INPUT–OUTPUT ANALYSIS FOR BUSINESS PLANNING: A CASE STUDY OF THE UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY

We present a multi-region input–output (MRIO) model of the University of Sydney embedded in the Australian economy, which forms the centrepiece of a new data-driven framework for strategic forecasting and planning of the University's financial operations. This framework incorporates both Leontief's well-known demand-pull, as well as Ghosh's supply-push exercise. It is therefore able to estimate the immediate financial implications for the University, and the economy-wide flow-on effects, for example as a result of changes in demand for courses by students, or as a result of supply-side changes such as wage increases. We report on recent scenario studies on the financial performance of the teaching and research functions of the University, and the lessons learned for management practice.     

Perspectives on Michael A. Bernstein's A Perilous Progress: Economists and Public Purpose in Twentieth-Century America *

The article compares Joseph Schumpeter's well-known perspectives of long term economic development with those put forward in the 1920's by the German economist Werner Sombart who followed an approach of ‘theoretical historicism’. There was general agreement between Schumpeter and Sombart that capitalism as an economic system was on the decline. Whereas according to Sombart this was attributable to a tendancy towards stagnation; in Schumpeter's view capitalism was doomed due to its success, not for its failure. The strongest parallels are to be found with respect to forces driving the transformation process, at the end of which Schumpeter expected a socialist system whereas Sombart envisioned some kind of mixed economy. The article also discusses the relevance of differences of approaches and of value judgments for the results of both authors' investigations.     

New Approaches in Reward: Their Relevance to the Public Sector

Relationships between the NHS and social care services over the Past 25 years have a poor history. This article examines the strategies that have been used by central government and by local NHS and social care organizations to overcome difficulties of service co-ordination. The authors conclude that policies reflecting ‘networked’ modes of governance may stand the best chance of success, although evidence of improved impact and outcomes still remains scarce.     

Working Across Professional Boundaries: Primary Health Care and Social Care

Effective joint working between health and local authorities, and between health, social services and housing professionals, has long been recognized as vital to the provision of 'seamless' services for the most vulnerable members of society. Unfortunately, the history of formal joint working over the past 20 years has been largely a poor one. In this article the authors outline the findings from a recent study of working alliances across the primary health care/social care boundary. They examine how obstacles are being overcome and how, in some localities, the essential ingredients of inter-professional and inter-organizational trust are leading to the improved integration of services.     

LOWER OIL PRICES AND THE UK ECONOMY

Demand for oil remains weak, and OPEC production is running ahead of quota in most member countries, so the possibility that oil prices could fall in the near future has increased. In this Forecast Release we examine the medium-term impact on the UK economy of lower oil prices. We find that, if the government does not intervene to protect the exchange rate, there is an immediate stimulus to output growth. The inflation rate, though, is 1–2 percentage points higher after three years.     

UK FISCAL CHANGES AND NEW FORESTRY PLANTING

The taxation and grant arrangements for UK forestry were radically changed in April 1988. This paper considers the consequence of these changes for new forestry investment in Scotland by examining five models which describe different site types. The investment appraisals show that after April 1988 forestry will no longer be of interest to investors seeking a tax shelter or wishing to invest borrowed capital. Acceptable real returns to capital will be found only on relatively good quality sites. A major reduction in the rate of new planting is indicated and a shift away from poorer planting land. The rate and location of new planting will depend critically on farmland prices and the extent to which better-quality land is released for planting under the normal consultation procedures.