Hotel characteristics and occupancy trends: Yorkshire and Humberside hotels, UK, April 1982–March 1984

This study extends the analysis of hotel occupancy in Yorkshire and Humberside, UK, hotels reported in the March 1985 issue of this journal, and confirms the ‘stability’ of the three previously identified dimensions of occupancy performance which reflect differences in overall occupancy levels, intensity of seasonal fluctuations, and length of season. The focus shifts to the identification and interpretation of longer term trends in occupancy performance. The results of a questionnaire survey of hotels are used in a stepwise regression model to relate occupancy trends to a range of ‘predictor’ variables measuring different aspects of the hotels and their management.     

Dilemmas in linking succession planning to individual executive learning

This paper examines the issue of linking the selection of top-level executives with the development of these people. It first describes three stages in an organization's development of a succession system which promotes the attainment of a firm's objectives: 1) oneposition staffing, 2) replacement planning, and 3) succession planning. Then we examine the other piece to be connected to succession planning: executive learning. It is argued that most planned executive development is aimed at task learning, not personal learning. Consistent with this condition, most executive education activities overstress classroomstyle receptive methods, while neglecting active learning. Reasons for this state of affairs are proposed. The paper concludes with recommendations for enhancing personal learning for executives and for better integrating this learning with the strategic succession planning of the organization. This sort of strategic approach to executive succession is seen as the “acid test” in a firm's strategic planning process.     

Strategic Responses to Bank Regulation: Evidence From HMDA Data

The intent of fair lending regulation is to encourage loans in low-income areas and ensure that loan decisions are based on economic criteria instead of noneconomic borrower characteristics. We evaluate situations in which banks may find it in their self interest to respond to regulation in a strategic manner intended to improve public relations and appease regulators rather than to adhere to the true spirit of the regulation. We find some evidence consistent with such behavior.     

Journal of Economic Growth

Volume of Contents

Journal of Economic Growth     

Testing the capital asset pricing model efficiently under elliptical symmetry: a semiparametric approach

We develop new tests of the capital asset pricing model that take account of and are valid under the assumption that the distribution generating returns is elliptically symmetric; this assumption is necessary and sufficient for the validity of the CAPM. Our test is based on semiparametric efficient estimation procedures for a seemingly unrelated regression model where the multivariate error density is elliptically symmetric, but otherwise unrestricted. The elliptical symmetry assumption allows us to avoid the curse of dimensionality problem that typically arises in multivariate semiparametric estimation procedures, because the multivariate elliptically symmetric density function can be written as a function of a scalar transformation of the observed multivariate data. The elliptically symmetric family includes a number of thick‐tailed distributions and so is potentially relevant in financial applications. Our estimated betas are lower than the OLS estimates, and our parameter estimates are much less consistent with the CAPM restrictions than the corresponding OLS estimates. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

经济变迁的过程

非常高兴再次来到中国经济研究中心.能再次来到中国也令人非常愉快,因为中国是世界上最有意思、最富挑战性的国家,尤其与我的研究兴趣相关--经济和社会变迁的过程,这正是我要与你们谈的话题.传统的经济学理论是静态的,它提供了理论分析的框架,解释市场或经济的各个部分在某一时刻是如何运行的.但它不能解释经济随着时间的推     

Coal gasification: An economic evaluation

Political interest in developing the capability to produce gaseous fuel from coal in the United States has been cyclical in nature, depending primarily upon the security of the international market for oil and public attitudes toward nuclear power. Interest in coal gasification technology by private investors, however, depends primarily on the economic and technological considerations analyzed in this paper. A cost forecasting model is developed with the capability to take into account future economic and technological uncertainties associated with producing high BTU gas (a substitute for natural gas) from coal. The cost forecasting model incorporates probabilistic information on key economic and technological parameters subject to future uncertainty and simulates, by Monte Carlo methods, the costs which private investors would incur over the life of a commercial size coal gasification plant. The results suggest it is highly unlikely that the coal gasification process could produce high BTU gas more cheaply than the price at which natural gas is likely to be available.The cost forecasting model is also modified to compare the cost per kilowatt–hour of generated electricity when fueling a 1,000 Mw power plant with oil versus high BTU gas from coal. Again, based upon the costs to private investors, the simulation results indicate a very low probability that high BTU gas from coal would prove the least costly fuel for generating electricity.The implied economic infeasibility for private investment in coal gasification does not necessarily provide a basis for public policy to abandon the technology. Public policy recommendations must consider social costs as well as private costs. Possibly the greatest social cost associated with abandoning coal gasification is the risk of a significant energy supply interruption. A diversified national energy policy including coal gasification may in fact be less costly if relevant social costs are included in the calculations. Results from the cost forecasting model indicate the size and type of public subsidies that may be necessary to support a diversified energy industry which would include coal gasification.     

A closer look at Black–Scholes option thetas

This paper investigates Black–Scholes call and put option thetas, and derives upper and lower bounds for thetas as a function of underlying asset value. It is well known that the maximum time premium of an option occurs when the underlying asset value equals the exercise price. However, we show that the maximum option theta does not occur at that point, but instead occurs when the asset value is somewhat above the exercise price. We also show that option theta is not monotonic in any of the parameters in the Black–Scholes option-pricing model, including time to maturity. We further explain why the implications of these findings are important for trading and hedging strategies that are affected by the decay in an option’s time premium.

Evidence-based staffing: potential roles for informatics

Over the last 15 years, evidence has been accumulating relating higher levels of nurse staffing in both quantity and experience to lower rates of adverse patient outcomes. Consequently, to promote quality patient outcomes efficiently, making staffing decisions based in evidence is of increasing importance. However, there is still limited data to help decide how to effectively allocate scarce nurse resources in practice. Existing principles, frameworks, and guidelines provide a foundation for nurse staffing decisions but face poor adoption. To determine optimal nurse staffing practices and provide evidence-based recommendations for policy, and integration into operations, comprehensive data are necessary. Information technology can assist nurse staffing decisions. Four informatics processes that may support evidence-based nurse staffing are described: (a) Data acquisition from multiple data sources, (b) Representation of data in a way it can be re-used for multiple purposes, (c) Sophisticated data processing and mining, and (d) Presentation of data in standardized and user-configurable ways.