy-makers might take to support demand and activity. With the weakness of consumer and business confidence currently posing the biggest threat, they must be seen to be decisive, with further substantial interest rate cuts essential.     

A new contract for welfare: partnership in pensions

The government's Green Paper proposes reducing state pension costs whilst encouraging private sector provision. The success of the proposed ‘stakeholder pension schemes’ depends on regulation. However, regulation can penalise those it is intended to protect. This is a sensitive issue, since stakeholder pension schemes are expected to attract financially vulnerable, lower paid, employees. Whilst the flat rate accrual of the state second pension confers some benefit, certain groups are put in a difficult position by the retention of means-tested benefits.     

Share contracts and macroeconomic externalities

Weitzman's analysis of the share economy contrasts fixed-wage and fixed-share contracts; this paper notes that neither is an optimal labor contract, rendering the comparison suspect. Given this comparison, though, share contracts may be superior to wage contracts in an economy characterized by a “macroeconomic externality,” whereby firm-level employment decisions affect the demand for other firms' goods.     

International Approaches to Global Climate Change

This article surveys the issues involved in slowing the climatechange induced by global emissions of greenhouse gases, especiallycarbon dioxide. It addresses the possible social and economicimpacts of global warming, the elements involved in evaluatingthe pros and cons of steps to reduce those impacts, and theissues involved in engaging most of the worlds states in a cooperativeendeavor to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It expresses doubtsabout the efficacy of a global approach based on national emissiontargets, such as those set by the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, and favorsinstead mutually agreed actions focused on a common emissiontax. It also discusses issues of compliance with an internationalagreement to reduce emissions, actions states can take in theabsence of international agreement, and contingency actionsthat might be considered if the problem proves to be more seriousthan now seems to be the case.