Forecasting core competencies in an R&D environment

This study, carried out in 1998, aimed to develop a method of forecasting core competencies in an agricultural research organization, using the Delphi Technique. First, based on a survey of internal documents and interviews, nine organizational core competencies and their specific components (human competencies) were defined, and expert judges identified. These judges responded to a questionnaire, in which the importance of the future human competencies was assessed and the organization's existing human capacity was evaluated. Means were calculated for both judgements and changes were made in various definitions, based on the experts' comments. Another questionnaire was designed and sent out to an expanded panel of judges to confirm or to revise the priority mean scores obtained or to add scores in the case of competencies that entered later. Factor analysis and reliability scores have demonstrated internal and inter‐competency consistencies. Technological Innovation Management and Geo‐processing appeared as the top priorities and Plant Pathology as the least priority. Priorities for each human competency were also calculated and they have been helpful for decision‐making concerning the selection and graduate training of researchers on the organization studied.     

On the role of money in a business cycle model of a small open economy: The case of Spain

This paper examines the consequences of introducing a cash-in-advance constraint into a small open economy business cycle model for the Spanish case. A business cycle model is built extending Correia, Neves and Rebelo's (1995) small open economy framework and Cooley and Hansen's (1995) monetary economy. Money is introduced through a cash-in-advance constraint. The stochastic simulation of the model and its comparison to Spanish data show that the model is able to mimic i) the Dolado et al. puzzle, that is, the high volatility of private consumption for this economy; ii) the Dunlop-Tarshis observation, i.e., the negative correlation between real wages and hours worked; and iii) some cyclical features of the nominal dimension.     

The Relative Valuation of Caps and Swaptions: Theory and Empirical Evidence

Although traded as distinct products, caps and swaptions are linked by no-arbitrage relations through the correlation structure of interest rates. Using a string market model, we solve for the correlation matrix implied by swaptions and examine the relative valuation of caps and swaptions. We find that swaption prices are generated by four factors and that implied correlations are lower than historical correlations. Long-dated swaptions appear mispriced and there were major pricing distortions during the 1998 hedge-fund crisis. Cap prices periodically deviate significantly from the no-arbitrage values implied by the swaptions market.     

Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words

Most of the empirical literature on exchange rate regimes uses the IMF de jure classification based on the regime announced by the governments, despite the recognized inconsistencies between reported and actual policies in many cases. To address this problem, we construct a de facto classification based on data on exchange rates and international reserves from all IMF-reporting countries over the period 1974-2000, which we believe provides a meaningful alternative for future empirical work on the topic. The classification sheds new light on several stylized facts previously reported in the literature. In particular, we find that the de facto pegs have remained stable throughout the last decade, although an increasing number of them shy away from an explicit commitment to a fixed regime (“hidden pegs”). We confirm the hollowing out hypothesis but show that it does not apply to countries with limited access to capital markets. We also find that pure floats are associated with only relatively minor nominal exchange rate volatility and that the recent increase in the number of de jure floats goes hand in hand with an increase in the number of de facto dirty floats (“fear of floating”).     

Endogenous technology and sectoral productivity: Chile 1962–1982

The choice of sectoral productivity in Chile is studied within the choice of technique approach. The choice of production techniques is an economic problem in that the techniques implemented at any time reflect the prevailing economic environment, as well as its history. Incorporating this choice in the analysis adds another channel through which market conditions can influence productivity while neglecting this simple fact leads to a distorted view of the production process. This view of production is applied here to present an econometric framework for estimating sectoral production functions. The derived function has the form of a Cobb-Douglas function, but its coefficients are allowed to vary in response to the economic environment and to factor utilization. The results show the important effect that macro, external, and institutional shocks have on the level and cyclical behavior of productivity.The editor of this paper was Jaime de Melo.     

Short-cuts in issuance decisions and subsequent small firm performance

This paper examines the subsequent change in performance characteristics of companies that make security issuance choices consistent with “following the herd.” It extends the literature on decision heuristics (i.e., decision short-cuts) by exploring the outcome of mimicking behavior. Results suggest that firms that issue equity in an environment consistent with mimicking are associated with subsequent increased risk of bankruptcy relative to their non-mimicking counterparts. Moreover, the results also suggest that these mimicking actions are not associated with subsequent changes in profitability. This gives support to the argument that decision short-cuts produce suboptimal results. Moreover, the effect is concentrated in very small (i.e., micro-cap) companies, but not present for companies in larger size categories. Similar patterns for debt issuers who mimic competitors are not observed, which may reflect the greater scrutiny imposed by lenders and debt under-writers with regard to debt issuances.

Negotiation Based on Fuzzy Logic and Knowledge Engineering: Some Case Studies

One of the most recent mathematical models for negotiation is the Compensatory Negotiation Solution by Knowledge Engineering (CNSKE). In this model a logic system called Compensatory Fuzzy Logic was used, which is more adequate to solve problems of decision making than the classical one probabilistic fuzzy logic system. The idempotency axiom of this system and the continuity of the operators allow the truth-values of the membership function to have a cardinal and not exclusively ordinal semantic meaning. On the other hand, continuity also makes ‘sensible’ the truth-values of the predicates. The aim of this paper is to illustrate the advantages of the CNSKE over other approaches in Game Theory. To show these advantages, some case studies are analyzed, consisting on the solution of three problems in which CNSKE is applied in economic and politic cases of negotiation, and compared with other alternative approaches.