Second and higher moments of fundamentals: A literature review

This literature review outlines the recent progress in fundamental second and higher moments of research. We survey the moments’ existence, formation, and financial market and macroeconomic implications. Research shows that time‐varying volatility and non‐Gaussian shocks exist throughout all measures of fundamentals at both the micro‐ and macro levels. In addition, the granular network among firms helps explain the origin of fundamental second and higher moments. Empirical evidence shows that the moments have strong predictive power on asset prices and macroeconomic variables. We also highlight several areas where more research is needed to better understand the moments.     

An Analysis of Accounting Frauds and the Timing of Analyst Coverage Decisions and Recommendation Revisions: Evidence from the US

This paper provides a comprehensive exploration of the types of accounting fraud committed by firms over the period 1995–2009. Using detailed data from US SEC Accounting and Auditing Enforcement Releases (AAER), we examine the likelihood and timing of analyst coverage decisions and recommendation revisions related to fraud firms versus firms without accounting fraud. We find that analysts have a higher probability of taking the more severe action of dropping coverage rather than only revising down recommendations for firms with any type of accounting fraud and also for specific egregious types of accounting fraud. Through the use of competing hazards models, we also find that accounting frauds and their egregiousness are positively (negatively) associated with the timeliness of the analysts’ action to drop coverage (revise only). Overall, we find that analysts’ actions may be useful in determining the occurrence of accounting fraud prior to the public announcement of the fraud.     

Regulating the timing of disclosure: Insights from the acceleration of 10-K filing deadlines

We study the effects of regulating the timing of disclosure on the quality of accounting information, using a 2003 US regulatory change that accelerates 10-K filing deadlines as a research setting. Employing a difference-in-differences design, we find that the likelihood of issuing financial statements that are later restated increases for firms that are required to file more quickly, relative to firms whose filing practices are not affected by the regulatory change. This effect is particularly pronounced during the audit busy season, when auditors also face significant time pressure. These results are consistent with a tradeoff between how quickly accounting reports are required to be filed and the reliability of the resulting reports.     

Identifying and evaluating adaptation strategies for cruise tourism in Arctic Canada

The cruise tourism industry in Arctic Canada has recently grown rapidly with stable numbers now emerging. While there are many socio-economic opportunities associated with growth, climate change, and environmental, technical and cultural risks also present significant management challenges. To enhance understanding of these opportunities and risks, this study adopted a policy Delphi approach to identify and evaluate potential adaptation strategies to aid decision-makers and policy-makers managing cruise tourism development and its associated impacts. Over 500 ideas were identified. These were distilled down to 65 potential adaptation options, which were evaluated for priority and feasibility by key stakeholders including local residents, tourism operators, and policy-makers. The majority of recommendations were evaluated as of high priority and most options were perceived to be somewhat affordable and implementable. Key needs included disaster management plans, updated technology and ship navigation systems, improved marine resource mapping, and the development of a code of conduct for cruise tourists to guide visitor behaviour and promote a sustainable approach. The research represents the first empirical study to identify and evaluate adaptation strategies for cruise tourism development in Arctic Canada and outlines current priorities, opportunities, and challenges associated with managing socio-economic change in Arctic Canada in sustainable ways.     

Non-manipulability in Walrasian cost games

JEL classification: D41, D51 Received: 24 December 1999 / Accepted: 18 October 2001     

Uncertainty triggers overreaction: evidence from corporate takeovers

Behavioural finance models suggest that under uncertainty, investors overweight their private information and overreact to it. We test this theoretical prediction in an M&A framework. We find that under high information uncertainty, when investors are more likely to possess firm-specific information, acquiring firms generate highly positive and significant gains following the announcement of private stock and private cash acquisitions (positive news) while the market heavily punishes public stock (negative news) deals. On the other hand, under conditions of low information uncertainty, when investors do not possess private information, the market reaction is complete (i.e. zero abnormal returns) irrespective of the type of acquisition. Overall, we provide empirical evidence that shows that information uncertainty plays a significant role in explaining short-run acquirer abnormal returns.     

Mean–field moral hazard for optimal energy demand response management

We study the problem of demand response contracts in electricity markets by quantifying the impact of considering a continuum of consumers with mean–field interaction, whose consumption is impacted by a common noise. We formulate the problem as a Principal–Agent problem with moral hazard in which the Principal—she—is an electricity producer who observes continuously the consumption of a continuum of risk‐averse consumers, and designs contracts in order to reduce her production costs. More precisely, the producer incentivizes each consumer to reduce the average and the volatility of his consumption in different usages, without observing the efforts he makes. We prove that the producer can benefit from considering the continuum of consumers by indexing contracts on the consumption of one Agent and aggregate consumption statistics from the distribution of the entire population of consumers. In the case of linear energy valuation, we provide closed‐form expression for this new type of optimal contracts that maximizes the utility of the producer. In most cases, we show that this new type of contracts allows the Principal to choose the risks she wants to bear, and to reduce the problem at hand to an uncorrelated one.     

Managing future uncertainty: Reevaluating the role of scenario planning

The business environment for many firms is changing rapidly and is becoming increasingly uncertain due to the disruption caused by new digital technologies, deregulation, new business models, and the threat of new competitive entrants. This dynamic competitive environment increases the level of uncertainty for senior executives and strategic planning teams who bear responsibility for the strategic development of the firm, particularly in terms of the future direction, scope, and the strategy required to deliver on corporate objectives. This in turn, places increased scrutiny on the strategic planning tools that are used to undertake a rational and comprehensive analysis of the competitive dynamics that inform strategy formulation. This article presents empirical findings and reflections on a scenario-planning project that sought to develop a long-term corporate level strategy. While scenario planning is an established constituent of the strategist’s toolbox, the increasing level of dynamism and uncertainty in many markets has meant that it has seen a resurgence. This article presents empirical findings on how the scenario-planning tool was selected and applied before reflecting on the individual and organizational outcomes of using scenario planning to develop an organizational strategy in uncertain market conditions.