A game theory modeling approach for 3G operators

This paper presents the technoeconomic evaluation of a third generation rollout scenario followed by the identification of the market conditions for two operators in a simple game theory model. The considered scenarios reflect the point of view of both dominant operators and new entrants. Technoeconomic results are presented in terms of net present value (NPV), acting like the pay-off function in the proposed theoretical Game Theory model. The business case presented here was studied by using a tool, developed by European Projects IST-25172 TONIC/ECOSYS, a model developed by the EURESCOM P901 project and the Game Theory Tool named Gambit.     

Estimating diffusion and price elasticity with application to telecommunications

This paper aims to propose a new framework for estimating and forecasting diffusion of high technology products, along with the construction of a price index. Into that context, the “diffusion–price” model is presented, as an innovative concept providing a long term estimation of both price and diffusion elasticity. This corresponds to the bidirectional estimation of the mutual influence of the product’s price over its expected diffusion and vice versa. The discrete parts of the methodology are the use of a diffusion model for the initial estimation of diffusion, the construction of a price index function for estimating the pricing mechanism and, finally, the construction of the “diffusion–price” model for estimating and adjusting the diffusion level and price quantities. The case studies examined, whose solution was based on genetic algorithms, revealed remarkable results which can be used for business strategies development, as the pricing policy is able to make diffusion diverge substantially from the initial estimates. The case studies considered correspond to the ADSL technology diffusion in the wider European area.     

Back to basics: The Comanor–Wilson MES index revisited

The present article attempts to investigate the validity of the Comanor–Wilson Minimum Efficient Size (MES) measure. The basic assumption is that firms that have exhausted scale economies are in non-increasing returns to scale. The same firms are also assumed to have a size greater than MES estimated on sales (total turnover), employment or fixed assets. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is used, on a sample of firms in three Greek manufacturing industries, to classify firms in operation according to increasing or non-increasing returns to scale. On the basis of the results of the DEA input oriented model, the MES measure correctly predicts over 85% of the cases. A probit model is applied to those cases that are not identically predicted by MES concerning returns to scale. Results indicate that technical efficiency, size and age are the factors that compel MES to yield the same prediction as the DEA approach.

The Relevance of the Monetary Model for the Euro / USD Exchange Rate Determination: a Long Run Perspective

This study tries to fill a vacuum in the literature on the relevance of economic fundamentals for the Euro / USD exchange rate determination. We adopt the Monetary Model for the Exchange Rate Determination as our testing vehicle and investigate the relevance of various versions of this model over a long time horizon, spanning the period from the inception of Euro till the present time. We rely on cointegration analysis to conduct our empirical research and in accordance to the relevant literature we fail to accept most of the variants of this model. However, we get encouraging results from an expanded version of the Monetary Model where demand and productivity factors appear in the set of the exchange rate determinants.     

Railway transport liberalization in the European Union: Freight,labor and health toward the year 2020 in Spain

The year 2010 is a key year for European railway transport as it marks the liberalization of the railway sector in a context of economic crisis. The railway sector is a driving force behind the economy of any country. In the case of Spain, in particular, the sector is undergoing a process of liberalization following large public investments that have provided the country with one of the most extensive high-speed railway networks in Europe. Using a methodological approach that seeks a balance between future studies and constructivist studies on the interaction between technology and society, we examine the present and future consequences of railway transport liberalization, in the case-study of Spain, focusing on a key aspect of the process: changes in occupational health and safety conditions in a sector that must ensure full passenger, worker and freight safety. Through a comparison of actual risks, perceived risks and foreseeable risks, we analyze the main shortcomings of the liberalization model that is currently being implemented and strategies for dealing with foreseeable risks in a scenario of change.