International Propagation of the Credit Crisis: Lessons for Bank Regulation*

The authors use a large sample of non‐U.S. banks to examine the origins and spread of the 2007–2009 crisis. Using both stock market and structural variables, they test whether the effects of the crisis on individual banks are better explained by crisis models or by the VaR‐type analysis of the Basel system. The latter emphasizes risk weightings for individual assets while ignoring linkages that could leave banks exposed to systemic shocks. Consistent with crisis models, the authors find that a small set of pre‐crisis measures of a bank's international linkages, leverage, and the fragility of its liability structure does a good job of discriminating between banks that suffered a large impact and those that did not. (Indeed, these measures explain almost 50% of the differences among banks' stock returns during the crisis period, and almost 40% of the changes in the variability of those returns.) The authors also provide evidence of both a direct linkage among banks' stock returns and an indirect linkage that could reflect either linkages in the real economy or common demands by investors for liquidity. The authors run a “horse race” that demonstrates that simple measures of book leverage were better predictors of bank performance than the Basel capital ratios. They find that banks with lower Basel risk weightings prior to the crisis proved, on average, to be more exposed to the crisis. The authors' explanation is that banks with lower Basel risk measures tended to operate with higher leverage and more aggressive funding strategies, which in turn exposed them to greater crisis risk (even as they conformed to the letter of the Basel system in terms of asset risk measures). Finally, the authors find no evidence that substandard governance was a separate contributing factor to crisis exposure. Banks with substantial international business that were exposed to systemic shocks had high governance scores.     

A response to the critiques of DEA by Dmitruk and Koshevoy, and Bol

We here critique the articles by Dmitruk & Koshevoy (1991, J Econ Theory 55:121–144) and by Bol (1986, J Econ Theory 38:380–385) by showing how to solve the examples they erected to show the non-existence of functions for evaluating performance efficiencies in DEA. We also show that functions satisfying these criteria—and other important criteria as well—were already available prior to the publications of D&K and by Bol and have since been greatly extended to increase the power and scope of DEA.

How Prepared was Australia for International Financial Reporting Standards? The Case of Listed Firms

We measure the preparedness of listed firms for international financial reporting standards (IFRS) by changes in explanations from Australian GAAP to IFRS between the half-year and annual accounts. About one-third of sample firms changed their explanations for earnings, cashflows or equity by averages of about −7%, 67% and 3% respectively. Most changes are less than 5% for earnings and equity, and tax is the item most commonly revised. More profitable firms and firms with more reconciling items are most likely to change an explanation. In a telephone survey of chief financial officers, 70% revealed that the change followed an incorrect application of an accounting rule in the half-year accounts.     

Predictive spatial network analysis for high-resolution transport modeling,applied to cyclist flows,mode choice,and targeting investment

Betweenness is a measure long used in spatial network analysis (SpNA) to predict flows of pedestrians and vehicles, and more recently in public health research. We improve on this approach with a methodology for combining multiple betweenness computations using cross-validated ridge regression to create wide-scale, high-resolution transport models. This enables computationally efficient calibration of distance decay, agglomeration effects, and multiple trip purposes. Together with minimization of the Geoffrey E. Havers (GEH) statistic commonly used to evaluate transport models, this bridges a gap between SpNA and mainstream transport modeling practice. The methodology is demonstrated using models of bicycle transport, where the higher resolution of the SpNA models compared to mainstream (four-step) models is of particular use. Additional models are developed incorporating heterogeneous user preferences (cyclist aversion to motor traffic). Based on network shape and flow data alone the best model gives reasonable correlation against cyclist flows on individual links, weighted to optimize GEH (r² = 0.78, GEH = 1.9). As SpNA models use a single step rather than four, and can be based on flow data alone rather than demographics and surveys, the cost of calibration is lower, ensuring suitability for small-scale infrastructure projects as well as large-scale studies.     

Non‐Recognition of Print Advertising: Emotion Arousal and Gender Effects

Research in the behavioral sciences has found that memory tends to be enhanced by exposure to emotion‐arousing stimuli. While this relationship is not fully understood, the linkage appears to be more pronounced for females than for males. While the majority of prior studies dealing with memory have relied on the use of visual stimuli in a clinical experimental setting, this research examined the impact on memory resulting from exposure to actual print advertisements of varying degrees of arousal‐producing content. Differences in the relationship between arousal and memory were explored for male and female participants. In general, females were found to exhibit higher memory levels than males. As a single combined group, subjects exposed to emotion arousing versus emotion neutral ad. stimuli exhibited no significant difference in memory. For the set of emotion neutral ad. stimuli, no difference in memory was found between sexes. However, retention was significantly higher for females than males for the set of emotion‐arousing stimuli. The study identifies opportunities for further applied memory research.     

The Beginning of the Road to Recovery?

In this most convulsive and confus- ing time in modern American finance, one point stands out: Credit market fail- ure has pushed the economy to the edge, and policymakers are scrambling to pull it back. When investors began to flee the heretofore safe harbor of money-market funds in favor of Treasury bills that guar- anteed a mere 0.04% return, it was plain that confidence in the financial system was breaking down. The government's ad hoc approach, intended to prevent failing institutions from collapsin...     

IS IT IS OR IS IT AIN'T MY OBLIGATION? REGIONAL DEBT IN A FISCAL FEDERATION*

This article studies the repayment of regional debt in a multiregion economy with a central authority: Who pays the obligation issued by a region? With commitment, the central government will use its economy‐wide taxation power in support of its objective to smooth distortionary taxes and consumption across regions. Absent commitment, this tool of the central government may be exploited to induce it to bail out regional government deficits. We characterize the conditions under which bailouts occur and their welfare implications. In particular, we show when the gains from a federation may outweigh the welfare costs of a bailout. We use these insights to comment on actual fiscal relations in three quite different federations: the United States, the European Union, and Argentina.     

Social Exclusion and Transgenic Technology: The Case of Brazilian Agriculture

Many argue that transgenic technology will have wide-ranging implications for farmers in developing nations. A key concern is that competencies may be destroyed by predominantly foreign multinational transgenic technologies, exacerbating problems of social exclusion in the case of subsistence farmers. Conversely, those that fail to adopt the technology may become uncompetitive, particularly in commodity-based export markets. Drawing on interview data conducted in Brazil and supporting data collected in North America, Europe and China, we found that the impact of transgenic technology varies. It has less impact on farmers that adapt the products to their crop systems and environment, and greater negative implications for less formally educated subsistence farmers in consequence of both complexity and compatibility. Earlier attempts at industrializing agriculture through technological innovation led to vastly improved agricultural output and exports, but the benefits of productivity was not equitably distributed [D. Lee: 2005, American Journal of Agricultural Economics 87(5), 1325–1334], nor was it designed to meet specific local environmental and socioeconomic farmer conditions, exacerbating social exclusion. Multinationals attempting to introduce transgenic technology without considering the broader social and ethical implications will invite resistance. We discuss the implications for policy makers, multinationals and small-scale farmers.