Converting Clinical Literature to an Insured Population: A Comparison of Models Using Nhanes

Abstract

The use of clinical literature to set risk classification standards for life insurance underwriting stems from the need to set the most accurate standards using the best available information. A necessary hurdle in this process is converting any excess mortality observed in a clinical study to the appropriate rating for use in underwriting. A widely accepted model in the insurance industry, the Excess Death Rate model, treats the excess as additive to the conditional probability of death for an insurance company’s unimpaired class.

In this paper we test the validity of that model versus other common predictive models of excess mortality in an insured population. Applying these models to National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data, we derive estimates for excess mortality from three commonly seen underwriting impairments in what could be considered a clinical population. These estimates are added to an estimate of an insurance company’s unimpaired mortality class and then used to predict deaths in an “insurable” subset of that clinical population.

The Excess Death Rate model performed the best of all models, having the smallest cumulative difference of actual to predicted deaths. The use of publicly available data, such as that in NHANES, could help bridge the gap between clinical literature and its application in insurance underwriting if insurable cohorts can be reliably identified from these generally healthy, ambulatory groups.     

The relationship between factor shares and economic development

The stability of factor shares has long been considered one of the “stylized facts” of macroeconomics. Most factor share studies, however, acknowledge only two factors of production (total capital and total labor), which yields misleading results. I distinguish between reproducible and non-reproducible factors of production. I disentangle physical capital’s share from natural capital’s share and human capital’s share from unskilled labor’s share. Results reveal that non-reproducible factor shares decrease with the stage of economic development, and reproducible factor shares increase with the stage of economic development. This evidence suggests that studies relying on the macroeconomic paradigm of constant factor shares should be revisited. The evidence also supports endogenous growth models that allow technical progress to manifest itself via changes in factor shares.     

Quantitative Restrictions in the Presence of Cost-Based Informational Asymmetries

This study introduces a cost-based informational asymmetry into a two-period model where a domestic (incumbent) firm's behavior in the first period affects the entry decision of a foreign firm in the second period. The effects of import quota policy within this environment are examined and compared to the standard, full-information effects. When quota quantities are set exogenously, the standard effects of quota policy may be significantly altered depending on whether or not policy induces the domestic firm to signal cost structure. For example, higher quotas may discourage foreign entry because of the induced signaling effects of quota policy.     

Toward a theory of customer engagement marketing

Customer engagement marketing—defined as a firm’s deliberate effort to motivate, empower, and measure customer contributions to marketing functions—marks a shift in marketing research and business practice. After defining and differentiating engagement marketing, the authors present a typology of its two primary forms and offer tenets that link specific strategic elements to customer outcomes and thereby firm performance, theorizing that the effectiveness of engagement marketing arises from the establishment of psychological ownership and self-transformation. The authors provide evidence in support of the derived tenets through case illustrations, as well as a quasi-experimental field test of the central tenet of engagement marketing.     

Developing Accounting Regulations that Reflect Public Viewpoints: The Australian Solution to Differential Reporting

In this paper, we analyse the factors that have shaped the approach taken by the Australian Accounting Standards Board (AASB) in addressing the issue of differential reporting in Australia. In contrast to its early adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards in 2005, the AASB has signalled an independent approach to differential reporting. Still in progress at the time of writing, we show how the AASB's approach has been shaped by feedback from key stakeholder groups, as well as by influential individuals and key events. In the face of strongly held views on both sides of the debate, the Board has moved from reliance on discursive techniques to develop and justify proposed policies to embracing to a greater extent, the use of more objective research evidence to resolve the empirical questions presented in the public debate.