The effects of analyst forecasts and earnings trends on perceptions of management forecast credibility

We examine whether analyst forecasts influence investors’ perceptions of the credibility of a good news management earnings forecast. We hypothesize that the effect of analyst forecasts will depend on whether the analyst forecast confirms management’s forecast and the extent to which management’s forecast is consistent with the prior earnings trend. Findings indicate that the positive effect of a confirming analyst forecast is greater when the management forecast is trend inconsistent than when it is trend consistent. The negative effect of a disconfirming analyst forecast does not differ based on management forecast trend consistency.     

National Determinants of Family Firm Development? Family Firms in Britain, Spain, and Italy in the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries

We provide here a complement to recent work on family business,which has demonstrated the need to go beyond the generic definitionof the family firm to place personal capitalism in an appropriateinstitutional, historical, and cultural framework. By focusingon the nineteenth- and twentieth-century experiences in Britain,Spain, and Italy, we challenge the notion that in the nineteenthand twentieth centuries there was anything so simple as a Mediterraneanmodel for family business. Rather, we demonstrate the need toconsider family businesses in national and regional contextsif we are to understand their various capabilities and characteristics.We use similarities and differences in the experiences and responsesof families and firms in the three countries to support thisclaim.     

中国地产商遇寒冬 海外资本觊觎收购

【英国路透社9月9日】针对中国房地产项目的争夺将在未来数月中大为活跃,因诸多中国房地产开发商在楼盘销量大跌及资金链紧张的困境夹击下只能苟延残喘。     

Daily short interest,idiosyncratic risk,and stock returns

This paper examines the relation between short selling and returns and the impact of arbitrage costs on short sellers’ behavior. Using daily UK short selling data, we find that stocks with low short interest levels experience significant positive returns on both an equal- and value-weighted basis. Economic theory predicts that short sellers avoid establishing positions in stocks with high idiosyncratic risk. Our results indicate a negative relation between short interest and returns among high idiosyncratic risk stocks and that short selling activity is mostly concentrated in low idiosyncratic risk stocks where it is less costly to arbitrage fundamental risk.     

Multinationals without Advantages

We question the widespread argument that firms embarking on foreign direct investments must possess some specific advantages to offset the penalties of operating across national and cultural boundaries. A simple model shows that firms might invest abroad to capture local advantages through geographical proximity of plant location, rather than to exploit existing ones. Because of spatially bounded spillovers, laggard firms might use foreign investments to acquire location-specific knowledge, whereas leading firms might prefer costly exports to avoid the dissipation of their advantages.
JEL classification: F 23; O 32; L 22