排序方式: 共有20条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
11.
We present a procedure for evaluating ex ante the effects of alternative paths of a monetary policy tool (the federal funds rate in our illustrations) on output and the price level within a variant of a widely used vector autoregressive model of the U.S. economy. This exercise is a supplement to, or even an alternative to, analysis that relies on a particular structural model. Illustrations of the method are provided by evaluating the effects of changes in the funds rate target. Additionally, the Taylor rule is used to generate target funds rates for different target inflation rates, and the effects of these are evaluated. 相似文献
12.
Existing tests of spatial market integration are commonly based on statistical criteria without an explicit link to an economic model of price determination. This article proposes new measures of market integration defined directly in terms of a well-known spatial price determination model and develops an econometric methodology for estimating these measures. Due to the intractability of the conditional density function of prices, we use indirect inference to estimate the model parameters and market integration measures. The methodology is illustrated with simulated data and is applied to soybean price data for the United States, Brazil, and the EU. 相似文献
13.
14.
Optimal Storage by Crop Producers 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Paul L. Fackler & Michael J. Livingston 《American journal of agricultural economics》2002,84(3):645-659
When post–harvest marketing strategies are restricted by disallowing speculative purchases, sales out of storage becomes an irreversible decision and the dynamic marketing problem becomes analogous to the optimal exercise of a financial option. The optimal marketing strategy is to hold at low prices and to sell at high prices with a cutoff price function marking the boundary between low and high prices. A method for estimating the cut–off price function is developed and applied to Illinois soybean prices. The decision rule is demonstrated to result in substantial gains from storage. 相似文献
15.
Using comprehensive data for West Germany, this paper investigates the determinants of establishment exit. We find that between 1975 and 2006 the average exit rate has risen considerably. In order to test various “liabilities” of establishment survival identified in the literature, we analyzed the impact of establishment size and put a special focus on differences between young and mature establishments. Our empirical analysis shows that the mortality risk falls with establishment size, which confirms the liability of smallness. The probability of exit is substantially higher for young establishments which are not more than 5 years old, thus confirming the liability of newness. There also exists a liability of aging since exit rates first decline over time, reaching a minimum at ages 15–18, and then rise again somewhat. The determinants of exit differ substantially between young and mature establishments, suggesting that young establishments are more vulnerable in a number of ways. 相似文献
16.
17.
Michael J. Livingston Gerald A. Carlson and Paul L. Fackler 《American journal of agricultural economics》2004,86(1):1-13
We use a regulatory model with resistance evolution in two pests to insecticidal Bt cotton and pyrethroids (a conventional insecticide) to examine non-Bt cotton (refuge) planting requirements designed to manage Bt-resistance evolution in the midsouth. Our analysis suggests that reduced refuge requirements would enhance producer profitability, sprayed refugia are more cost effective than unsprayed refugia, and producers would receive slightly higher returns under dynamic relative to static refuge policies. Pyrethroid susceptibility in one of the pests was a renewable resource, and toxin-mixture effects associated with pyrethroid use in Bt cotton were important considerations for midsouth refuge policies. 相似文献
18.
James S. Fackler 《Journal of Macroeconomics》1982,4(1):101-108
The proposition that the level of real income is independent of the money stock, originally discussed by quantity theorists, is currently being debated in terms of the rational expectations hypothesis. In this paper, we consider the interactions among monetary policy, the tax structure, and the supply side of the economy and show a potentially important qualification to this proposition. Further, we argue that the impact of monetary policy on output may be perverse. 相似文献
19.
We estimate and analyze the impact of multiple aggregate demand and aggregate supply shocks in a small macroeconomic model of the economy. The analysis serves two purposes. First, we assess the relative importance of the various shocks in explaining the path of output over the past three decades. Second, we conduct counterfactual policy experiments which show the effects of alternative policies on key macro variables. We find that using the monetary policy tool (reserves or the base) such that constant money growth occurs would have produced superior economic results. 相似文献
20.
This article analyzes the development of employment levels and worker flows before bankruptcies, plant closure without bankruptcies and mass layoffs. Utilizing administrative plant-level data for Germany, we find no systematic employment reductions prior to mass layoffs, a strong and long-lasting reduction prior to closures, and a much shorter shadow of death preceding bankruptcies. Employment reductions in closing plants, in contrast to bankruptcies and mass layoffs, do not come along with increased worker flows. These patterns point to an intended and controlled shrinking strategy for closures without bankruptcy and to an unintended collapse for bankruptcies and mass layoffs. 相似文献