RATING BASED LÉVY LIBOR MODEL

In this paper, we consider modeling of credit risk within the Libor market models. We extend the classical definition of the default‐free forward Libor rate and develop the rating based Libor market model to cover defaultable bonds with credit ratings. As driving processes for the dynamics of the default‐free and the predefault term structure of Libor rates, time‐inhomogeneous Lévy processes are used. Credit migration is modeled by a conditional Markov chain, whose properties are preserved under different forward Libor measures. Conditions for absence of arbitrage in the model are derived and valuation formulae for some common credit derivatives in this setup are presented.     

Do mobile banner ads increase sales? Yes,in the offline channel

Firms allocate increasingly large budgets to mobile banner advertising. Yet, existing research paid only scant attention to the sales effects of mobile banner ads. In this paper, we fill this gap by determining the offline and online sales impact of a large-scale mobile banner advertising campaign. As part of a geographical field experiment, over 3.5 million mobile banner ads were served to a predetermined geographical area. We determine the offline and online sales effects of the mobile banner ad campaign by analyzing twenty months of sales data for regions covering the entire country of the Netherlands. Relying on a difference-in-difference approach and two matching methods, we demonstrate an offline sales increase of around 2%. The online sales effect is not significant. We conclude that firms can use mobile banner advertising to boost offline sales. We find no evidence for cross-channel sales cannibalization.     

Multiple curve Lévy forward price model allowing for negative interest rates

In this paper, we develop a framework for discretely compounding interest rates that is based on the forward price process approach. This approach has a number of advantages, in particular in the current market environment. Compared to the classical as well as the Lévy Libor market model, it allows in a natural way for negative interest rates and has superb calibration properties even in the presence of extremely low rates. Moreover, the measure changes along the tenor structure are significantly simplified. These properties make it an excellent base for a postcrisis multiple curve setup. Two variants for multiple curve constructions based on the multiplicative spreads are discussed. Time‐inhomogeneous Lévy processes are used as driving processes. An explicit formula for the valuation of caps is derived using Fourier transform techniques. Relying on the valuation formula, we calibrate the two model variants to market data.     

Lebensstandardsicherndes Niveau der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung erforderlich

The German government appointed a pension scheme commission to deliver a new reliable “generation agreement”. But the critics of the contribution scheme overlook the increasing real income in the long term that makes the higher contribution possible. A new solution is not necessary; the government should rather refrain from making any reductions to the legal pension scheme.     

DYNAMICS BETWEEN NORTH AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN AGRICULTURAL FUTURES PRICES DURING TURMOIL AND FINANCIALIZATION

North American and European agricultural futures markets faced significant changes in recent years, i.e., the financialization which originated in the USA, the increase of futures trading in Europe and the recent price turmoils in international commodity markets. We analyse the long‐ and short‐run dynamics between North American and European agricultural futures prices during these institutional changes. The empirical results show that the US markets lead in terms of price transmissions and volatility spillovers. US markets, however, predominantly react to deviations from the long‐run equilibrium which indicates a rising impact of European agricultural markets on a global scale.     

A multiple-curve Lévy forward rate model in a two-price economy

An advanced Heath–Jarrow–Morton forward rate model driven by time-inhomogeneous Lévy processes is presented which is able to handle the recent development to multiple curves and negative interest rates. It is also able to exploit bid and ask price data. In this approach in order to model spreads between curves for different tenors, credit as well as liquidity risk is taken into account. Deterministic conditions are derived to ensure the positivity of spreads and thus the monotonicity of the curves for the various tenors. Valuation formulas for standard interest rate derivatives such as caps, floors, swaptions and digital options are established. These formulas can be evaluated numerically very fast using Fourier-based valuation methods. In order to exploit bid and ask prices we develop this approach in the context of a two-price economy. Explicit formulas for bid as well as ask prices of the derivatives are stated. A specific model framework based on normal inverse Gaussian and Gamma processes is proposed which allows for calibration to market data. Calibration results are presented based on multiple-curve bootstrapping and cap market quotes. We use data from September 2013 as well as September 2016. The latter is of particular interest since rates were deep in negative territory at that time.     

Insider trading legislation and corporate governance

This paper analyzes the impact of insider trading legislation on corporate governance. In a context where large, dominant shareholders can monitor underperforming companies, managers have an incentive to give early warnings about adverse developments to dominant shareholders. This information is effectively a bribe to induce dominant shareholders to sell their stock and refrain from intervention. If insider trading is unregulated, dominant shareholders collude with management at the expense of small shareholders. The optimal regime forces the company to disclose all material information to the market. Private contracting between companies and shareholders leads to optimal insider trading regulation only if initial shareholders can enter a binding commitment, otherwise large shareholders and managers recontract at the expense of small shareholders. Enforcement also matters. European Union legislation requires inside information to be precise. Such a narrow definition creates a grey zone, where information is private but cannot be classified as inside information. As a result the effectiveness of corporate governance and firm value are reduced. Regulation in the US that treats shareholders with a stake exceeding 10% as insiders is potentially harmful.     

Fairness, errors and the power of competition

In this paper, we investigate the effects of competition on bargained outcomes. We show that the neglect of either fairness concerns or decision errors will prevent a satisfactory understanding of how competition affects bargaining. We conducted experiments which demonstrate that introducing a small amount of competition to a bilateral ultimatum game – by adding just one competitor – induces large behavioral changes among responders and proposers, causing large changes in accepted offers. Models that assume that all people are self-interested and fully rational do not adequately explain these changes. We show that a model which combines heterogeneous fairness concerns with decision errors correctly predicts the comparative static effects of changes in competition. Moreover, the combined model is remarkably good at predicting the entire distribution of offers in many different competitive situations.