高铁时代的小城市发展——基于人口空心化的研究

高铁快速发展带来整体经济的突飞猛进,也带来小城发展变化。文章通过选取2010至2018年881个小城市的面板数据,研究高铁建设对小城发展的影响。研究发现:高铁开通可能引致部分小城人口的外流,或许加剧了部分小城人口的空心化程度。作用机制甄别结果表明,高铁通过引致消费需求外流、滞后产业结构升级和助推房价攀升途径予以实现,其中滞后产业结构升级是更为重要的传导途径。异质性分析结果表明,对不同规模的小城市而言,高铁开通可能造成人口流失的程度具有明显差异性,城区人口规模在0-20万的小城市,人口流失程度要明显低于城区人口规模在20-50万的小城市。进一步研究发现,高铁建设并未形成开通高铁小城和未通高铁小城间的经济增长差距;同时,对于开通高铁小城间的内部经济增长差距,也未得到有效验证。总之,小城应充分考虑自身区位劣势、资源禀赋和产业布局等条件,在符合高质量发展的要求下发展高铁经济。     

泡沫前后的政府政策选择

在经济全球化的背景下,金融资本的国际化流动不断加强,促成了国际金融市场的联动性和互相影响程度不断加强.而金融市场的迅速发展和资产证券化程度的提高,使得金融对于经济的渗透程度和影响程度加大.伴随着经济周期的扩张和收缩,相应资产价格的泡沫的形成和破灭的过程也对经济产生巨大的影响,政府在这样的不同周期阶段的政策选择对于平滑经济和金融市场风险显得十分重要.文章作者试图探讨政府在泡沫形成期和泡沫破灭期的理性政策选择.     

基于影像分类原理的田坎系数获取研究

利用黄石市阳新县分辨率为2.5 m的SPOT-5影像,选取了6个典型耕地图斑,采用基于像元和面向对象两种分类模式对其进行分类并计算田坎系数,将计算结果与实地测算的田坎系数进行对比分析.研究表明:基于影像分类原理获取田坎系数与实地测算的田坎系数有较高的符合度;由于面向对象的分类原理考虑了较多的地物信息,获取的田坎系数符合度较高.     

塔里木油田哈得区块标准井及标准井标准工艺流程的构建

为缩短钻井周期、节约钻井成本,塔北项目部率先提出了以标准井及标准工艺流程为经度,以标准化设计、标准化安全管理、标准化工期及费用、标准化质量控制及考核机制为纬度的"五标"管理理念,而标准井及标准工艺流程为构建"五标"管理理念的关键。根据对哈得区块已完钻的直井、水平井、侧钻井、定向井的统计分析,并结合实际生产开发情况,确定了以直井和水平井作为哈得区块标准井的井型;根据标准井产层的各项地层参数,确定了相应标准井的钻头尺寸组合、钻进深度、套管规格、套管下深、泥浆体系、测井等参数,从而构建了哈得区块直井和水平井2种井型的标准井;同时依据各标准井构建了相应标准井的标准工艺流程。通过塔北项目部的生产实践表明,标准井及标准井的标准工艺流程的构建大大有助于提高油田的经济效益和管理效率。     

Determining the integrated volatility via limit order books with multiple records

The integrated volatility plays an important role in risk management and portfolio selection, the estimation methods regarding the quantity have been widely investigated, either under low-frequency data or high-frequency data, or a combination of both. In this paper, we propose a measure for the integrated volatility via limit order book data with possible presence of multiple records. The estimator is valid under mild conditions and it is easily implemented. The finite sample performance of the proposed estimator has been verified by simulation studies and we apply the method to some real high-frequency data-sets as well.     

The effect of heterogeneous beliefs on mergers and acquisitions

This article investigates the effect of heterogeneous beliefs on firms’ mergers and acquisitions (M&A) decisions. Using data of China’s financial market, which is featured with great heterogeneity of belief, we find that heterogeneous beliefs are positively associated with the occurrence of M&A transactions, and firms with greater heterogeneous beliefs are more likely to pay the transactions with stock. Moreover, we show that government intervention, measured by state ownership, weakens the effect of heterogeneous beliefs on firms’ M&A decisions.     

Establishing statistical foundations of a chronology for the great divergence: a survey and critique of the primary sources for the construction of relative wage levels for Ming–Qing China

This article is a survey and critique of recent endeavours to establish statistical foundations for a chronology for the great divergence based upon trends and levels in relative wages. Our reading of the bibliography in Chinese labour history, together with a preliminary investigation into other primary sources, suggests that the Kuznetsian paradigm for empirical economics may not be viable for the construction of analytical narratives for the Chinese and other premodern imperial economies in South and West Asia. Nevertheless, two datasets currently in print will continue to be quoted to lend support to numerically grounded speculations for levels and trends in real wages and welfare for the families of wage‐dependent urban workers in China over the eighteenth century. Statistical evidence for the Ming and Qing dynasties calibrated for the purposes of comparing real wage levels for wage‐dependent labour between China and western Europe can, however, be placed on a spectrum for accuracy and inferential analysis that runs from ‘unfounded guess work’ to ‘plausible conjectures’. The unwelcome contention of this article is that the data published and potentially available for China (and probably for India and the Ottoman Empire) stand close to the unfounded guess work end of that spectrum. Meanwhile, and as a speculative conclusion, we offer a conjecture that the ‘real wages’ for Qing China's tiny proletariat, whose income included high proportions of wages in kind, have remained as elusive as they were when the real wage debate began a decade ago.     

The influence of risk preferences,knowledge, land consolidation,and landscape diversification on pesticide use

Researchers have spent substantial effort to identify factors influencing pesticide use intensity. However, few studies have compared the relative importance of these factors. This study examines four categories of factors that potentially influence farmers’ pesticide use decisions by evaluating incentivized experiment data, farm survey data, and remote sensing data in China. Our results suggest that land diversification has the largest effect on farmers’ pesticide use. Compared with the most rice-intensive landscape type, less rice-intensive systems cause farmers to spray less on middle rice. Heavy pesticide use intensity is associated with land fragmentation as small-scale farms still dominate crop production. Farmers’ integrated pest management knowledge has significant effects on pesticide use. We also find that loss and ambiguity preferences, rather than risk preferences, are more likely to affect pesticide use intensity.     

中国酒店餐饮中的食品营养问题分析

随着人们消费观念的提升和生活节奏的加快,在餐馆酒店就餐机会越来越多。酒店就餐已成为中国人的一种生活方式。目前,我国酒店餐饮业蓬勃发展,但也存在着诸多问题,如片面追求食物色香味,忽视与人健康息息相关的营养问题,这些问题导致我国酒店餐饮业发展不均衡,长期以往,对居民身体健康将产生不利影响,因此解决酒店食品营养问题成为摆在酒店行业的重要工作。本文从酒店餐饮中食品营养现状出发,分析问题存在的原因,进而提出解决问题的方法,为我国酒店餐饮业的发展提供新的思路和发展方向。