Entry, Expansion, and Intensity in the US Export Boom, 1987–1992

US exports grew at 10.3% per year from 1987 to 1992, far faster than the economy as a whole. This paper examines sources of the manufacturing export boom, including entry, firm expansion, and export intensity. Most of the increase in exports came from increasing export intensity at existing exporters rather than from new entry into exporting. The small role of entry relative to export intensity offers support for the importance of sunk costs in the export market. Changes in exchange rates and rises in foreign income drove most of the export increase, while plant productivity increases played a smaller role.     

The Potential Impact of Tobacco Biopharming: The Case of Human Serum Albumin

Biopharming stands to significantly expand the uses of many agricultural crops. This article examines the potential size and distribution of welfare gains from biopharming transgenic tobacco as a source of human serum albumin (HSA) using an economic surplus model under imperfect competition. The results suggest that HSA from transgenic tobacco will generate annual profits for the innovating firm of between $25 million and $49 million. On the other hand, consumers are unlikely to benefit during the patent life of the product given the innovator's market power.     

INFLATION MEASUREMENT,INFLATION RISK,AND THE PRICING OF TREASURY BILLS

One explanation for the high real interest rates on Treasury bills during the period from 1980 to 1985 is that the risk premium had risen. A procedure for testing this hypothesis is to apply the Black version of the capital asset pricing model to real Treasury bill returns. This paper examines that procedure in detail. The main conclusion is that nonstationarity and measurement error, which are always impediments to empirical implementation of the CAPM, are particularly difficult to handle when estimating changes in Treasury bill risk premiums. Furthermore, the behavior of the premium depends on the index used to measure inflation.     

Balance on unbalanced growth

Conclusions In his paper Baumol raised a number of important issues. Included are several knotty problems of an empirical nature: Can measures of outputs which we normally classify as services be reasonably divorced from measurement of the inputs of labor involved in their provision? Can commodities be satisfactorily divided into two classes: those for which the technology of production is inherently stagnant, and those for which technological progress is possible? It should be clear that in this paper no attempt has been made to address these or any other factual questions.What has been attempted is a demonstration that, on their own grounds, Baumol's rather pessimistic propositions about the behavior of an economy undergoing unbalanced productivity change can be balanced by rather more positive ones. Furthermore, those grounds have themselves been questioned: It has been argued that few normative implications can be drawn from the movement of relative prices, especially in the one-factor world used illustratively by Baumol, that a balanced expansion path is unlikely to be desired in such a world, and that little significance can be attached to changes in a real output index in this context. Finally, it has been shown that assuming a one-factor world results in hiding some of the important possibilities (for relative commodity and factor price behavior) under unbalanced growth. In particular, with not very unlikely sorts of factor complementarity, two of Baumol's propositions no longer hold.With 6 FiguresThe author is assistant professor of economics at Princeton University. He wishes to thank the Brookings Institution and the Ford Foundation for financial support which facilitated the writing of this paper, and to acknowledge helpful discussions with colleagues William J. Baumol, Richard R. Cornwall and Dennis E. Smallwood.     

The hospital capital crisis: issues for trustees

The erosion of the capital position in the hospital industry--one of the most complex and overregulated industries in the United States--is a major challenge to trustees. Hospital trustees have often neglected to examine their hospitals' capital needs on more than a project-by-project basis. In dealing with their hospitals' capital needs, trustees, most of whom are successful business people, too often take off their "business" hats and put on their "social worker" hats. In doing so they not only neglect to subject their hospitals' capital and operating programs to searching cost-benefit review, but they also overlook much useful knowledge about how to use corporate organization to shelter new ventures and strengthen their hospitals' market position and solvency. In this article, the authors discuss how hospitals can adopt successful corporate restructurings and strategies to respond to the adverse financial developments they will have to face in the coming years.     

Ex Ante Research Evaluation and Regional Trade Flows: Maize in Kenya

Public sector investment in agricultural research is an important component of developing country efforts to bolster staple cereal production in the face of rapid population growth. This paper uses a spatial equilibrium model to evaluate the potential impact of maize research in six regions of Kenya. The application highlights the important role of research in meeting future food needs, as well as the geographic variability of producer and consumer benefits from technology and trade policy options. Despite significant research induced supply shifts, Kenya will require additional production increases of 1.5 to 2 per cent per year to meet stated goals of self-sufficiency in maize production with open markets. Import restrictions can ensure self-sufficiency and generate producer welfare gains at greater expense to the majority of Kenyans who are net consumers of maize. In the debate over trade policy, public sector investments in maize research should be seen as a potential mechanism to compensate producers for welfare losses associated with market liberalisation.     

Seeing One's Intellectual Roots: A review essay

The Review of Austrian Economics -     

Integrating Technology Traits and Producer Heterogeneity: A Mixed-Multinomial Model of Genetically Modified Corn Adoption

This article proposes a model of technology adoption that integrates demand for individual traits of new technologies with the potential for heterogeneity based on farm and farmer characteristics. The model is applied to recent genetically modified corn adoption data from Minnesota and Wisconsin farmers, using a mixed-multinomial logit (MMNL) model to estimate the effects of traits and farm and farmer characteristics on adoption outcomes. This approach allows explicit recovery of estimates of farmers' shadow prices for individual technology traits. Results show the importance of producer and regional heterogeneity in preferences for seed traits.     

ESG preferences,risk and return

There are two primary factors that affect expected returns for companies with high ESG (environmental, social and governance) ratings—investor preferences and risk. Although investor preferences for highly rated ESG companies can lower the cost of capital, the flip side of the coin is lower expected returns for investors. Regarding risk, the jury remains out on whether there is an ESG-related risk factor. However, to the extent, ESG is a risk factor it also points towards lower expected returns for investments in highly rated companies. Though ESG investing may have social benefits, higher expected returns for investors are not among them.