基于数值模拟下的中国外汇储备潜在损失分析

外汇储备余额持续积累加剧了外汇储备资产潜在损失的进一步扩大。文章通过对中国外汇储备积累方式的分析,认为造成外汇储备损失的主要路径有三个:冲销债券的利息支付、国际短期资本的投机和人民币对美元汇率升值。在此基础上,文章数值模拟了不同路径下的外汇储备潜在损失,得出以下结论:一是人民币过快升值会加重我国外汇储备损失,应根据我国金融市场的发展状况,逐步改革汇率体系,令人民币更富弹性;二是改变中国外汇储备管理模式,从以往的被动型、防御型模式变成主动型、投资型模式,一方面逐步放松资本账户管制,允许个人和机构海外投资,另一方面加大中国的主权财富基金——中国投资公司的投资力度和规模,通过市场化手段获得更高收益。     

我国高储蓄率的成因及其对策探析

本文从储蓄结构深化研究我国高储蓄率的成因,提出降低我国储蓄率的思路主要是降低企业储蓄率和政府储蓄率。具体对策是尽快出台调整企业储蓄率政策;进一步完善社会保障体系;改革金融市场、健全金融机构及完善金融体制,还有合理调节收入分配差距。     

美国县级总体规划文本框架要素界定和组织结构的启示

通过对比我国县级土地利用总体规划和美国加州县级总体规划文本框架要素的界定情况及组织结构,分析目前我国县级土地利用总体规划文本框架要素及其组织存在的问题。目前我国县级土地利用总体规划的文本框架在目标、原则、政策、标准、建议和实施措施的设定都存在一定的宏观性和概括性,难以体现地方的实际特点。最后就如何改进我国规划文本编制进行讨论,规划文本的科学性和微观性取决于规划编制过程中不同部门之间的衔接和合理组织,因此要实现规划文本的明晰表达首先要在规划的组织和协调方面进行改革。     

Can farmers extend their cultivation areas in urban agriculture? A contribution from agronomic analysis of market gardening systems around Mahajanga (Madagascar)

The rapid urbanization in developing countries implies an increasing pressure on urban agriculture for production. As most perishable food products come from this agriculture in close proximity to population concentrations, we analysed from an agronomic point of view how market-garden farmers can meet this increasing urban demand. This work took place in the case of Mahajanga, a secondary city with high increasing demographic rate on the Northwest coast of Madagascar. Based on preliminary surveys to characterize the farming systems (on a sample of 91 farms), 11 market-garden farmers chosen in the three main agricultural zones of the urban area were surveyed during two years. Surveys aimed at understanding their decision rules in crop choices, crop allocation to land and resource management, and to estimate their room for manoeuvre to increase their leafy vegetable areas under cultivation. The wholesalers and retailers who buy the farmers’ produce were also surveyed. A previous model of decision rules regarding crop location on farm territory was used to analyse the on-farm surveys and cartographic methods (GIS and on-farm manual representations) were used to quantify the land use. We highlight the following major points. (1) The leafy vegetable production in the surveyed farms already intensively uses land: farmers have complex decision rules largely depending on the water dynamics in the two main environments (lowlands and lakesides) where leafy vegetables are cultivated during the dry season. (2) The scarcity of farmers’ resources (labour money and water) leads to very little internal room for manoeuvre to increase the leafy vegetable production in the farms. (3) At territorial level however, some land reserve exist in one of the lowlands, but not on lakesides. The water availability for agriculture must be better informed through specialized hydrologic studies, as one of the main constraints nowadays to extend the agricultural area. An extrapolation to other cases of urban agriculture is then discussed as well as the role of agronomy to help urban planners to consider the place of agriculture in the urban development.     

进城农民工需要满足的行为选择模型

进城农民工能否实现城市化,取决于其行为选择,而这又与进城农民工的需要满足直接相关.本研究以量表测试进城农民工需要状况,再通过因素分析分别从量表中提取因子,用相关分析法找出相关因子,最后用多元回归分析的逐步进入法算出因子间的相关系数和回归系数,根据回归方程建立了模型.     

市场竞争加强背景下农业保险公司的双重经营困境

我国农业保险市场在规模快速发展的同时,竞争也不断加强.由于农业保险的政策属性和特殊业务性质,市场竞争加强可能会影响保险公司的运行成本及赔付支出,从而对其产生经营压力.本文采用全国31 个省、直辖市、自治区2010～2018 年的面板数据,利用随机效应模型检验了市场竞争等因素对农业保险公司经营成本的影响.研究发现:市场竞...     

从经济区域比较看东北经济的振兴

东北经济的振兴恰逢中国的工业化进入重化工业发展的新阶段,东北经济的最大优势就是重化工业的物质基础和人力资本基础,重化工业化对东北经济的振兴是千载难逢,而且一旦失去就不会再来的重大机遇。从区域经济一体化的角度,审视东北经济的比较优势,并进行相应的产业整合,就成为东北经济振兴的必由之路。     

城市景观形象与旅游功能的整合——以芜湖市为例

对芜湖城市景观形象的现状特征进行了分析,并以城市中主要的景观如公园、广场、步行街、长江大桥等为例,探讨该市景观形象方面的利弊,分析了景观形象应如何与旅游功能相互整合,试图为芜湖及各城市的景观形象建设提供参考.     

桑叶配方颗粒物质基准研究

桑叶配方颗粒迄今尚没有统一的质量标准。为提升桑叶配方颗粒的内在质量,对其物质基准评价方法进行了研究。选取具有代表性产地的15批桑叶制备物质基准,采用高效液相色谱法,以芦丁、异槲皮苷、紫云英苷作为评价指标,确定桑叶物质基准的出膏率范围、标志性成分含量及转移率范围,采用超高效液相色谱法,建立物质基准UPLC特征图谱,并对其主要成分进行指认。结果表明:15批物质基准中,芦丁转移率为19.94%～34.05%,异槲皮苷转移率为11.67%～43.58%,紫云英苷转移率为10.73%～43.05%;物质基准特征图谱中,标定了14个共有峰,指认出7个色谱峰,分别为新绿原酸、绿原酸、咖啡酸、芦丁、异槲皮苷、槲皮素-3-O-(6″-O-丙二酰基)-β-D-葡萄糖苷、紫云英苷。所建立的基准评价方法为桑叶配方颗粒质量标准的制定及其后续大规模生产提供了数据基础。