DEFAULT RISK AND DIVERSIFICATION: THEORY AND EMPIRICAL IMPLICATIONS

Recent advances in the theory of credit risk allow the use of standard term structure machinery for default risk modeling and estimation. The empirical literature in this area often interprets the drift adjustments of the default intensity's diffusion state variables as the only default risk premium. We show that this interpretation implies a restriction on the form of possible default risk premia, which can be justified through exact and approximate notions of "diversifiable default risk." The equivalence between the empirical and martingale default intensities that follows from diversifiable default risk greatly facilitates the pricing and management of credit risk. We emphasize that this is not an equivalence in distribution, and illustrate its importance using credit spread dynamics estimated in Duffee (1999) . We also argue that the assumption of diversifiability is implicitly used in certain existing models of mortgage-backed securities.     

基于Stackelberg均衡的第三方物流分包质量合同模型

如何管理、控制分包商的运作质量,使之符合第三方物流服务需求方的质量标准,本文在AlfredssonM构建的第三方物流提供者与分包商之间的Nash均衡模型的基础上,从第三方物流提供者与分包商的决策行为出发,提出了基于stackelberg均衡的第三方物流服务分包质量合同模型,并比较了第三方物流提供者和分包商对Nash均衡博弈结构和stackelberg博弈结构的决策取向。     

Adjustment, Stabilisation and the Analysis of the Employment Structure in Turkey: An Input- Output Approach

The aim of the paper is to examine the effects on employment of the large-scale structural adjustment programme undertaken by Turkey from the early 1980s onwards. In this respect, we particularly analyse how appropriate the choices of factor intensity after structural adjustment programme have been in the domestic production in comparison with the availability of domestic factor endowment. Our findings show that foreign trade in intermediate goods creates extra use of domestic labour, which can be considered as the labour cost of importing intermediate goods. This is the case in the majority of industries in the pre- and post-liberalisation period in Turkey. However, the capacity of using extra labour as a result of importing intermediate goods appeared to have decreased in the post-liberalisation period.     

审计师对舞弊报表说不了吗——来自配样本的初步证据

本文以1998—2005年上市公司舞弊样本与配对样本作为研究对象,实证分析了非标审计意见与舞弊报表的关系。研究结果表明,审计师能够以出具非标审计意见的方式揭露报表舞弊。     

商业银行发展汽车金融业务的策略分析

当前,汽车市场出现井喷式增长,各商业银行相继推出新的汽车金融业务.为应对外来汽车金融公司的同业竞争,避免再次陷入“车贷信用危机“,商业银行应积极借鉴国外的业务发展经验,针对自身业务发展障碍,制定合理的策略,审慎发展.     

建设工程施工专业分包的合同价款支付

以我国现行建设法规为依据，借鉴成熟的国际工程总分包合同体系——FIDIC合同体系，研究我国分包合同文本处理合同价款支付问题的成功与不足，使按照合同控制工程造价，控制质量和进度能真正落到实处。     

Developing a tutoring module for presentation of computerized patient management problems

The simulation problem is one of the most commonly used formats in computer-assisted instruction (CAI). In medical education, a patient simulation problem is known as a patient management problem (PMP). A number of computerized PMP systems are currently available. However, to date, there is no record of PMP systems having been developed using artificial intelligence. This is noteworthy since artificial intelligence techniques could help in the generation of more effective and intelligent instructional systems.

This paper analyzes and evaluates existing instructional simulation software in clinical medicine in terms of effective educational design attributes. Components of effective PMP systems thus identified are incorporated into a computerized instructional system which uses artificial intelligence techniques for teaching problem-solving and diagnostic skills to undergraduate medical students.     

美国的城市化进程与现代城市规划联系的解读

回顾了美国城市化的独特发展历程和美国现代城市规划历史,并就二者之间的相互关系进行了探讨,以期对处于转型期的中国城市化发展有所启示和借鉴.