Identification of Lead Users for Consumer Products via Virtual Stock Markets*

Newly launched products in the consumer goods and services markets show high failure rates. To reduce the failure rates, companies can integrate innovative and knowledgeable customers, the so‐called lead users, into the new product development process. However, the detection of such lead users is difficult, especially in consumer product markets with very large customer bases. A new and potentially valuable approach toward the identification of lead users involves the use of virtual stock markets, which have been proposed and applied for political and business forecasting but not for the identification of experts such as lead users. The basic concept of virtual stock markets is bringing a group of participants together via the Internet and allowing them to trade shares of virtual stocks. These stocks represent a bet on the outcome of future market situations, and their value depends on the realization of these market situations. In this process, a virtual stock market elicits and aggregates the assessments of its participants concerning future market developments. Virtual stock markets might also serve as a feasible instrument to filter out lead users, primarily for the following two reasons. First, a self‐selection effect might occur because sophisticated consumers with a higher involvement in the product of interest decide to participate in virtual stock markets. Second, a performance effect is likely to arise because well‐performing participants in virtual stock markets show a better understanding of the market than their (already self‐selected) fellow participants. So far, only limited information exists about these two effects and their relation to lead user characteristics. The goal of this paper is to analyze the feasibility of virtual stock markets for the identification of lead users. The results of this empirical study show that virtual stock markets can be an effective instrument to identify lead users in consumer products markets. Furthermore, the results show that not all lead users perform well in virtual stock markets. Hence, virtual stock markets allow identifying lead users with superior abilities to forecast market success.     

Restricting CEO pay

We analyze several proposals to restrict CEO compensation and calibrate two models of executive compensation that describe how firms would react to different types of restrictions. We find that many restrictions would have unintended consequences. Restrictions on total realized (ex-post) payouts lead to higher average compensation, higher rewards for mediocre performance, lower risk-taking incentives, and the fact that some CEOs would be better off with a restriction than without it. Restrictions on total ex-ante pay lead to a reduction in the firm's demand for CEO talent and effort. Restrictions on particular pay components, and especially on cash payouts, can be easily circumvented. While restrictions on option pay lead to lower risk-taking incentives, restrictions on incentive pay (stock and options) result in higher risk-taking incentives.     

The Decision to Exploit an R&D Project: Divergent Thinking across Middle and Senior Managers

Research and development (R&D) generates projects, but the question often remains: which projects should be exploited? Building on the innovation, strategy, and managerial cognition literatures, we use a conjoint field experiment to collect data on 4032 decisions made by 126 R&D managers to test how project attributes, strategic context, and managers' characteristics influence innovation exploitation decisions. Using hierarchical linear modeling, we find that (1) experience impacts project exploitation decision policies of middle managers more than senior managers, (2) divergent thinking across middle and senior managers increases with experience, and (3) experienced middle managers diverge from experienced senior managers in their decisions to exploit opportunities by placing greater emphasis on strategic context (relative to competitors and fit within the portfolio) and lesser emphasis on uncertainty (technological and demand). These findings have implications for the strategy and innovation literature.     

Ownership Structure and the Life-Cycle of the Firm: A Theory of the Decision to Go Public

This paper presents a theory of initial public offerings based on the ideathat the optimal ownership structure of a company changes over the life cycleof the firm. Insiders take the company public when they have lost thecomparative advantage over outsiders in gathering information to evaluate thefirm's growth prospects. The size of the share sold to the public depends onthe relative abilities of the market and insiders to gather this informationand on the frictions in the going-public process. Intermediaries help toreduce these frictions and lead to a more efficient allocation if IPOs areconducted more frequently. Discrimination between different classes ofinvestors may be beneficial. Learning by the market about projects in a newindustry can lead to a clustering of new issues (hot issue markets).     

On the range of options prices

In this paper we consider the valuation of an option with time to expiration and pay-off function which is a convex function (as is a European call option), and constant interest rate , in the case where the underlying model for stock prices is a purely discontinuous process (hence typically the model is incomplete). The main result is that, for “most” such models, the range of the values of the option, using all possible equivalent martingale measures for the valuation, is the interval , this interval being the biggest interval in which the values must lie, whatever model is used.     

Automation and the worldwide restructuring of the electronics industry: Strategic implications for developing countries

Governments in developing countries are placing a high priority on the development and expansion of an export-oriented electronics industry. Thus, the structural change and technological transformation currently being experienced throughout the world will have major implications for their success.Due to the oligopolistic nature of the internationalization process in this industry, the use of computerized and automation technologies in electronics manufacture is likely to penetrate into a very select group of Third World industrial growth poles in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East. The extent and location of this penetration will be largely controlled by the OECD-based multinationals. Consequently, the expected positive developmental effects may be diminished and limited to those few growth poles. These new constraints must be understood by LDC governments in order for them to implement countervailing strategies.     

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Die demographische Zeitbombe an den Börsen: Das Beispiel Deutschland

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