Survival of the fittest: Technical assistance,survival and growth of small businesses and implications for public policy

Concerns about the value of government programs that provide management and technical assistance have been the subject of debate among researchers and policymakers. Based on an analysis of a multiyear survey sponsored by the U.S. Small Business Administration's Office of Entrepreneurial Development, we examine the relationship between managerial and technical assistance and firm survival, as well as the relationship between the characteristics of technical assistance and financial and employment growth. Overall, findings suggest that managerial and technical assistance have a positive effect on both survival and growth, but these effects depend on the size of the firm, characteristics of the counseling experience, as well as age and other demographic differences. Implications for public policy are discussed.     

Does sentiment explain consumption?

This paper examines whether “consumer sentiment,” an often neglected variable, explains consumption expenditures for Australia. Since household consumption accounts for more than 60 percent of U.S. GDP and a similar proportion in other developed economies, fluctuations in consumption may result in significant changes in the state of the economy. Therefore, we develop a theoretical model that suggests why consumer sentiment may influence consumption expenditures. Furthermore, using a carefully specified consumption function as the “test-bed,” we consider empirically whether there is an independent impact of sentiment on consumption. Our results suggest that consumer sentiment does influence variations in consumption expenditure.     

EARLY WITHDRAWALS FROM RETIREMENT ACCOUNTS DURING THE GREAT RECESSION

Early withdrawals from retirement accounts are a double‐edged sword, because withdrawals reduce retirement resources, but they also allow individuals to smooth consumption when they experience demographic and economic shocks. Using tax data, we show that preretirement withdrawals increased between 2004 and 2010, especially after 2007, but early withdrawal rates are substantial (relative to new contributions) in all those years. Early withdrawal events are strongly correlated with shocks to income and marital status, and lower‐income taxpayers are more likely to experience the types of shocks associated with early withdrawals and more likely to have a taxable withdrawal when they experience a given shock. (JEL G23, H24, H31)