International monetary policy surprise spillovers

This is the first paper to examine international monetary surprise spillovers and to estimate the response of security prices to monetary and nonmonetary surprises. Monetary surprises have a slope effect on the domestic yield curve—short maturity yields adjust much more than longer maturity yields. These results are similar to other studies. The following results are new. US monetary surprises spill over and affect Australian yields and equity returns. Australian monetary surprises do not spill over to the US. Nonmonetary surprises are much more important than monetary policy surprises in explaining longer maturity yield changes and equity returns.     

Linking Linear/Nonlinear Thinking Style Balance and Managerial Ethical Decision-Making

This study presents the results of an empirical analysis of the relationship between managerial thinking style and ethical decision-making. Data from 200 managers across multiple organizations and industries demonstrated that managers predominantly adopt a utilitarian perspective when forming ethical intent across a series of business ethics vignettes. Consistent with expectations, managers utilizing a balanced linear/nonlinear thinking style demonstrated a greater overall willingness to provide ethical decisions across ethics vignettes compared to managers with a predominantly linear thinking style. However, results comparing the ethical decision-making of balanced thinking managers and nonlinear thinking managers were generally inconsistent across the ethics vignettes. Unexpectedly, managers utilizing a balanced linear/nonlinear thinking style were least likely to adopt an act utilitarian rationale for ethical decision-making across the vignettes, suggesting that balanced thinkers may be more likely to produce ethical decisions by considering a wider range of alternatives and ruling out those that are justified solely on the basis of their outcomes. Implications are discussed for future research and practice related to management education and development, and ethical decision-making theory. Kevin S. Groves is an Assistant Professor of Management and Director of the PepsiCo Leadership Center at California State University, Los Angles. His research interests include managerial thinking styles, ethical decision-making, executive leadership development and succession planning systems, charismatic leadership, and leader emotional intelligence. He teaches undergraduate, MBA, and doctoral-level classes across a range of management and leadership subjects, including management competency development, organizational behavior, business ethics, and organization development and change. Dr. Groves’ recent research has been published in such journals as the Journal of Management, Human Resource Development Quarterly, Journal of Management Development, Leadership and Organization Development Journal, Journal of Management Education, and the Academy of Management Learning & Education. He received a Ph.D. in Organizational Behaviour from Claremont Graduate University. Charles Vance teaches in the area of human resource management at Loyola Marymount University. He recently completed Senior Specialist and regular Fulbright appointments in Austria and China respectively. He is the author with Yongsun Paik of the new text, Managing a Global Workforce, (M.E. Sharpe, 2006). His nonlinear penchant is expressed quarterly in cartoons and other attempts at humor in the ending “Out of Whack” section of the Journal of Management Inquiry. Dr. Yongsun Paik is a professor of international business and management in the College of Business Administration, Loyola Marmount University. He holds a Ph. D. degree in International Business from University Washington. His primary research interests focus on international human resource management, global strategic alliances, and Asia Pacific business studies. He has recently published articles in such journals as Journal of World Business, Management International Review, Journal of International Managemtn, Business Horizons, International Journal of Human Resource Management, Journal of Management Inquiry, Human Resource Management Journal, among others.     

U.S. trade remedy law and agriculture: trade diversion and investigation effects

Abstract .  We study U.S. agricultural antidumping and countervailing duty cases from 1980 to 2005, and gauge the effectiveness of trade remedy law as a form of protection. The purpose is to measure the resulting investigation and trade diversion effects. Previous research on trade in manufactured products has shown that the domestic protection offered by AD and CV duties is largely offset by trade diversion. In contrast, we find that for agriculture, trade diversion is relatively unimportant. So AD and CVD cases are very effective forms of protection for U.S. agriculture.     

DO INSTITUTIONS MITIGATE THE RISK OF NATURAL RESOURCE CONFLICTS?

The resource curse, as manifested by an increased likelihood of conflict over rents, can be mitigated by institutions. Lei and Michaels find that discoveries of “giant” oil fields increase the likelihood of violent conflict, but they find no evidence that democratic institutions mitigate this risk. We test whether institutions mitigate the resource curse by reducing the risk of natural resource conflicts. Our results indicate that high quality economic institutions reduce the likelihood of territorial (separatist) conflicts following natural resource rent windfalls. Highly autocratic and highly democratic institutions also reduce the likelihood of territorial conflict after natural resource rent windfalls. (JEL Q34, O13, P48, D74)     

Models of mortality rates – analysing the residuals

The area of mortality modelling has received significant attention over the last 25 years owing to the need to quantify and forecast improving mortality rates. This need is driven primarily by the concern of governments, insurance and actuarial professionals and individuals to be able to fund their old age. In particular, to quantify the costs of increasing longevity we need suitable model of mortality rates that capture the dynamics of the data and forecast them with sufficient accuracy to make them useful. In this article, we test several of the leading time series models by considering the fitting quality and in particular, testing the residuals of those models for normality properties. In a wide ranging study considering 30 countries we find that almost exclusively the residuals do not demonstrate normality. Further, in Hurst tests of the residuals we find evidence that structure remains that is not captured by the models.     

Sickness, absenteeism, presenteeism, and sick pay

The annual cost of absenteeism from the workplace in the UKhas been estimated to be over 1% of GDP. The traditional approachto a discussion of absence has been for the firm to passivelyaccept both wages and sick pay and allow workers to choose theirabsence behaviour. Most empirical research has been based onthis approach. However, if absence is costly why should firmspay extra-statutory sick pay? One reason may be the phenomenaof presenteeism (ill workers attending work). This may adverselyaffect productivity. This paper shows that allowing for presenteeismhas important implications for both the design of optimal wage-sickpay contracts and for the interpretation of empirical studies.Specifically, we show that firms will offer a level of sickpay greater than the statutory minimum.     

Explaining the Decline in UK Agricultural Productivity Growth

This paper reports the results of a study of total factor productivity (TFP) growth in UK agriculture, from 1953‐2000. It shows that prior to 1984 TFP grew at 1.68% per annum and after that date at only 0.26%. International comparisons show that the UK has fallen far behind the leading EU countries. Yield growth declined even more and only labour productivity continues to grow rapidly. In part, the result is due to better data that incorporates more quality adjustment, but the real decline can be explained mainly by cuts in R&D, less patents, less growth in farm size and the demise of public extension. There are other negative factors, which have not been quantified, including asset fixity, convergence and ozone pollution, and a background argument that recent growth rates cannot be sustained.