Monetary instruments and policy rules in a rational expectations environment

This paper explores the implications of rational expectations and the aggregate supply theory advanced by Lucas (1973) and Barro (1976) for analysis of optimal monetary policy under uncertainty along the lines of Poole (1970), returning to a topic initially treated by Sargent and Wallace (1975). Not surprisingly, these two ‘classical’ concepts alter both the menu of feasible policy choice and the desirability of certain policy actions. In our setup, unlike that of Sargent and Wallace (1975), the systematic component of monetary policy is a relevant determinant of the magnitude of ‘business fluctuations’ that arise from shocks to the system. Central bank behavior — both the selection of monetary instruments and the framing of overall policy response to economic conditions — can work to diminish or increase the magnitude of business fluctuations. However, the ‘activist’ policies stressed by the present discussion bear little (if any) relationship to the policy options rationalized by the conventional analysis of monetary policy under uncertainty. In particular, in contrast to Poole's analysis, money supply responses to the nominal interest rate are not important determinants of real economic activity. Rather, the central bank should focus on policies that make movements in the general price level readily identifiable by economic agents.     

Is Latin America Catching Up? A Time‐Series Approach

Most Latin American economies ended the twentieth century further behind the United States (in terms of productivity) than they had been in 1950. We investigate whether this reflects the effect of occasional economic setbacks or a systematic tendency to fall behind the United States. This is done using a time‐series approach that allows for up to two structural breaks in a series. We find evidence that relative productivity is a (broken) trend‐stationary process for most of the 18 countries considered but that only one, Chile, shows evidence of catching up with the United States at the century’s close.     

The Impact of Racial Discrimination on the Early Career Outcomes of Young Men

The NLSY dataset is utilized to measure the extent of employer wage discrimination between white and black males during their first 5 years of post-school employment. We look at the respondent’s first job and the jobs 1 and 5 years after school completion. Oaxaca wage decompositions are employed to gauge the effect of discrimination. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find that the discrimination component of the wage gap falls over time. For the first job out of school the unexplained wage gap between blacks and whites is 35%. By year 5, the unexplained component falls to about 13%. Thus, while discrimination continues to play a role in explaining the white–black wage gap over time, its impact decreases as time in the labor market increases.

To Gamble or Not? Perceptions of Macau Among Mainland Chinese and Hong Kong Visitors

Macau's casino sector has been expanding rapidly, particularly targeting mainland Chinese gamblers. The novelty and under‐researched nature of this market is a challenge for Macau's casino and destination marketers. This study explores the characteristics of the mainland market and compares this with the second placed and more mature Hong Kong market. The profiling of visitors from Macau's main source markets including demographic, region of origin, trip behaviour and motivation characteristics provides insights into the future success of the destination. Adaption theory is used to explain the implications of differences between Gambling and Non‐Gambling visitors from the two source markets. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Family Business Restructuring: A Review and Research Agenda

Although business restructuring occurs frequently and it is important for the prosperity of family firms across generations, research on family firms has largely evolved separately from research on business restructuring. This is a missed opportunity, since the two domains are complementary, and understanding the context, process, content, and outcome dimensions is relevant to both research streams. We address this by examining the intersection between research on business restructuring and family firms to improve our knowledge of each area and inform future research. To achieve this goal, we review and organize research across different dimensions to create an integrative framework. Building on current research, we focus on 88 studies at the intersection of family firm and business restructuring research to develop a model that identifies research needs and suggests directions for future research.     

The lack of an expected relationship between travel cost and contingent value estimates of forest recreation value

Abstract

Using data obtained from visitors to forest campgrounds, travel cost models were developed. Bid functions and willingness‐to‐pay estimates of recreation value were derived from contingent value questions posed to campers. The willingness‐to‐pay responses were based on both photographic representations of forest scenes and on actual forest conditions at each campground. The photo‐based willingness‐to‐pay estimates were significantly correlated with scenic beauty rating estimates made for photo‐based scenes, but there was little correlation between these values and willingness‐to‐pay estimates for actual forest conditions, or estimates from travel cost models. Further, no correlation was found between travel cost estimates and contingent value estimates of the value of forest conditions on‐site. The findings raise questions about the validity and comparability of willingness‐to‐pay measures that are applied to particular types of forest recreation situations.     

Nostalgia film tourism and its potential for destination development

Cinematic nostalgia can influence visitors in choosing destinations where particular films have been made or shot. Focusing on the case of Hong Kong this study investigated the incidence of nostalgia amongst Taiwanese filmgoers, and whether this generates feelings of familiarity that induce subsequent travel intentions. As an input to potentially wide-ranging destination experiences, it is found that nostalgia film tourism provides tourists with psychological benefits and constitutes a destination experience that is responsive to the ambient surroundings. The researchers identified five film nostalgia domains, namely: memories of backdrops, stories and movie stars, mimicking, envy, and culture and history. Memories of backdrops and mimicking were found to be the best predictors of perceived familiarity with the films’ origin territory and of future travel intentions. Given the continuing preference for “blockbusters” amongst contemporary filmgoers and the faddishness of audience preferences, there is some risk that fading memories may cause film destinations to lose their appeal. Film nostalgia nevertheless provides a potential medium to maintain the profile of destinations which have served as film locations.     

Institutions,research and development: tourism and the Asian financial crisis

This report examines the repercussions of the Asian financial crisis on regional institutions and on tourism research and development. It is concluded that the importance of regional institutions for the provision of quality information, research and development will continue to grow. In the short term the crisis has lessened the commitment of key intraregional and national institutions to tourism research and development activity, although some useful collaboration between countries within the region has been evident. Asia should re‐emerge as the world's fastest growing tourism region, provided that the countries most affected by the Asian financial crisis do not impose restrictions on tourist movements or turn away from their long‐term commitment to strategies underpinned by research and development. The move by Pacific Asia Travel Association from San Francisco to Bangkok is identified as an important symbol of the role that regional institutions will continue to play in tourism research and development. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.