Modelling gold futures: should the level of speculation inform our choice of variables?

Prior literature provides conflicting evidence about the impact of speculation on gold futures returns, volatility, and the relationship between market fundamentals and prices. In this paper, we exploit trade volume information to determine the most appropriate family of factors to adopt when modelling gold futures. Using the Disaggregated Commitment of Traders report, we find that extreme levels of speculation are informative in that they signify a shift in the relative modelling accuracy of macroeconomic and latent factors. A simple composite prediction framework, incorporating the changing level of speculation, empirically demonstrates the uncovered phenomenon and offers improved predictive accuracy for gold futures prices. Furthermore, our findings are shown to be robust to alternative latent and macroeconomic model specifications.     

Volatility of Price Indices for Heterogeneous Goods with Applications to the Fine Art Market

Price indices for heterogeneous goods such as real estate or fine art constitute crucial information for institutional or private investors considering alternative investment decisions in times of financial markets turmoil. Classical mean‐variance analysis of alternative investments has been hampered by the lack of a systematic treatment of volatility in these markets. In this paper we propose a hedonic regression framework which explicitly defines an underlying stochastic process for the price index, allowing to treat the volatility parameter as the object of interest. The model can be estimated using maximum likelihood in combination with the Kalman filter. We derive theoretical properties of the volatility estimator and show that it outperforms the standard estimator. We show that extensions to allow for time‐varying volatility are straightforward using a local‐likelihood approach. In an application to a large data set of international blue chip artists, we show that volatility of the art market, although generally lower than that of financial markets, has risen after the financial crisis of 2008–09, but sharply decreased during the recent debt crisis. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The environmental value and impact of the Maker movement—Insights from a cross‐case analysis of European maker initiatives

The aim of this paper is to explore the environmental value of the Maker movement, which is driving digital fabrication into the mainstream. Makers are inspiring each other to create smart solutions for all types of individual needs and address societal and environmental challenges at the same time. They share their creative ideas and solutions in collaborative work spaces and Maker Faires or on social media platforms. Is this grassroots innovation the beginning of the next industrial revolution? This paper will explore the environmental value and impact of makers' innovative business model and discuss on how to increase the circularity. At the same time, we will describe the role of maker communities and how to help to play a better role. In the framework of a case study analysis based on 10 different Maker initiatives across Europe, 39 interviews were conducted with makers and Maker initiatives managers evaluating core questions such as potential environmental value and impact, value chains, and energy efficient behaviours. This study is expected to contribute to building an explorative but yet empirically rooted analysis of the environmental value and impact of the Maker movement. Furthermore, the challenges in the future and the suggestions for policy makers are provided.     

Integrating neighbourhood effects in the calculation of optimal final tree diameters

Modern silvicultural treatments are based on single trees whereas classic forest economics look at the stand level. To accompany each other it is necessary to transfer the established economic models to the single tree level. This paper is an approach to use the Faustmann model and the corresponding marginal rate of return (Pressler percent) to derive value increment rates of single trees taking into account neighbourhood effects due to competition between individual trees. Furthermore, optimal rotation periods and optimal final diameters for future trees will be calculated.     

Induktives Laden von Elektromobilen – Eine techno-ökonomische Bewertung

Conductive (wired) charging, where the user has to plug or unplug a cable, dominates the concepts discussed for electric vehicles up to now. Apart from the reduced range of the electric vehicle, frequent charging and especially short charging times make this plugging and unplugging appear impractical. In contrast, inductive (wireless) energy transfer makes it possible to charge without user intervention. This article attempts to answer questions on whether inductive energy transfer can already be used to charge electric vehicles and where this represents an economically attractive solution for users. To do so, first the charging technologies are presented and contrasted. It is also possible to compare the two charging technologies economically based on a cost analysis. It can be shown that no widespread use of the inductive technology is to be expected for the time being from an economic point of view due to its significant extra costs. Under certain conditions, however, there is a limited field of application as a niche technology in certain commercial areas, such as taxis, for example.     

Metals: resources or financial assets? A multivariate cross-sectional analysis

Metals are very important resources for industrial production, but recently they have attracted more and more attention from investors. While certainly industrial producers, consumers, and financial investors do have some influence on metal price development, the role of relevant price factors is not yet quite clear. Therefore, in this paper, we examine the explanatory power of various fundamental factors and characteristics known from financial markets, specifically on the expected returns in a unique data sample of 30 metals. We apply—to our knowledge for the first time in this context—the widely accepted method of characteristic-sorted portfolios, extended by the very recent method of two-way portfolio sorts as an alternative to classical multivariate regressions. This mostly nonparametric approach, combined with portfolio aggregation, provides very robust results. Our major finding is that the financial characteristics value and momentum have a very high predictive power for monthly returns of metal portfolios. Metal-specific fundamental factors like stocks, secondary production, apparent consumption, country concentration, mine production, or reserves perform depending on the interpretation moderately well or rather poorly, regarding some economically interpretable transformations and when using multivariate two-way sorts. Hence, from the perspective of expected returns, metals are predominantly assets, while fundamental metal-specific factors still play a non-negligible role. Thus, to a much lesser extent, metals can still be regarded as resources. Overall, the combination of financial characteristics and metal-specific fundamental factors yields the best results. With these robust results, we hope to contribute to a better understanding of metal prices and their underlying factors.     

Der deutsche Leistungsbilanzüberschuss — Fluch oder Segen?

Germany has one of the highest current account surpluses in the world. This is criticised by its global trading partners and is subject to the European Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure. The authors interpret this phenomenon quite disparately. Some state that the surplus is not the result of continuously and structurally slower imports relative to export growth. Instead, two periods of weak domestic demand have left lasting traces. This should not result in programmes to stimulate the demand side. Others, however, find that Germany should identify ways to increase its domestic demand, especially its public and private investment, in order to reduce its surplus. It is hard to exactly quantify and target an appropriate level of the current account, and thus political action should focus directly on the distortions and misallocations that potentially result from an imbalance. By 2020, however, the German surplus is likely to decrease due to demographic developments, the housing boom and slowing globalisation. Since the rotation of fixed income assets out of Europe (“Euroglut”) is likely to continue, the outlook for the future value of the euro is therefore even more bearish.     

Does service intangibility affect entrepreneurial orientation?

Service firms face a unique set of challenges in their internationalization and foreign market growth. Their services' characteristics, particularly intangibility, constrain the options available to them for growth. When such firms are services International New Ventures (INVs), their challenges are combined with those related to rapid internationalization and growth. This research investigates how service intangibility and the typical challenges of INVs relate to the firms' Entrepreneurial Orientation and their foreign market growth. The findings show that indeed service intangibility has a relationship with firm proactiveness, risk-taking, and innovativeness; and that not all elements of Entrepreneurial Orientation have a positive impact on growth.