Underwriting the elderly: the utility of DWR, part II

Cognitive function is an important predictor of mortality in the elderly. Over the past few years, an increasing number of life insurance companies have incorporated screening for cognitive impairment into the underwriting process at older ages. Many different test instruments provide a measurement of cognitive function. Among these, the 10 word delayed word recall test (DWR) offers the best opportunity to study mortality directly, because of a long history of use in long-term care risk assessment. This article revises and extends a previous report published in the Journal in 2006 looking at the relationship between DWR score and mortality.     

Identification and information in monotone binary models

This paper considers binary response models where errors are uncorrelated with a set of instrumental variables and are independent of a continuous regressor v$v$, conditional on all other variables. It is shown that these exclusion restrictions are not sufficient for identification and that additional identifying assumptions are needed. Such an assumption, introduced by Lewbel [Semiparametric qualitative response model estimation with unknown heteroskedasticity or instrumental variables. Journal of Econometrics 97, 145–177], is that the support of the continuous regressor is large, but we show that it significantly restricts the class of binary phenomena which can be analysed. We propose an alternative additional assumption under which β$\beta$ remains just identified and the estimation unchanged. This alternative assumption does not impose specific restrictions on the data, which broadens the scope of the estimation method in empirical work. The semiparametric efficiency bound of the model is also established and an existing estimator is shown to achieve that bound. The efficient estimator uses a plug-in density estimate. It is shown that plugging in the true density rather than an estimate is inefficient. Extensions to ordered choice models are provided.     

Health care reform: universal access is feasible and necessary

While other industrial nations' health care systems have their own problems, they have more leeway to address those problems than does the United States, which spends twice as much on per capita health care as the average for other industrial capitalist democracies yet ranks average or below average in many comparative measures of health care quality. In fact, the authors of this article argue that international experience shows that assurance of universal access through expanded government involvement could provide savings while actually improving the quality of U.S. health care. In addition, universal access would recognize health care as a basic human right, not a commodity to be bartered in the marketplace and allocated based on class, race and social position.     

The distributional impact of large dams: Evidence from cropland productivity in Africa

We examine the distributional impact of large dams on cropland productivity in Africa. As our unit of analysis we use a hydrology based spatial breakdown of the continent that allows one to exactly define regions in terms of their upstream/downstream relationship at a highly disaggregated level. We then use satellite data to derive measures of cropland productivity within these areas. Our econometric analysis shows that while regions downstream benefit from large dams, no beneficial effects accrue to cropland within the vicinity. Moreover, we find that the productivity enhancing impact of upstream dams is dependent on the local climate. Overall our results suggest that upstream dams have quantitatively on average provided up to 12% of the minimum daily per capita amount of kilocalorie needs in downstream communities and increased agricultural production by 1%.     

A dynamic two country Heckscher–Ohlin model with non-homothetic preferences

We examine the properties of a two-country dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin model that allows for preferences to be non-homothetic. We show that the model has a continuum of steady state equilibria under free trade, with the initial conditions determining which equilibrium will be attained. We establish conditions under which a static Heckscher–Ohlin theorem will hold in the steady state, and also conditions for a dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin theorem to hold. If both goods are normal, each country will have a unique autarkic steady state, and all steady state equilibria are saddle points. We also consider the case in which one good is inferior, and show that this can lead to multiple autarkic steady states, violations of the static Heckscher–Ohlin theorem in the steady state. Furthermore, there may exist steady state equilibria that Pareto dominate other steady states. These steady states will be unstable if discount factors are the same in each country, although they may exhibit dynamic indeterminacy if discount factors differ.     

Monetary–fiscal policy interactions and fiscal stimulus

Increases in government spending trigger substitution effects—both inter- and intra-temporal—and a wealth effect. The ultimate impacts on the economy hinge on current and expected monetary and fiscal policy behavior. Studies that impose active monetary policy and passive fiscal policy typically find that government consumption crowds out private consumption: higher future taxes create a strong negative wealth effect, while the active monetary response increases the real interest rate. This paper estimates Markov-switching policy rules for the United States and finds that monetary and fiscal policies fluctuate between active and passive behavior. When the estimated joint policy process is imposed on a conventional new Keynesian model, government spending generates positive consumption multipliers in some policy regimes and in simulated data in which all policy regimes are realized. The paper reports the model's predictions of the macroeconomic impacts of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act's implied path for government spending under alternative monetary–fiscal policy combinations.     

Inflation and the fiscal limit

We use a rational expectations framework to assess the implications of rising debt in an environment with a “fiscal limit”. The fiscal limit is defined as the point where the government no longer has the ability to finance higher debt levels by increasing taxes, so either an adjustment to fiscal spending or monetary policy must occur to stabilize debt. We give households a joint probability distribution over the various policy adjustments that may occur, as well as over the timing of when the fiscal limit is hit. One policy option that stabilizes debt is a passive monetary policy, which generates a burst of inflation that devalues the existing nominal debt stock. The probability of this outcome places upward pressure on inflation expectations and poses a substantial challenge to a central bank pursuing an inflation target. The distribution of outcomes for the path of future inflation has a fat right tail, revealing that only a small set of outcomes imply dire inflationary scenarios. Avoiding these scenarios, however, requires the fiscal authority to renege on some share of future promised transfers.     

Natural Environment,Market Orientation,and Firm Innovativeness: An Organizational Life Cycle Perspective

Drawing upon the corporate social responsibility literature, we investigate the moderating effects of the natural environment and the stage of an organization's life cycle on the market orientation to firm innovativeness relationship. Through 229 owners or chief executive officer respondents, our results establish evidence of (1) a positive linkage between market orientation and firm innovativeness; (2) natural environmental policy positively moderating the market orientation to firm innovativeness relationship; and (3) organizational life cycle negatively moderating market orientation to innovativeness. Our findings suggest ventures characterized as being early in the organizational life cycle are more likely to have a positive environmental policy toward the natural environment leading to a competitive advantage through firm innovativeness.