Financial Distress and Underemployment

A reasonable model of the labour market over the business cycle should predict, among other things, that (a) in very low states of product demand there may be too little employment from an efficiency perspective, but as the state improves employment will increase until ultimately it is efficiently deployed, and (b) in low states of demand, a worker's welfare level will be "low" and as the state of the world improves so will the worker's welfare, except, possibly, at high levels of demand where the worker's utility may start to fall. Surprisingly, there does not exist a labour contract based model that is consistent with predictions (a) and (b). In fact, the standard results in the literature are if leisure is a normal good then there will be too much employment in essentially all states of the world and the welfare of the worker declines as the state of the world improves. In this paper a labour contracting model is constructed that is consistent with the above mentioned predictions. Two necessary ingredients in the model are the possibility of financial distress in low demand states and "partial provability" in contracting. Financial distress can be viewed as frustrating renegotiation and, thus, inefficient outcomes are possible in equilibrium. Partial provability_the ability of an informed player to make verifiable claims or statements to an uninformed player_eliminates certain kinds of inefficient outcomes. In particular, it eliminates the possibility that, in equilibrium, there is too much employment. This last result is interesting in itself because it is commonly believed that normality of leisure necessarily implies that labour contracting models will generate employment levels that are too high from an efficiency perspective.     

The four spikes

The unintended impacts of human appropriation of the planet's resources have become so numerous, voluminous, and entangled in feedback loops that they often overwhelm the capacities of decisionmakers to cope with current crises, much less prepare for a sustainable future. The difficulty may be alleviated by viewing global change from a broader perspective than is normally offered either by specialists (whose views are necessarily narrow) or by mainstream media (whose interests are usually fragmentary and parochial). From this broader perspective, it can be seen that four “megaphenomena” began sweeping the planet in the past century. Graphed on a time-line of millennia rather than years or days, they appear as four enormous “spikes” — of human population, materials/energy consumption, carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere, and extinctions of species. These megaphenomena account for the proliferation of afflictions swamping humanity at the outset of the 21st century. Understanding the nature of the spikes may offer the most viable means of managing — by attacking the roots — of what could otherwise escalate into an increasingly disastrous cascade of impacts.     

Whither Hong Kong's Unions: Autonomous Trade Unionism or Classic Dualism?

This paper presents an evaluation of the ideologies and behaviour of the main union groupings in Hong Kong. The CTU's 'adversarial' line and 'inclusive' approach has threatened to break with the traditional industrial pacifism of Hong Kong's unions, while the FTU's recognition of its 'dual functioning' role has been balanced by the need to maintain credibility as an effective representative of workers' interests. The TUC has been passive in recent years, and the independent unions tend to be rather inward-looking. Unions remain weak, particularly at the workplace, and it is uncertain to what extent union autonomy can be sustained.     

Private takings

This paper examines the implications associated with a recent Supreme Court ruling, Kelo v. City of New London (2005). Kelo can be interpreted as supporting eminent domain as a means of transferring property rights from one set of private agents—landowners—to another private agent—a developer. Under voluntary exchange, where the developer sequentially acquires property rights from landowners via bargaining, a holdout problem arises. Eminent domain gives all of the bargaining power to the developer and, as a result, eliminates the holdout problem. This is the benefit of Kelo. However, landowners lose all their bargaining power and, as a result, their property investments become more inefficient. This is the cost of Kelo. A policy of eminent domain increases social welfare compared to voluntary sequential exchange only when the holdout problem is severe, and this occurs only if the developer has very little bargaining power. We propose an alternative government policy that eliminates the holdout problem but does not affect the bargaining power of the various parties. This alternative policy strictly dominates a policy of eminent domain, which implies that eminent domain is an inefficient way to transfer property rights between private agents.     

The National Audit Office's Evaluation of RIAs: Reflections on the Pilot Year

In 2003, the National Audit Office undertook its first year of evaluations of the quality of a sample of Regulatory Impact Assessments (RIAs). This article reflects on the experiences of this pilot year. It sets out the background to the National Audit Office's work, describes the methodology adopted, and then explains the main findings. Finally, it considers the benefits and limitations of this type of ex-post evaluation of the quality of RIAs.     

Banking and the Real Economy

Ed Clark discusses the importance of banking in the real economy, the weakening of trust of banks on the part of the public, and what banks must do to reclaim that trust. In particular, he cites the need for adequate capitalization and the need for cultural change within banking. There must be a shift back to a focus on the needs of customers rather than the potential gains from casino-like activity. He also discusses changes that have taken place in technology and operating practices in basic banking to provide better service to customers. He expresses a need for more informed bank regulation to avoid asset bubbles.