How forensic scientists learn to investigate cases in practice

The formation of organisational tacit knowledge has been studied in the most part using only qualitative explanations such as case studies including those on the workings of communities of practice. From this perspective, tacit knowledge is submersed and consequently it is difficult to quantify. In our community of communities of practice case study we use quantitative social network analysis techniques to explore the process of tacit knowledge exchange among expert knowledge workers – forensic scientists. Conceptually, we search for more structured relational mechanisms that shape tacit knowledge flows occurring between participant actors in communities of practice, in their day-to-day knowledge intensive environments.     

A reassessment of the Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis of perfect capital mobility: evidence from historical data

This short paper explores the relationship between investment and saving rates in a sample of 13 OECD countries over the period 1885–1992. To this end, I employ panel cointegration tests based on the maximum likelihood approach developed by Johansen (J Economic Dynamics Control 12:231–254, 1988) instead of conventional panel cointegration residual based tests, in order to draw sharper conclusions. Using estimation techniques appropriate for heterogeneous panels I find a low degree of capital mobility for the sub-periods 1921–1992 and 1950–1992. The findings overwhelmingly support the hypothesis of perfect capital mobility in the short run.

Smooth breaks and non-linear mean reversion: Post-Bretton Woods real exchange rates

The recent literature on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) has emphasized the role of two phenomena that may lead to the rejection of the PPP hypothesis: structural breaks and non-linear adjustment induced by transaction costs. These two hypotheses are analyzed separately in the literature. We develop tests for unit roots that account jointly for structural breaks and non-linear adjustment. Structural breaks are modeled by means of a Fourier function that allows for infrequent smooth temporary mean changes and is hence compatible with long-run PPP. Nonlinear adjustment is modeled by means of an ESTAR model. Our tests present good finite sample properties. The tests are applied to a set of 15 OECD countries' RERs and are able to reject the null of a unit root in 14 cases. The breaks are usually associated with the great appreciation and later depreciation of the dollar in the 1980s and the ESTAR adjustment appears to play an important role.     

Nonlinear dynamics and the exports–output growth nexus

The untested assumption of a linear relationship between exports and output growth in previous empirical investigations may lead to invalid inference if the actual relationship is nonlinear. This paper re-examines the relationship between exports and economic growth in five industrialized economies (Canada, Italy, Japan, UK, and the US) with emphasis on the effect of nonlinearities on the causal relationships. Results from linearity tests show that nonlinearities do exist in the dynamic relationship between exports and GDP growth. Nonlinear smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model results suggest that nonlinear Granger causality flows from exports to output growth and vice versa. Predictive accuracy tests further confirm the appropriateness of the nonlinear models over the linear model specification.     

Agritourism networks: empirical evidence from two case studies in Greece

This study investigates the characteristics of informal agritourism-related networks within destinations with the help of social network analysis by measuring macro and meso structural aspects of networks in two tourist destinations in Greece with different geographic characteristics: an island-Lesvos (in North Eastern Aegean) and a continental locality-Plastiras Lake (central part of Greece). The main objective is to illustrate and discuss quantitative and qualitative aspects of these networks with selected actors who are linked (directly or indirectly) with the agritourism sector through personal in-depth and semi-structured interviews. The quantitative aspects include: quantity of links, spatial extent of networks, type of relationship, its “thickness”, the duration of the relationship, issues of seasonality as well as satisfaction of the cooperation. The qualitative aspects include the type of relationship of the actors over the link and who (if anyone) has “control” over this relationship. The main findings indicate that the examined networks are partially affected by the geographic characteristics of the case studies and they are very similar in terms of absolute numbers and network metrics. Although research on networks has been an emerging and promising approach, qualitative characteristics of informal networks seem to be integral for understanding networks and planning tourism policies.     

The Day After Grant-Aid: Business Development Schemes for Small Rural Firms in Lagging Areas of Greece

This paper investigates the need for providing follow up business development instruments to small rural businesses that have benefited from grant aid assistance schemes. A sample of 76 small rural businesses in lagging areas of insular Greece is included in the present survey, and ranks thirteen possible business growth instruments. It is found that business development instruments are ranked according to each firm's economic and human capital characteristics. Furthermore, most firms need the concurrent provision of more than one instrument. Likewise, a mixture of business specific schemes, regulatory interventions and infrastructure projects, better serves their business development needs. Results from the present survey indicate that an integrated business development strategy in lagging areas of Greece should be supported by modern, flexibly tailored combinations of assistance, using complex, multi-instrument sets of support to development efforts.     

Exchange rate predictability and dynamic Bayesian learning

We consider how an investor in the foreign exchange market can exploit predictive information by means of flexible Bayesian inference. Using a variety of vector autoregressive models, the investor is able, each period, to learn about important data features. The developed methodology synthesizes a wide array of established approaches for modeling exchange rate dynamics. In a thorough investigation of monthly exchange rate predictability for 10 countries, we find that using the proposed methodology for dynamic asset allocation achieves substantial economic gains out of sample. In particular, we find evidence for sparsity, fast model switching, and exploitation of the exchange rate cross-section.     

Forecasting with High‐Dimensional Panel VARs

This paper develops methods for estimating and forecasting in Bayesian panel vector autoregressions of large dimensions with time‐varying parameters and stochastic volatility. We exploit a hierarchical prior that takes into account possible pooling restrictions involving both VAR coefficients and the error covariance matrix, and propose a Bayesian dynamic learning procedure that controls for various sources of model uncertainty. We tackle computational concerns by means of a simulation‐free algorithm that relies on analytical approximations to the posterior. We use our methods to forecast inflation rates in the eurozone and show that these forecasts are superior to alternative methods for large vector autoregressions.     

Inflation, Shadow Prices and the EMU: Evidence From Greece

The paper examines whether inflation systematically distorts the informational content of price signals. A shadow cost function is specified, and the deviation of shadow from actual prices is modeled as a function of the level of economy‐wide inflation, as well as other conditioning variables like budget deficits and changes in inflation rate. It is found that inflation is associated with significant allocative costs in most Greek manufacturing sectors. Measures of cost gains resulting from Greece's convergence towards the EMU are provided and the policy implications are explored.