International Finance: Pushing the Statistical Envelope to Meet the Challenges of Globalization

This paper treats three key areas where statisticians are pushing the envelope to meet the challenges of providing the basis for sound analysis and thus for sound policy in pursuit of assuring prosperity and preventing financial crises. In one area, the challenge is to provide comprehensive and timely data on foreign direct investment. In another area, the challenge is similar-to provide comprehensive and timely data on public debt. Moreover, a whole new area of statistics, dealing with the health of the financial sector, is being developed in recognition that one country's financial health or sickness affects its neighbors and many others in a world of complex global ties.     

The link between output and contracts under hyperinflation

In the conventional Keynesian model, nominal wage contracts (acting as a friction) transmit monetary shocks to real variables. In contrast, the new classical or real business cycle theory claims that firms and workers ignore the behavior of the actual real wage and instead generate an efficient level of employment (hence, output) based on a shadow real wage. Using Brazilian data covering a period during which the economy suffered hyperinflation and wage contracts were indexed by the government, results show that these fixed nominal wage contracts did not generate a nonneutrality of money as proposed by the Keynesian model. Instead, results support the view that contracts cannot propagate nominal shocks.     

Trends in U.S. economics majors: Why the decline in the 1990s?

This paper identifies factors that are important in explaining recent trends in undergraduate economics majors. The decline in economics majors during the 1990s has caused concern in the profession because the declining trend had been attributed to a general decrease in student interest in the economics major. This study uses least squares regression techniques to explain trends in economics bechelor degrees granted by 20 New Jersey colleges and universities during the 1979–2000 period, with implications for the national level. The results show that trends in economics majors are primarily a function of demographic trends, business cycle conditions, and the desire to attend post-graduate professional school. None-the-less, the authors conclude that the declining trend in economics majors in the 1990s is still cause for concern because understanding economic principles is important in the development of a globally competitive workforce.     

The origin of spatial interaction

This paper uses spatial empirical methods to detect and analyze trade patterns in a historical data set on Chinese rice prices. Our results suggest that spatial features were important for the expansion of interregional trade. Geography dictates, first, over what distances trade was possible in different regions, because the costs of ship transport were considerably below those for land transport. Spatial features also influence the direction in which a trading network is expanding. Moreover, our analysis captures the impact of new trade routes both within and outside the trading areas.     

Learning to Punish: Experimental Evidence from a Sequential Step-Level Public Goods Game

This paper studies how subjects in a three-person sequential step-level public good game learn to punish free riders more over time. Our current work makes several additions to the literature on other regarding behavior. First, our experiment provides evidence that subjects care about the actions that lead to an outcome as well as the outcome itself, replicating the results of A. Falk, E. Fehr and U. Fischbacher (Economic Inquiry, in press), J. Brandts and C. Solà (Games and Economic Behavior, 36(2), 138–157, 2001.) and J.H. Kagel and K. Wolfe (Working paper, Ohio State University, 1999). Second, our experiment provides one of the first tests of the newer theories of reciprocity by A. Falk and U. Fischbacher (Working paper, University of Zurich, 2000) and G. Charness and M. Rabin (Quarterly Journal of Economics, in press) that take a psychological games approach. We find that these theories fail to explain the experimental data. Finally, we examine the mechanism by which subjects learn to punish free-riding more ofter over time.     

An exploration of older worker flexible working arrangements in smaller firms

This article explores flexible working arrangements (FWAs) for older workers in smaller UK firms. We address three questions: how far older workers need and value FWAs, the type of FWAs they need, and whether smaller firms can offer these FWAs. We draw on 46 semi‐structured interviews from six smaller case study firms to present a qualitative exploration of both owner‐manager and (under‐researched) worker perspectives. We evidence the offer and importance of temporal and work‐role FWAs, together with the use of i‐deals and ad hoc FWAs in meeting the needs of this diverse group. We make three contributions: first, theoretically, in arguing for an extended definition of FWAs and understanding formality of offer; second, to practice, in highlighting FWA mechanisms appropriate to older workers; third, to policy, in questioning the effectiveness of both the business case approach to older worker FWAs in smaller firms and policy's positioning of older workers as a homogeneous group.     

Regime dependent determinants of credit default swap spreads

Credit default swap (CDS) spreads display pronounced regime specific behaviour. A Markov switching model of the determinants of changes in the iTraxx Europe indices demonstrates that they are extremely sensitive to stock volatility during periods of CDS market turbulence. But in ordinary market circumstances CDS spreads are more sensitive to stock returns than they are to stock volatility. Equity hedge ratios are three or four times larger during the turbulent period, which explains why previous research on single-regime models finds stock positions to be ineffective hedges for default swaps. Interest rate movements do not affect the financial sector iTraxx indices and they only have a significant effect on the other indices when the spreads are not excessively volatile. Raising interest rates may decrease the probability of credit spreads entering a volatile period.     

Developing a stress testing framework based on market risk models

The Basel 2 Accord requires regulatory capital to cover stress tests, yet no coherent and objective framework for stress testing portfolios exists. We propose a new methodology for stress testing in the context of market risk models that can incorporate both volatility clustering and heavy tails. Empirical results compare the performance of eight risk models with four possible conditional and unconditional return distributions over different rolling estimation periods. When applied to major currency pairs using daily data spanning more than 20 years we find that stress test results should have little impact on current levels of foreign exchange regulatory capital.     

Knowledge Effects on Curiosity and New Product Advertising

Abstract

Advertisers commonly advocate when writing ad copy, “Keep it simple!” In keeping with this belief, ads are typically written at less than the tenth grade level. The authors assert that this view may be too simple in view of the complex processes underlying cognitive processing. In an experiment where print ads did not vary in terms of their concreteness, the authors found that increasing levels of readability made no differences in recall, attitudinal judgments or purchase intent.     

Using World Café and drama to explore older people's experience of financial products and services

This paper examines a novel strategy to get older people talking about their financial needs and equity release. A questionnaire was used to identify issues which were then written into a drama on equity release products and bank accounts. This dramatic representation of the issues preceded discussion among older people at a World Café event – a format that involves a series of circulating focus groups where concepts can be discussed in depth and recorded. The drama offered an initial stimulus of alternative and opposing opinions and facilitated conversation about financial products and services which are often considered uninteresting and private. The aim was to record ideas in the discussions that would benefit the production and design of innovative financial products that would meet the needs of people over 50 years. Further, as a technique, the combination of drama, used to stimulate discussion, and the World Café format, to obtain and record consumer opinions, arguably offers innovative options to researchers in other sectors of product or service consumption.