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51.
Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The output gap is a crucial concept in the monetary policy framework, indicating demand pressure that generates inflation.
However, its definition and estimation raise a number of theoretical and empirical questions. This paper evaluates a series
of univariate and multivariate methods for extracting the output gap in Norway, and compares their value added in predicting
inflation. We find that models including the output gap have better predictive power than models based on alternative indicators,
and they forecast significantly better than simple benchmark models. Furthermore multivariate measures of the output gap perform
better than the univariate gaps.
Comments from two anonymous referees, Q. Farooq Akram, Tommy Sveen, Ken West, Fredrik Wulfsberg and seminar participants in
Norges Bank are gratefully acknowledged. All mistakes remain our own. The views expressed are those of the authors and do
not necessarily represent those of Norges Bank. 相似文献
52.
53.
In this paper, we attempt to provide an overview of the full extent of early warning detection approaches, which are directly or indirectly addressed in the literature. These approaches can aid project managers in taking corrective actions timely enough for preventing failures. The study is based on a review of the current literature within the field of early warning in project management and our own experiences gained from practice. An analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of each approach and their applications in different contexts are also performed. We conclude that the choice of the most effective approach is arguably dependent on the type of project, organizational culture, and the project environment. 相似文献
54.
We set up a merger game between retailing stores to study the incentives of independent stores to form a big store when some consumers have preferences for one‐stop shopping. Such one‐stop shopping creates complementarity between products, leading in turn to lower prices after a big store is formed but may also lead to an improvement in the bargaining position vis‐à‐vis producers through the creation of an inside option that small stores do not have. We find that big stores will not be formed when the stores' ex ante bargaining power vis‐à‐vis producers is high. Otherwise, an asymmetric situation occurs with only one big store created when one‐stop shoppers are abundant. 相似文献
55.
Hilde Christiane Bjørnland 《Empirical Economics》2000,25(3):369-392
This paper analyses the stylized facts of business cycles in Norway, by comparing different detrending methods. As the choice
of the appropriate data transformation depends on the nature of the underlying dynamic properties of the time series, a set
of unit root tests are first applied to the data. The detrended data are analysed, both in the time domain and the frequency
domain. The evidence suggests that whereas some variables (e.g. consumption and investment) behave consistently procyclically
with GDP, for other variables (e.g. real wage and prices), the business cycle properties vary considerably with the detrending
methods used. The results are evaluated from a real business cycle perspective, but overall, there is little evidence to support
a (supply driven) real business cycle. Symmetries in business cycles are finally analysed by comparing the business cycles
in Norway and selected countries.
First version received: April 1997 / Final version received: November 1999 相似文献
56.
57.
Björn Kauder Manuela Krause Niklas Potrafke 《International Tax and Public Finance》2018,25(4):981-1000
Members of parliament (MPs) often set their own salaries. Voters dislike self-serving politicians, and politicians are keen to please voters. In line with political business cycle theories, politicians thus may delay giving themselves a salary increase until after elections. We investigate electoral cycles in the salary increases of German state MPs. Using data for 15 states over the period 1980–2014, we find no evidence that increases in MP salaries are influenced by election cycles. Politicians can increase their salaries at any point during the legislative period without negative consequences. We posit that this may be because even those voters who are most disenchanted with politics likely understand that all politicians benefit from a salary increase and thus do not punish the governing party at the polls. 相似文献
58.
Fabian Hollstein Marcel Prokopczuk Björn Tharann Chardin Wese Simen 《European Journal of Finance》2019,25(10):937-965
We comprehensively analyze the predictive power of several option-implied variables for monthly S&P 500 excess returns and realized variance. The correlation risk premium (CRP) and the variance risk premium (VRP) emerge as strong predictors of both excess returns and realized variance. This is true both in- and out-of-sample. Our results also reveal that statistical evidence of predictability does not necessarily lead to economic gains. However, a timing strategy based on the CRP leads to utility gains of more than 5.03% per annum. Forecast combinations provide stable forecasts for both excess returns and realized variance, and add economic value. 相似文献
59.
Small Business Economics - This paper studies the association between the effectiveness of insolvency regulations and entrepreneurship using multilevel modeling of about 300,000 individuals in 27... 相似文献
60.
This paper analyses interactions between the real exchange rate and business cycles in a small open economy like Norway. Using a structural vector autoregression model, the role of different shocks are analysed, to investigate to what extent the real exchange rate is absorbing shocks, or a source of shocks itself. The results are ambiguous. Output and the real exchange rate are mainly explained by separate shocks, so that relinquishing exchange rate independence should come at little cost. However, the importance of nominal shocks in the business cycle emphasises that stabilisation is possible. Hence, remaining monetary independence may be attractive. 相似文献