SENIORITY SEATING AT THE ROYAL OPERA HOUSE

This paper examines lotteries and seniority queues as formsof commodity bundling price discrimination. There are good andbad seats, and two types of potential purchasers. Offered thechoice of a high-priced good seat and a moderately-priced bundleof good and bad seats, cutomers self-select into high and lowvaluation types. For single period purchases, the bundle isa lottery over good and bad seats. For repeated purchases, monopolistssuch as the Royal Opera House can do better by setting up aseniority allocation system.     

Insights into University Freshman Weight Issues and How They Make Decisions About Eating

The transition from high school to college represents a life turning point during which health behavior paths may be influenced. This study addresses the internal and external factors that guide students' eating decisions as they are understood and relayed by students through qualitative methods. A sample of 102 second semester college freshmen participated in a two‐week data collection period. Results show that many students are caught in a negative cycle of food choices with notable social and environmental determinants impacting both their physical and emotional health.     

Detection Avoidance and Deterrence: Some Paradoxical Arithmetic

This paper extends Malik's analysis to the case where criminals' avoidance efforts and public expenditures in the detection of criminals are strategic complements in the aggregate technology of control of illegal behaviors. In this set up, we show that whenever criminals' avoidance efforts are more sensitive to the frequency than to the severity of sanctions, it is always socially efficient to set the fine at the maximal possible level. However, several paradoxical consequences occur: there may exist overdeterrence at optimum; more repressive policies lead to fewer arrests of offenders while more crimes may be committed; at the same time, the society may be closer to the first best number of crimes.     

A Political Agency Theory of Central Bank Independence

We propose a simple theory to explain why, and under what circumstances, a politician delegates policy tasks to a technocrat in an independent institution and then analyze under what conditions delegation is optimal for society. Our theory builds on Holmström's (1982, 1999) “hidden effort” principal–agent model. The election pressures that politicians face, and the absence of such pressures for technocrats, give rise to a dynamic incentive structure that formalizes two rationales for delegation, one highlighted by Hamilton (1788) and the other by Blinder (1998) . Delegation trades off the cost of having a possibly incompetent technocrat with a long‐term job contract against the benefit of having a technocrat who (i) invests more effort into the specialized policy task and (ii) is better insulated from the whims of public opinion. A natural application of our framework suggests a new theory of central bank independence.     

THE WAIVER PORK BARREL: COMMITTEE MEMBERSHIP AND THE APPROVAL TIME OF MEDICAID WAIVERS

Recent growth in Medicaid spending has forced states to look for ways to slow the program's rate of growth. Under the Medicaid program's rules, state governments must submit a waiver to the federal government in order to implement a cost-saving program. The time required to process a waiver varies from 14 days to over three years. This study examines the determinants of the time it takes to process a waiver and the number of revisions required before final approval. The results indicate that an increase in the tenure of the state's delegation to the House oversight committee reduces the time to approval for Freedom of Choice waivers. However, more liberal committee members appear to delay waivers. The results complement the existing literature on the pork barrel by showing that seniority on a committee is an important determinant-not only of monetary benefits but also of nonmonetary benefits. ( JEL H51, 118)     

CAP Forum on E‐Business: Compromise or Customize: XBRL's Paradoxical Power

Business reports are changing in response to regulatory and market demands. Requests by regulators for electronic filings of financial statements and tax forms are increasing and such filings are rapidly becoming mandatory in many countries. In response, extensible business reporting language (XBRL) is a market‐driven, collaborative effort to make electronic filings more useful to, and to reduce the burden on, both publishers and consumers of business reports. XBRL does much more than simply list data items that can be submitted in an electronic filing. XBRL is a complete set of tools for regulators or groups to fully communicate the meanings of and interrelationships among the business reporting concepts. In addition, core sets of concepts from regulators or groups can be extended, expanded, or otherwise modified for more specific communication by jurisdictions, industries, or individual corporations. This unique customization capability lets companies better present their electronic filings as parallels to their paper filings. A “customizable standard” offers new opportunities and new challenges. This paper discusses XBRL's paradoxical power ‐ the trade‐offs between customizing to better parallel existing paper reports and compromising to more closely match the standards, and the research needed for the transition from freeform to customized reports.     

Incremental Information Content of the Change in the Percent of Production Added to Inventory*

Abstract. Manufacturing firms can manipulate income by producing in excess of the quantity needed to meet current period demand, thereby allocating part of current period fixed manufacturing overhead costs from cost of goods sold to inventory. Because it is subject to manipulation, the component of earnings due to producing in excess of sales may be of lower quality than the remaining component of earnings. We investigate this possibility using a regression of security returns on unexpected income and an estimate of the change in percent of production added to inventory (CPAI). An analytical model indicates that CPAI determines the “earnings surprise” subject to manipulation by overproducing. Assuming the market recognizes this, the coefficient on CPAI should be negative because this low quality component must be deducted from the total “good news” conveyed by the change in reported earnings. Alternatively, CPAI may convey good or bad news to the market that is unrelated to the manipulation of current period earnings. Firms may increase the percent of production added to inventory in anticipation of high levels of future sales. In this case, the estimated coefficient on CPAI should be positive. Or, if the increase in the percent of production added to inventory reflects anticipation of a strike or an unexpected downturn in current sales, the estimated coefficient should be negative. Cross-sectional tests using a large sample of manufacturing firms indicate a significant positive relation between security returns and CPAI. This finding is consistent with market participants viewing CPAI as a leading indicator of firm performance. Although the results are most supportive of CPAI conveying good news, there is some evidence that CPAI is used by managers to smooth earnings and, for firms classified as smoothing earnings, there is weak evidence that the component of earnings related to CPAI is viewed by market participants to be of lower quality.     

How Disaggregation Enhances the Credibility of Management Earnings Forecasts

An important problem facing managers is how to enhance the credibility, or believability, of their earnings forecasts. In this paper, we experimentally test whether a characteristic of a management earnings forecast—namely, whether it is disaggregated—can affect its credibility. We also test whether disaggregation moderates the relation between managerial incentives and forecast credibility. Disaggregated forecasts include an earnings forecast as well as forecasts of other key line items comprising that earnings forecast. Our results indicate that disaggregated forecasts are judged to be more credible than aggregated ones and that disaggregation works to counteract the effect of high incentives. We also develop and test an original model that explains how disaggregation positively impacts three factors that, in turn, influence forecast credibility: perceived precision of management's beliefs, perceived clarity of the forecast, and perceived financial reporting quality. We show that forecast disaggregation works to remedy incentive problems only via its effect on perceived financial reporting quality. Overall, our study adds to our understanding of how managers can credibly communicate their expectations about the future to market participants.     

Short-Sales Constraints and Price Discovery: Evidence from the Hong Kong Market

Short‐sales practices in the Hong Kong stock market are unique in that only stocks on a list of designated securities can be sold short. By analyzing the price effects following the addition of individual stocks to the list, we find that short‐sales constraints tend to cause stock overvaluation and that the overvaluation effect is more dramatic for individual stocks for which wider dispersion of investor opinions exists. These findings are consistent with Miller's (1977) intuition and other optimism models. We also document higher volatility and less positive skewness of individual stock returns when short sales are allowed.     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Switching

A growing body of evidence finds that policy reaction functions vary substantially over different periods in the United States. This paper explores how moving to an environment in which monetary and fiscal regimes evolve according to a Markov process can change the impacts of policy shocks. In one regime monetary policy follows the Taylor principle and taxes rise strongly with debt; in another regime the Taylor principle fails to hold and taxes are exogenous. An example shows that a unique bounded non-Ricardian equilibrium exists in this environment. A computational model illustrates that because agents' decision rules embed the probability that policies will change in the future, monetary and tax shocks always produce wealth effects. When it is possible that fiscal policy will be unresponsive to debt at times, active monetary policy (like a Taylor rule) in one regime is not sufficient to insulate the economy against tax shocks in that regime and it can have the unintended consequence of amplifying and propagating the aggregate demand effects of tax shocks. The paper also considers the implications of policy switching for two empirical issues.