How (Over) Confident Are Financial Analysts?

Extensive research has been devoted to the quality of analysts' earnings forecasts. The common finding is that analysts' forecasts are not very accurate. Prior studies have tended to focus on the mean of forecasts and measure accuracy using various summaries of forecast errors. The present study sheds new light on the accuracy of analysts' forecasts, by measuring how well calibrated these forecasts are. The authors follow the tradition of calibration studies in psychological literature and measure the degree of calibration by the hit rate. They analyze a year's worth of data from the Institutional Brokers Estimate System database, which includes over 200,000 annual earnings forecasts made by over 6,000 analysts for over 5,000 companies. By using different ways to convert analysts' point estimates of earnings into a range of values, the authors establish the bounds that are necessary to determine the hit rates, and examine to what extent the actual earnings announced by the companies are bracketed by these intervals. These hit rates provide a more complete picture of the accuracy of the forecasts.     

Private Wealth in a Developing Country:Evidence from South Africa

The point of departure of Piketty's influential Capital in the Twenty‐First Century (2014) was the dramatic growth of private wealth‐income ratios in advanced economies between 1970 and 2010. Using official balance sheet data for South Africa—the first country to publish such data in the developing world—, this paper examines to what extent this re‐emergence of private wealth was also experienced in the developing‐country context. First, we find that the South African current wealth‐income ratio is very close to its 1975 level, and much lower than those of Piketty's sample of advanced economies. Second, we show that the discrepancy is explained not only by South Africa's relatively low savings rates, but also by the reduction of wealth before and during the transition to democracy in the 1990s. Since then, private wealth recovered significantly, but the U‐shaped relationship does not support the argument that there is a clear correlation between the capital‐income ratio and capital share.     

中外企业联盟中中方企业的知识内部整合

为解决中外企业联盟中中方企业自主创新能力难以得到有效提高这一实际存在的问题,提出应在中方企业外部知识吸收活动和知识创新活动之间构建一条合理而有效的沟通途径,即知识内部整合。将中方企业的知识内部整合活动划分为4个子活动:知识共享活动、知识组织化活动、知识本地化活动与知识应用活动,分析了其知识内部整合的具体过程。最后讨论了4个子活动之间的相互关系,并建立了相应的关系概念模型。     

高校债务重组与化解路径选择

近年来,高校在承担一部分社会责任的同时,也使自己背上沉重的债务包袱。不断累积的债务本金及利息负担,在相当程度上减少了学校可支配资源,从而降低了高校在人才引进、队伍建设、实验室建设等方面的投入,进而严重制约高校的发展。本文在简要分析高校债务成因的基础上,揭示其风险,并结合实际探寻债务重组与化解的路径。     

转型期的中国城市贫困问题及治理

城市贫困问题是实现全面建成小康社会的重大障碍之一,认识城市贫困问题依赖于"贫困识别-机理-反贫困"的系统研究。我国城市贫困人口众多,贫困发生率敏感性高,呈现地域分布显著差异显著、结构复杂化和低龄化、贫富差距严重、空间聚居不断边缘化的特点。社会结构和个体行为两个方面的原因导致了城市贫困问题的产生,对城市的经济、社会、政治发展都产生了不利影响。尽管当前的反贫困政策取得了一定成效,但仍然存在不能满足贫困者最低层次的多种需求,忽视了对贫困群体能力开发的问题。新时期的城市贫困治理应当在完善社会保障体系、加强城市基础设施建设、开展职业教育培训、鼓励有能力的贫困群体积极参加工作等方面展开。     

从收容遣送制度到社会救助制度的优化分析

本文对收容遣送制度、流浪救助制度建立的价值目标及手段进行比较分析，指出流浪救助制度在立法目的、救助手段、权利倾向、政府责任承担上的优化，进一步指出现行流浪救助制度的新问题，并指出流浪救助制度发展的方向。期待流浪救助制度能不断优化。从而使流浪救助制度价值目标实现逐步走向完善。     

农村合作金融的制度安排与绩效--日本经验及借鉴

目前我国农村信用社进入深化改革阶段,在产权制度、管理体制、运作模式等方面都取得了一定成效,但仍存在着一些问题.本文介绍了日本农村合作金融的制度安排,探讨其成功经验,在此基础上提出对我国农村信用社改革的经验借鉴.     

三一重工品牌铸造策略探究

近几年,国内工程机械制造异军突起,发展十分迅速,三一重工就是其中的典型。三一重工在很短的时间内发展成国际知名的企业,背后的必然是其始终坚持人才兴企的原则,大力加强技术创新、营销服务与国际化战略,打造了内部特色鲜明的企业文化,不断提升企业品牌的知名度和忠诚度,推动企业实现跨越式发展。     

地方财经类院校产学研结合困境与出路研究

地方财经类院校在产学研合作中存在着人才与技术匮乏、起步晚、研究积累期和成果见效期长等问题,"服务社会"的教育观念和"致用之学"的学科特色要求财经类院校必须开展产学研工作。财经类院校产学研合作应当找出路,并从观念、制度和资金等方面予以保障。     

土地财政对地方政府社会保障支出的补给效应

分税制改革以来,土地财政已经成为地方政府增强财力的重要来源,与土地财政相伴的是地方政府大规模的征地拆迁行为。按照相关规定,地方政府应将一部分土地出让收益用于补助被征地农民的社会保障事业。那么,预算外土地出让收益对被征地农民社会保障事业的补偿是否带动预算内的社会保障支出的增加呢?文章在模型估计及数据整理分析的基础上发现,虽然地方政府土地财政对社会保障支出存在补给效应,即土地财政对社会保障支出具有刺激作用;但由于受地方政府自利性与公共性的影响,土地财政对地方政府社会保障支出的补给效应仍存在诸多问题,未来我国对"土地换保障"的硬性规定势必要进一步明确。