Impact of on-field football success on the off-field financial performance of AFL football clubs

In this study, we examine the factors that contribute to the financial performance of clubs in the Australian Football League over the period from 1993 to 2002. Primarily, we examine the association between the on‐field football success of clubs and their level of off‐field financial performance. We find that match attendance is positively related to both short‐term and long‐term success of football clubs and also to the uncertainty as to the match outcome (i.e. the expected closeness of the match). We also find that club membership is highly persistent and is positively related to both the past football success of the club and the marketing expense incurred. Finally, we find that there is a significant association between the level of marketing revenue and the level of on‐field success in the prior 2 years.     

Cattle and Wildlife Competition for Forage: Budget Versus Bioeconomic Analyses of Public Range Improvements in British Columbia

We analyze the gains of public investments in range productivity when cattle compete for forage with wildlife herbivores. Ignoring extra-market values by applying conventional budget analyses leads to higher cattle stocking rates and lower overall social benefits of public range improvements. This is demonstrated numerically for public forage in British Columbia, where privately profitable cattle stocking rates on newly seeded range exceed those that are socially optimal, perhaps by as much as double depending on the assumptions one makes about marginal preservation benefits. This highlights the importance of applying dynamic optimization, bioeconomic models to analyze investments in public range.
Les auteurs analysent quel gain on tire des sommes publiques investies dans la productivité des grands parcours quand les bovins et les herbivores sauvages se livrent concurrence pour les fourrages. Ne pas tenir compte des valeurs extérieures au marché en recourant à des analyses budgétaires ordinaires entraîne une hausse du taux de chargement et une réduction des avantages sociaux globaux issus de la bonification des grands parcours. Il est possible d'en faire la preuve numérique avec les pâturages publics de la Colombie-Britannique, où les parcours nouvellement ensemencés supportent une population de bovins lucrative pour l'éleveur mais supérieure au taux de chargement optimal socialement, parfois même du double, selon les hypothèses qu'on formule sur les avantages d'une préservation marginale. l'étude souligne bien qu'il est important de recourir à une optimisation dynamique, soit d'utiliser les modèles bio-économiques pour analyser les sommes investies dans l'amélioration des pâturages publics.     

Markov Switching Dynamics in REIT Returns: Univariate and Multivariate Evidence on Forecasting Performance

We document the presence of Markov switching regimes in expected returns, variances and the implied reward‐to‐risk ratio of real estate investment trust (REIT) returns and compare them to properties of stocks and bonds. Our evidence suggests that regime switching techniques are more successful over the period 1972–2008 than other time‐series models are. When the analysis is extended to a multivariate setting in which REIT, stock and bond returns are modeled jointly, we find that the data call for the specification of four separate regimes. These result from the absence of synchronicity among the regimes that characterize univariate REIT, stock and bond returns.     

Do social exclusion and remoteness explain the digital divide in Australia? Evidence from a panel data estimation approach

ABSTRACT

Despite rapid digital development in the past two decades, the remote parts of Australia still experience disadvantages with the adoption and diffusion of digital technology. As the adoption of information and communication technology continues to increase at a significant rate, investigating the underlying factors of the digital divide in general and also in the context of social exclusion in Australia is pertinent. The current study fills the gap in the existing body of knowledge by exploring the effect of socio-demographic factors and remoteness on the digital divide landscape with a country-specific focus on Australia. Using state-wide longitudinal data covering the 1998–2015 period within the panel data estimation framework, this study finds that digital divide is significantly associated with socio-demographic factors and remoteness in Australia. Moreover, the findings affirm that in addition to telecommunication infrastructure development, policymakers should also underscore socio-demographic factors in shaping digital inclusion strategies.     

Network externalities in consumer spending on lottery games: evidence from Spain

We use data from two nationally representative Spanish surveys in 2005 and 2006 to investigate spending on lottery games. Estimates from Tobit and double hurdle models of participation in lottery markets and spending on lottery tickets find that frequent participation in one game is not associated with an increased or decreased probability of participating in other games, but is associated with increased spending on other games. Consumer spending on different lottery games exhibits inter-related consumption decisions. Also, the assumptions underlying the double hurdle model, but not the Tobit model, better describe consumer spending on lottery tickets in Spain.     

The market reaction to bank regulatory reports

We investigate the role of bank regulatory reports in the information environments of banks. Our findings are as follows. (1) Call Reports but not FR Y-9Cs elicit economically significant stock price and volume reactions when they are publicly released, despite the fact that Call Reports usually follow earnings announcements. (2) Some of the reaction is traceable to a schedule dealing with mortgage lending and servicing. (3) The release of the Call Reports is tightly clustered around the 30th day after quarter-end. (4) After bank regulators undertook a “modernization project” to speed the processing and public dissemination of regulatory reports, the banking industry routinely experiences abnormal stock price volatility and trading volume on the 30th day of the quarter. (5) The market reaction increased after media coverage of this study. Our findings are of interest to regulators who require and monitor the reports, banks that prepare the reports, investors who may use the reports, and academics who can base research designs on the timing patterns we uncover.     

Surviving Chapter 11 Bankruptcies: Duration and Payoff?

Three of the authors previously developed a model to predict the duration of Chapter 11 bankruptcy and the payoff to shareholders ( Partington et al ., 2001 ). This work augments that study using a much larger sample to re-estimate the model and assess its stability. It also provides an opportunity for out-of-sample testing of predictive accuracy. The resulting models are based on Cox's proportional hazards model and the current article points to the need to test two important assumptions underlying the model. First, that the hazards are proportional and, second, that censoring is independent of the event studied. Using the extended data set, all the previously significant accounting variables drop out of the model and only two covariates of the original model remain significant. These are the market wide credit spread and the market capitalization of the firm, both measured immediately prior to the firm's entry to Chapter 11. Receiver operating characteristic curves are then used to assess the predictive accuracy of the original and extended models. The results show that Lachenbruch tests can provide a misleading indication of predictive ability out of sample. Using the Lachenbruch method of in-sample testing, both models show predictive power, but in a true out-of-sample test they fail dismally. The lessons of this work are relevant to better predicting the gains and losses likely to accrue to shareholders of companies in Chapter 11 bankruptcy and in similar administrative arrangements in other jurisdictions.     

Integrating Technology Traits and Producer Heterogeneity: A Mixed-Multinomial Model of Genetically Modified Corn Adoption

This article proposes a model of technology adoption that integrates demand for individual traits of new technologies with the potential for heterogeneity based on farm and farmer characteristics. The model is applied to recent genetically modified corn adoption data from Minnesota and Wisconsin farmers, using a mixed-multinomial logit (MMNL) model to estimate the effects of traits and farm and farmer characteristics on adoption outcomes. This approach allows explicit recovery of estimates of farmers' shadow prices for individual technology traits. Results show the importance of producer and regional heterogeneity in preferences for seed traits.