Fiscal Decentralization and Poverty Alleviation in a Transitional Economy: The Case of Viet Nam

Intergovernmental fiscal arrangements may play an important role in ameliorating poverty in many countries. Successful poverty alleviation generally requires both ‘capacity improving’ and ‘safety net’ policies, and both types of policies may, to some extent, be implemented through, or affected by, intergovernmental transfers. From this perspective, we analyse the efficacy of intergovernmental fiscal arrangements in poverty alleviation in a transitional economy, Viet Nam. We argue that both general and specific transfers are needed for this purpose: the former to enable all provinces to provide a given basket of public services at a given tax-price by offsetting their revenue and cost disabilities and the latter to ensure that minimum levels of those public services provided by lower levels of government are targeted to the poor throughout the country.     

Does GDP Distort Mexico's Economic Performance?

Between 1961 and 1980, Mexico's gross domestic product (GDP) per capita grew nearly 3.50% annually. During the 1980s, however, it shrank about 0.50% per year. GDP figures suggest that there was sustained economic growth for the 1960s and 1970s, changing suddenly to contraction in the 1980s. This impression may be misleading. GDP does not account for housework or informal production outside households. Further, GDP also may be distorted by transactional activities, which are expenditures to support transactions, not actual output consumed. This study recalculates output for Mexico for the 1961-1990 sample period, controlling for transactional activities and nonmarket production. We find that GDP misstates Mexico's “actual” economic growth. In the 1960s, the economy expanded more quickly than GDP suggests. But in the 1970s, growth was less than half that of the 1960s. The economy indeed slumped in the 1980s, but not as terribly as the official figures indicate. Mexico's economy did not collapse suddenly in the early 1980s; actual economic growth had slowed dramatically during the 1970s.     

社会网络与民工工资：来自中国的证据

 本文基于来自中国22个省的农户调查数据研究了利用的不同社会网络对于不同的民工在城市劳动力市场上的工资水平的影响,结果发现：并不是利用所有的社会网络都能够提高所有民工的工资水平。首先,只有利用亲友关系找到的工作才能够得到更高的工资;其次,即使亲友关系也不能提高利用它找到工作的所有民工的工资水平,而只能显著提高女性和已婚民工的工资水平。所以,在研究中忽略社会网络和民工的差异性会导致错误的研究结论。本文有助于帮助理解中国的劳动力流动及社会网络在劳动力市场中的作用。     

Russian light industry on the threshold of the world trade organization

This paper considers the modern situation in the domestic light industry, production of separate types of products, use of basic assets, employment and labor compensation, share in the total output of processing industries, raw materials base, pressure of imports on the internal market, and the properties of consumption behavior in separate income groups. The prospects for the innovative technical and technological development of the industry and problems arising owing to joining the World Trade Organization are discussed.     

Sources of Real Exchange Rate Volatility in Africa: The Case of ECOWAS*

Abstract: This study examines the impact of (real) demand shocks, (aggregate) supply shocks, and monetary shocks on real exchange rates in 13 West African countries. We observe that the real demand shocks explain most of the fluctuations in real exchange rates in all these countries. Accordingly, policymakers should adopt a careful demand management strategy by controlling government expenditure and taxes.     

Federal Reserve Communications and Emerging Equity Markets

Work on the impact of U.S. monetary policy on emerging financial markets mostly focuses on official target rate announcements; empirical evidence using data on informal communication channels, such as speeches, is scant. Employing a unique data set covering formal and informal communication channels in a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model framework, we provide comprehensive evidence on the effects of U.S. monetary policy on 17 emerging equity market returns over the period 1998–2009. We find, first, that both monetary policy actions and communications have a significant impact on market returns. Second, target rate change surprises are an important driver of emerging market returns. However, informal communications—particularly when taking into account their higher frequency—have a larger (cumulative) influence on returns than do target rate surprises. Third, during the recent financial crisis, central bank communication played an even more pronounced role. Finally, American emerging markets react more to communications than do non‐American markets.     

Multi-product firms,product mix changes and upgrading: Evidence from China's state-owned forest areas

Product selection matters for a firm's productivity and long-run growth. Recent theoretical and empirical studies indicate that an important margin of adjustment to policy reforms is the reallocation of output within firms through changes in product mix decisions. This paper examines the frequency, pervasiveness and determinants of product-switching and upgrading activities in firms located in China's state-owned forest areas during a period of gradual institutional and managerial reforms (2004–2008). We find that changes to the product mix are pervasive and characterized by adding or churning products rather than only shedding products. Moreover, changes in firms’ product mix have made a significant contribution to the aggregate output growth during our sample period. We also find that firms with different characteristics, human capital and market conditions differ in their propensity to diversify and upgrade product mix.     

The post-crisis recovery and its risks and opportunities

This article considers the prospects for the development of the Russian economy in the post-crisis period. Key factors are analyzed that may affect the rate of the economic recovery. Opportunities are studied for changing the qualitative characteristics of economic development. Key objectives are formulated for the mid-term development of the Russian economy.