The future of health futures

Health futures represents the application of various futures tools to the arenas of health and health care. This special issue of Futures reflects the significant growth of health futures. Health and health-care systems can be far better by the early 21st century, or they could be worse. Health futures enables individuals, organizations and communities to understand better the threats and opportunities facing their health, both of which are profound. The International Health Futures Network is an indicator of the growth of this subfield of futures. The future of health futures will be shaped by the ability of futures techniques and those who use them to provide value to organizations and individuals. Better networking among health futurists, expert systems, and the ability to measure and communicate quality will be essential.     

Capturing social network effects in technology adoption: the spatial diffusion of hybrid rice in Bangladesh

In this paper, we demonstrate a method for measuring the effect of spatial interactions on the use of hybrid rice using a unique, nationally representative data set from Bangladesh. In order to circumvent the ‘reflection problem’, we consider an identification and estimation strategy employing a generalised spatial two‐stage least squares procedure with near‐ideal instruments to effectively identify causal influences. Results indicate that neighbour effects are a significant determinant of hybrid rice use. Further, using two specifications of spatial network systems, one based on same‐village membership (irrespective of distance) and the other based on geographical distance (irrespective of village boundary), we demonstrate that a network including nearby hybrid rice adopters is more influential than a network of more distant hybrid rice adopters, and merely having a network with a large number of adopters may be relatively meaningless if they are far away. Furthermore, we show that these network effects are much more important to hybrid cultivation than interactions with agricultural extension officers.