The Effect of Sequential Information Arrival on Asset Prices: An Experimental Study

A complete understanding of security markets requires a simultaneous explanation of price behavior, trading volume, portfolio composition (ie., asset allocation), and bid-ask spreads. In this paper, these variables are observed in a controlled setting—a computerized double auction market, similar to NASDAQ. Our laboratory allows experimental control of information arrival—whether simultaneously or sequentially received, and whether homogeneous or heterogeneous. We compare the price, volume, and share allocations of three market equilibrium models: telepathic rational expectations, which assumes that traders can read each others minds (strong-form market efficiency); ordinary rational expectations, which assumes traders can use (some) market price information, (a type of semi-strong form efficiency); and private information, where traders use no market information. We conclude 1) that stronger-form market models predict equilibrium prices better than weaker-form models, 2) that there were fewer misallocation forecasts in simultaneous information arrival (SIM) environments, 3) that trading volume was significantly higher in SIM environments, 4) and that bid-ask spreads widen significantly when traders are exposed to price uncertainty resulting from information heterogeneity.     

Capital values in use versus replacement costs: Theory and Canadian evidence*

Abstract. This paper explores relationships between capital values in use (market values, which include “goodwill”, or abnormal growth opportunities) and capital replacement costs for the 52 publicly traded Canadian firms that disclosed such data in 1983 and 1984. Tobin's Q is one at the margin and regresses toward one over time, as predicted by economic theory, but differs across industries: Q-ratios of manufacturers average one; those of resource firms exceed one, probably reflecting Ricardian rents; those of utilities are less than one, possibly due to regulatory constraints. Q-ratios based on replacement cost data cannot be accurately estimated from historic cost accounting data. Replacement cost data may contain random measurement error but evidently not bias. Thus the data may be especially useful for assessing the performance of portfolios of firms, in which random error will be diversified away. Cross sectional regression analyses indicate that Canadian accounting procedures overstate shareholders' equity and understate bondholders' equity in replacement costs. Thus some financial ratios based on replacement cost data (e.g., leverage) are biased. Evidence on how deferred taxes are reflected in security prices is ambiguous. Implications of the findings for accounting standard setters, researchers and users of financial statements are discussed. Résumé. L'auteur explore les relations entre les valeurs en capital utilisées (les valeurs marchandes comprenant l'«achalandage» ou les possibilités de croissance inusitées) et les coûts de remplacement de capital pour les 52 entreprises canadiennes inscrites à la bourse qui ont livré ce genre de données en 1983 et 1984. L'indice Q de Tobin est de un à la marge et régresse vers un dans le temps, comme le prévoit la théorie économique, mais il diffère selon les secteurs: les indices Q des entreprises manufacturières sont de un en moyenne; ceux des entreprises d'extraction de ressources excèdent un, ce qui reflète probablement les rentes ricardiennes; et ceux des services pubics sont inférieurs à un, possiblement en raison des contraintes de la réglementation. Les indices Q basés sur les données relatives au coût de remplacement ne peuvent être estimés avec exactitude à partir des données comptables relatives aux coûts d'origine. Les données relatives au coût de remplacement peuvent contenir une erreur de mesure aléatoire mais, bien sûr, aucun biais. Ces données peuvent donc être particulièrement utiles dans l'évaluation du rendement des portefeuilles des sociétés, dans laquelle l'erreur aléatoire sera diluée. Les analyses de régression intersectorielles révèlent que les procédés comptables canadiens surestiment l'avoir des actionnaires et sous-estiment l'avoir des détenteurs d'obligations en coûts de remplacement. Par conséquent, certains ratios financiers basés sur les données relatives au coût de remplacement (l'effet de levier financier par exemple) sont biaisés. La façon dont les impôts reportés sont reflétés dans le prix des titres est ambiguë. L'auteur traite des conséquences des résultats de cette étude pour les resposables de l'établissement des normes comptables, les chercheurs et les utilisateurs des états financiers.     

Voluntary Income-Increasing Accounting Changes*

Abstract. This article presents an explanation of the reasons that managers might elect to change accounting methods. Facing adversity with a nontrivial probability of technical default on the debt covenants, the manager is motivated to effect an income-increasing accounting change to circumvent a technical default. Under rational expectations, if investors do not have any prior information about the firm's adversity, the market reaction on an accounting change announcement is predicted to be negative. We postulate that the market impact on the date of change announcement is negatively correlated with the amount of information the investors may have. A sample of 77 firms was selected to test the economic arguments. Investors' reaction to the accounting change was tested by abnormal returns on dates of announcement. Cross-sectional tests associate the investors' reaction with their prior information about the financial status of the sample firms. On the date of the change announcement, the sample firms did not experience a statistically significant negative market reaction. However, in a cross-sectional analysis, the market impact parameter was found to be significantly correlated in a negative manner with the prior information proxy variable.     

Corporate Financial Policy,Information, and Market Expectations: An Empirical Investigation of Dividends

This paper documents a relationship between announcements of unexpected changes in financial policy and unexpected changes in performance of the firm. Using a new methodology that combines analysis of stock price movements and earnings forecast data, the authors provide evidence that analysts revise their earnings forecasts following the announcement of an unexpected dividend change by an amount positively related to the size of the unexpected dividend change. They also provide evidence that these revisions are positively related to the change in equity value surrounding the announcement. Further, they find that these revisions are consistent with rationality. Their results therefore provide direct evidence consistent with the hypothesis that unexpected dividend changes signal information about firm performance to market participants.     

Asymmetries in Price‐Setting Behavior: New Microeconometric Evidence from Switzerland

In this paper, we follow the recent empirical literature that has specified reduced‐form models for price setting that are closely tied to (S, s) ‐pricing rules. Our contribution to the literature is twofold. First, we propose an estimator that relaxes distributional assumptions on the unobserved heterogeneity. Second, we use the estimator to examine the prevalence of positive price changes in a low‐inflation environment. Our model estimates suggest that, if inflation falls from 0.9% to zero, the share of positive price changes in all price changes falls from 63.6% to 56.2%.     

Correlated Trading and Returns

A German broker's clients place similar speculative trades and therefore tend to be on the same side of the market in a given stock during a given day, week, month, and quarter. Aggregate liquidity effects, short sale constraints, the systematic execution of limit orders (coordinated through price movements) or the correlated trading of other investors who pick off retail limit orders do not fully explain why retail investors trade similarly. Correlated market orders lead returns, presumably due to persistent speculative price pressure. Correlated limit orders also predict subsequent returns, consistent with executed limit orders being compensated for accommodating liquidity demands.     

Altering Investment Decisions to Manage Financial Reporting Outcomes: Asset‐Backed Commercial Paper Conduits and FIN 46

We evaluate the manner in which sponsors of highly leveraged asset‐backed commercial paper (ABCP) conduits responded to Financial Accounting Standards Board Interpretation No. 46 (FIN 46), Consolidation of Variable Interest Entities an Interpretation of ARB No. 51, and its Canadian counterpart Accounting Standards Board of Accounting Guideline 15 (AcG‐15), Consolidation of Variable Interest Entities. By matching commercial paper investors with corporations seeking liquidity, ABCP sponsors facilitate a significant amount of short‐term, securitized financing in the United States. FIN 46 and AcG‐15 require sponsors to consolidate their ABCP conduits with their financial statements. We demonstrate that the volume of ABCP began to decline when FIN 46 was first proposed, and that this decline is primarily attributable to a reduction in North American banks' sponsorship of ABCP. We also demonstrate that North American banks entered into costly restructuring arrangements to avoid having to consolidate their conduits per the new accounting standards. Our results suggest that, in certain settings, accounting standards appear to have real effects on investment activity and product‐market competition.     

How Much Are Car Purchases Driven by Home Equity Withdrawal?

Previous research indicates that changes in housing wealth affect consumer spending on cars. We find that home equity extraction plays only a small role in this relationship. Consumers rarely use funds from equity extraction to purchase a car directly, even during the mid‐2000s’ housing boom; this finding holds across three nationally representative household surveys. We find in credit bureau data that equity extraction does lead to a statistically significant increase in auto loan originations, consistent with equity extraction easing borrowing constraints in the auto loan market. This channel, though, accounts for only a tiny share of overall car purchases.