LOWER OIL PRICES AND THE UK ECONOMY

Demand for oil remains weak, and OPEC production is running ahead of quota in most member countries, so the possibility that oil prices could fall in the near future has increased. In this Forecast Release we examine the medium-term impact on the UK economy of lower oil prices. We find that, if the government does not intervene to protect the exchange rate, there is an immediate stimulus to output growth. The inflation rate, though, is 1–2 percentage points higher after three years.     

Asymmetric output-gap effects in Phillips Curve and mark-up pricing models: Evidence for the US and the UK

A number of studies have found an asymmetric response of consumer price index inflation to the output gap in the US in simple Phillips curve models. We consider whether there are similar asymmetries in mark‐up pricing models, that is, whether the mark‐up over producers' costs also depends upon the sign of the (adjusted) output gap. The robustness of our findings to the price series is assessed, and also whether price‐output responses in the UK are asymmetric.     

The performance of alternative forecasting methods for SETAR models

We compare a number of methods that have been proposed in the literature for obtaining h-step ahead minimum mean square error forecasts for self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models. These forecasts are compared to those from an AR model. The comparison of forecasting methods is made using Monte Carlo simulation. The Monte-Carlo method of calculating SETAR forecasts is generally at least as good as that of the other methods we consider. An exception is when the disturbances in the SETAR model come from a highly asymmetric distribution, when a Bootstrap method is to be preferred.An empirical application calculates multi-period forecasts from a SETAR model of US gross national product using a number of the forecasting methods. We find that whether there are improvements in forecast performance relative to a linear AR model depends on the historical epoch we select, and whether forecasts are evaluated conditional on the regime the process was in at the time the forecast was made.     

A new approach to forecasting exchange rates

Building on purchasing power parity theory, this paper proposes a new approach to forecasting exchange rates using the Big Mac data from The Economist magazine. Our approach is attractive in three aspects. Firstly, it uses easily-available Big Mac prices as input. These prices avoid several potential problems associated with broad price indexes, such as the consumer price index used in conventional PPP studies. Secondly, this approach provides real-time exchange-rate forecasts at any forecast horizon. These high-frequency forecasts could be appealing to those who want up-to-date exchange-rate forecasts. Finally, as our forecasts are obtained through a simulation procedure, estimation uncertainty is made explicit in our framework that provides the entire distribution of exchange rates, not just a single point estimate. Using exchange rates of six major currencies to illustrate the approach, we compare the Big Mac forecasts with those derived from a random walk and the CPI and find some support for our approach, especially at longer term horizons.     

Day tour itineraries: Searching for the balance between commercial needs and experiential desires

Little research has been conducted examining the factors that influence the development of day tour itineraries. While the literature suggests that a combination of commercial, operational, political and experiential factors contribute to itinerary development, this article argues that it is the business model chosen that affects it the most. Essentially two business models predominate: commission-based and noncommission-based. This study examines the impact of the business model on the selection of day tour itineraries in the Macau Special Administrative Region of China. It finds that experiential values are traded off almost entirely in the itineraries of commission-based tours, while a better balance between experiential and operational considerations drives itinerary choices for noncommission-based tours.     

The matrix approach to evaluating demand equations

This study explores a new data set that contains information both on inputs and outputs for a sample of Portuguese secondary schools. An FDH reference technology is used to determine radial technical efficiency scores and slacks. Although it is known that there is no reason to assume convexity in the study of education efficiency frontiers, this is the first study ever to use FDH at the school level, effectively relaxing the convexity assumption. A two–stage approach is used, whereby the significant environmental variables that explain FDH efficiency scores and slacks are identified. For the purpose of statistical inference, the first application of the bootstrapping algorithms suggested by Simar and Wilson (2003 Simar, L and Wilson, PW. 2000. A general methodology for bootstrapping in nonparametric frontier models. Journal of Applied Statistics, 27: 779–802.  ) is conducted. The study concludes that the unemployment rate, access to health care services, adult education and living infrastructures are determinants of school efficiency. The differences between the coast and the interior of Portugal seem to be more relevant, as far as school efficiency is concerned, than whether or not the school belongs to one of the major coast metropolitan areas.     

The pay parity matrix − a tool for analysing the structure of pay

This article introduces a new tool for measuring relative pay within organizations. We call this innovation the ‘Pay Parity (PP) matrix’, and discuss its advantages and useful properties. The PP matrix allows us to conveniently measure, and draw inferences about, the nature of the whole remuneration schedule, such as its gradient and smoothness. We illustrate the application of the PP matrix by using data on the remuneration of academic executives in universities.     

THE ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION*

In this paper is presented an analysis of the consumption patterns of beer, wine and spirits for Australia using data for the period 1955/56-1985/86. The validity of the demand theory hypotheses demand homogeneity and Slutsky symmetry has been tested using recently developed distribution? free procedures. The findings were that (i) beer and wine were necessities and spirits a strong luxury; (ii) beer and spirits are specific complements; and (iii) the homogeneity and symmetry hypotheses are acceptable. Preference for wine consumption seems to be independent of preference for beer and spirits.