The standard of living debate,rational expectations,and neutrality: Some evidence from the industrial revolution

There exists a debate among economic historians concerning the ‘standard of living’ of the British working class during the industrial revolution. In this debate, trends in real wages figure prominently and virtually all long- and short-term real wage movements are attributed to price level variation. This attribution conflicts with recent ‘neutrality’ propositions associated with rational expectations. We test a version of the rational expectations-neutrality hypothesis by examining whether prices caused real wages in the period 1790–1850. This period is of particular interest due to the competitive nature of the British economy at that time. We find the hypothesis is consistent with the data. This is in contrast to all existing interpretations of the period.     

Foreign owners and American cement: Old cartel hands,or new kids on the block?

In 1961, all portland cement producing capacity in the United States was owned by companies domiciled here. Thirty years later, about 70% was controlled by foreign owners, mostly European. It has been suggested by various authorities — academic economists, the business press, even cement executives — that foreign governments' tolerance for formal or tacit collusion would bring the American cement industry a kind of ‘price discipline’ that it has been largely unable to practice since 1948. This contention is tested as an hypothesis, using regional data from the U.S. Bureau of Mines and the Portland Cement Association. The test shows either no or a negative relation between foreign control and the level of regional cement prices. At the same time, we observe the traditional positive relation between concentration (HHI) and prices. The results imply that horizontal mergers between cement producers are a better subject for the attention of public policy than where they are owned.     

Economic Perspectives on Nutrition Policy Evaluation

Too much food energy intake (relative to expenditure) and unbalanced diets are implicated in a range of diseases that impose major burdens on healthcare systems and cause pain and suffering. Governments have responded by introducing a range of measures, mainly targeting information and education, largely to children. However, more interventionist measures have been advocated and, in the past year, various food taxes have been introduced in Denmark, Hungary and France. The Address discusses evaluation of policies, particularly in the light of alternative theories of diet choice (rational choice, systematically irrational, automatic). The public health approach uses quality adjusted life years but fails to distinguish between private and social benefits and takes no account of the drivers of food choice behaviour. The economic approach, based on informed choice, makes the distinction between private and social benefits (if not always explicitly) but struggles to evaluate policies that change utility functions and with behavioural assumptions other than traditional rationality. Alternative assumptions and approaches could put the cost of unhealthy eating anywhere between £10 billion and £100 billion per annum in the UK. Evidence suggests that information measures (to perform or persuade) do not much change diets, nor do they tackle the externality element of unhealthy eating. They may, however, help change long‐term social norms. More interventionist measures like taxes improve social welfare (according to the compensation principle) and reduce health inequalities but are regressive, like all sin taxes. Almost all interventions pass cost‐effectiveness tests.     

Not just surviving,but thriving: perceived strengths of successful US‐based travel agencies

In‐depth interviews with owners of 19 exceptionally successful US‐based travel agencies were analyzed using a ground theory approach to reveal customer service excellence, employee enrichment and effective networking as three core perceived strengths that comprise a theme of ‘relationship building’. The latter is supported by a theme of ‘facilitation’ entailing diligent client selection, a culture of learning, high adaptability (related to technology and product realignment), scale, adherence to business basics, and owner optimism. Together, both themes suggest a macro‐theme of ‘deep commitment’. The results provide guidelines for aspiring travel agency owners. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Materiality of Accounting Errors: Evidence from SEC Comment Letters

We gain unique insights into materiality judgments about accounting errors by examining SEC comment letter correspondence. We document that managers typically use multiple quantitative benchmarks in their materiality analyses, with earnings being the most common benchmark. In most of the cases we review, managers deem the error immaterial despite its exceeding the traditional “5 percent of earnings” rule of thumb, often in multiple periods and by a large degree. Instead of attempting to conceal these overages, managers tend to forthrightly acknowledge them, often asserting that the benchmark is abnormally low during the violation period. We find that 17–26 percent of these “low benchmark” assertions are suspect (although none of these “low benchmark” assertions are challenged by the SEC). We also document substantial variation in the extent to which qualitative factors are mentioned as considerations. The SEC generally is deferential toward managers' arguments and judgments but is more likely to challenge immateriality claims when managers admit there are qualitative factors that indicate errors are material.     

Least-squares forecast averaging

This paper proposes forecast combination based on the method of Mallows Model Averaging (MMA). The method selects forecast weights by minimizing a Mallows criterion. This criterion is an asymptotically unbiased estimate of both the in-sample mean-squared error (MSE) and the out-of-sample one-step-ahead mean-squared forecast error (MSFE). Furthermore, the MMA weights are asymptotically mean-square optimal in the absence of time-series dependence. We show how to compute MMA weights in forecasting settings, and investigate the performance of the method in simple but illustrative simulation environments. We find that the MMA forecasts have low MSFE and have much lower maximum regret than other feasible forecasting methods, including equal weighting, BIC selection, weighted BIC, AIC selection, weighted AIC, Bates–Granger combination, predictive least squares, and Granger–Ramanathan combination.     

Return enhancement trading strategies for size based portfolios

Recent theoretical work suggests that definitions of market efficiency that allow for the possibility of time-varying risk-premia will generally lead to return sign predictability. Consistent with this theory, we show that a logit model based on the lagged value of the market risk premium is useful for successfully predicting the return sign for CRSP small decile portfolio returns, but not large ones. We additionally employ this model in market timing simulations of micro-cap mutual funds in which investment can actually be made. The results indicate that a market-timing strategy based on our return-sign forecasting model outperforms a buy-and-hold strategy for 13 of 14 micro-cap funds studied. On average, the buy-and-hold strategy produces an average compound return of 11.98% per annum versus an average of 16.60% for the market-timing strategy. Nevertheless, trading restrictions make the return-sign forecasting model more practical to employ by the micro-cap fund portfolio manager rather than the individual fund investor.

Giving great advice. Interview by Thomas A Stewart and Gardiner Morse

Few deal makers have been at it as long, and at such a high level, as Bruce Wasserstein, the chairman and CEO of the financial advisory and asset-management firm Lazard. In this edited interview, two HBR editors explore how he creates value as a manager, as a deal maker, and as a counselor to CEOs. Wasserstein, who has been a major figure in mergers and acquisitions for more than 30 years, talks about attracting and managing talent, building and sustaining a knowledge business, sizing up industries and companies, and crafting advice to help CEOs unlock value. At the heart of his approach is a singular ability to dissect a strategy's underlying premises in order to figure out whether a plan or deal "makes sense." Part of that determination involves understanding the broader context: Where is the industry going? What external factors will affect it? Such sensemaking informs every move Wasserstein makes, and it has paid off handsomely. In his career, he has helped broker more than a thousand deals, worth hundreds of billions of dollars. His intellect, creativity, and doggedness are what allow him to pick apart the most complex problems and devise novel solutions. In an age of specialization, he recognizes the importance of connecting the dots; he draws on the knowledge and skills of creative generalists as well as industry and regional specialists when setting up and executing deals. Wasserstein studied at Harvard University's business and law schools and at Cambridge University, helped lead First Boston's M&A practice, cofounded the investment-banking firm Wasserstein Perella Group, and then joined Lazard, which he famously took public in 2005 after disassembling a century and a half of family ownership. He is the 2007 recipient of Harvard Law School's Great Negotiator Award.     

Information shares in the US Treasury market

This paper highlights the previously neglected role of the futures markets in US Treasury price discovery. The estimates of 5- and 10-year GovPX spot market information shares typically fail to reach 50% from 1999 on. The GovPX information shares for the 2-year contract are higher than those of the 5- and 10-year maturities but also decline after 1998. Relative bid-ask spreads, number of trades, and realized volatility are statistically significant and explain up to 21% of daily information shares. In roughly 1/4 of cases when public information is released, the futures market gains information share, but macroeconomic announcements rarely explain information shares independently of liquidity.     

Australian momentum: performance,capacity and the GFC effect

This paper assesses the performance of momentum strategies in Australia, and how they were affected by the GFC. This paper is the first to address the issue of the dollar capacity of momentum strategies in the Australian market. We find evidence of a strong momentum effect in Australia amongst the S&P/ASX200 constituents. We find that momentum portfolios suffered during the GFC, but the effect was not persistent. Finally, we show that the capacity of the momentum effect in Australia is large enough in dollar terms to reject the assertion that momentum is more of a theoretical than a practical construct.