LONGER‐RUN EFFECTS OF ANTI‐POVERTY POLICIES ON DISADVANTAGED NEIGHBORHOODS

We assess evidence on the longer‐run effects of minimum wages, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and welfare on key economic indicators of economic self‐sufficiency in disadvantaged neighborhoods. The evidence suggests that the longer‐run effects of the Earned Income Tax Credit are to increase employment and to reduce poverty and public assistance. We also find some evidence consistent with higher welfare benefits having longer‐run adverse effects, and stronger evidence that tighter welfare time limits reduce poverty and public assistance in the longer‐run. The evidence on the longer‐run effects of the minimum wage on poverty and public assistance is not robust. (JEL J22, J23, J38)     

Selling to the moneyed masses

Over the past decade, the distribution of household incomes has shifted so much that a much larger proportion of consumers now earn significantly higher-than-average incomes--while still falling short of being truly rich. As a result, what used to be a no-man's-land for new product introductions has in many categories become an extremely profitable "new middle ground." How can marketers capitalize on this new territory? The key, say the authors, is to rethink the positioning and design of offerings and the ways they can be brought to market. Take, for instance, how Procter & Gamble redefined the positioning map for tooth-whitening solutions. A decade ago, dental centers were popularizing expensive bleaching techniques that put the price of a professionally brightened smile in the 400 dollars range. At the low end, consumers also had the choice of whitening toothpastes that cost anywhere from 2 dollars to 8 dollars. P&G wisely positioned itself between the two ends, successfully targeting the new mass market with its 35 dollars Whitestrips. In product categories where it's clear the middle ground has already been populated, it's important for companies to design or redesign offerings to compete. An example is the Polo shirt. How do you sell a man yet another one after he's bought every color he wants? Add some features, and call it a golf shirt. Here, marketers have introduced designs based on the concept of "occasional use" in order to stand out. Finally, companies wishing to reach the "almost rich" can change how they go to market. Perhaps no mass retailer has made a stronger bid for the mass affluent than Target Stores, which has pioneered a focus the company itself characterizes as upscale discount. The strategy has made Target an everyday shopping phenomenon among well-heeled urbanites and prosperous professionals.     

Screening‐oriented recruitment messages: Antecedents and relationships with applicant pool quality

The ability of firms to attract qualified job applicants is a critical component of the human resource management process. However, while a large body of research has examined the relationship between firm recruitment practices and applicant pool attributes, very little research has investigated what factors are associated with organizational decision makers' utilization of specific recruitment tactics. We draw on labor economics, sociological, and agency theoretical perspectives to make predictions regarding the use of screening‐oriented recruitment messages in actual web‐based job advertisements. Results suggest that perceptions of labor supply, recruiting firm reputation, and the use of quality‐based compensation incentives are associated with use of screening‐oriented messages, which in turn are associated with applicant pool quality. These findings hold important theoretical insights into the factors shaping firm recruitment activity and provide practical strategic implications for managing firm recruitment objectives. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

历史的教训：逆向思维者胜

经济动荡期的管理是一种至关重要的商业能力。在经济低迷期,良好的企业管理不仅能够使企业的经营业绩优异于竞争对手,而且,在经济低迷期建立起来的竞争优势更具有可持续性。     

Price determination and dynamic adjustments: An inverse demand system approach to meat products in the United States

In this study the process of retail meat price determination is depicted in the form of an inverse demand system taking into consideration the dynamic adjustments present in monthly consumption data. The general dynamic framework identifies both long run and short run effects in a systematic manner and allows direct estimation of the long run price and scale flexibilities that are consistent with theory. The empirical application based on monthly U.S. meat products data provides reasonable and promising results.The authors are senior econometrician, Department of Risk Management, TRS, American Express Co., Phoenix, and assistant professor, Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, respectively. The work was performed when the first author was an assistant research scientist at the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Department of Economics, Iowa State University, Ames. Journal Paper No. J-15784 of the Iowa Agriculture and Home Economics Experiment Station, Ames, Iowa. Project No. 3109.     

Were internal capital markets affected by the ‘perfect’ pension storm?

We examine capital expenditures in multi-segment firms before and after the “perfect storm” that affected pension plans between 2000 and 2002, when bond yields and stock prices both fell precipitously. Our sample of firms went from having overfunded to underfunded pension plans as a result of the storm. We examine the segment-level relation between investment, Tobin's q, and cash flow both before and after the event. We find mixed evidence on the change in the relation between investment and q, which may be a result of measurement error in q. We find stronger evidence for the conclusion that after the pension storm, firms with underfunded pension plans directed more investment towards segments that produce higher cash flow.     

Agglomeration and the choice between acquisitions and alliances: An information economics perspective

Research summary : This research extends agglomeration theory by joining it with information economics research to better understand the determinants of firms' organizational governance choices. We argue that co‐location in a common geographic cluster fosters lower levels of information asymmetry between exchange partners and thus leads firms to employ acquisitions rather than alliances for their external corporate development activities. We further extend agglomeration theory by arguing that the impact of sharing a cluster location on acquisitions versus alliances strengthens with the level and dissimilarity of the exchange partners' knowledge‐based resources as well as with the intra‐cluster geographic proximity of the partners. Evidence from a sample of over 1,100 alliance and acquisition transactions in the U.S. semiconductor industry provides support for our hypotheses. Managerial summary : This paper investigates the role of geographical clustering for firms' external corporate development activities in acquisitions and alliances. We explain how better information is likely to be available among firms co‐located in the same cluster. This suggests that managers should have less need to use alliances over acquisitions as a means of reducing the risk of adverse selection (e.g., overpaying for acquisitions). Our investigation of over 1,100 transactions in the U.S. semiconductor industry shows that common cluster co‐location increases the probability of acquisition relative to alliance. Our arguments and evidence also indicate that the information‐related benefits of cluster co‐location are even more impactful when the parties have more divergent technology bases, possess larger stocks of knowledge‐based resources, or are located in closer geographic proximity. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

MODELLING A REGIME‐SHIFTING BEVERIDGE CURVE

This paper offers new insights into Beveridge curve analysis by modelling the unemployment–vacancy rate relationship within a Markov regime‐switching environment in which the probabilities of curve‐shifting are determined endogenously by shift factors. Shift factors include structural factors such as labour market participation and net migration, while cyclical variables include GDP growth, the real rate of interest, and labour productivity. This approach enables us to estimate regime‐specific parameters and to assess the role played by these factors in influencing the transition probabilities of switching between regimes. Using New Zealand data, we show that increases in the participation rate have shifted the Beveridge curve inward, while increases in net migration have shifted the curve outward.     

An additively separable representation in the Savage framework

This paper proposes necessary and sufficient conditions for an additively separable representation of preferences in the Savage framework (where the objects of choice are acts: measurable functions from an infinite set of states to a potentially finite set of consequences). A preference relation over acts is represented by the integral over the subset of the product of the state space and the consequence space which corresponds to the act, where this integral is calculated with respect to an evaluation measure on this space. The result requires neither Savage's P3 (monotonicity) nor his P4 (weak comparative probability). Nevertheless, the representation it provides is as useful as Savage's for many economic applications.     

2013 Nobel Prize Revisited: Do Shiller's Models Really Have Predictive Power?

The authors take a critical view of the investment approach advocated by recent Nobel laureate Robert Shiller. A critic of efficient markets theory, Shiller has proposed that investors, when attempting to determine whether the S&P Index is under‐ or overvalued, should use a P/E ratio whose denominator is the 120‐month moving average of the company's EPS. But the authors find that such an approach does not provide consistently superior insights to those provided by conventional PEs—and that, for example, the use of both conventional and Shiller PE multiples would have indicated a highly overvalued S&P not only in early 2000—before the bursting of the dotcom bubble—but also in 1996, when Fed Governor Greenspan spoke prematurely of “irrational exuberance.” The authors also show that both the Shiller PE and the conventional PE ratios fail a critical statistical test: they are not mean‐reverting—and as a consequence, both ratios can be expected to indicate either undervaluation or overvaluation for very long periods of time. Complicating matters, current earnings are useful to investors in predicting future stock prices only insofar as they provide a reliable guide to future earnings and cash flows. And as one would expect in competitive capital markets, even perfect foreknowledge of future earnings is not likely to be much help since, according to the authors' analysis, five‐year earnings explain on average less than 20% of the variation in prices over consecutive five‐year periods.