Finance–Growth Nexus and the P‐bias: Evidence from OECD Countries

Recent studies provide new empirical evidence confirming that financial development is linked to economic growth in OECD countries. Using new dynamic panel regression techniques, these appraisals indicate that within the group of high‐income countries stock market size as a measure of financial advancement contributes significantly to overall economic activity. Applying the same advanced techniques, this paper questions this conclusion by showing that the findings of these studies seem to be not only not robust with respect to adding new observations but also likely to be plagued by a severe price bias which belittles the information content of the used financial indicator (stock market capitalization). We provide evidence that anticipative price effects (i.e. expectations of future growth, reflected in current stock prices) may be driving the statistical relationship between stock market activities and economic growth in high‐income countries to a much larger extent than recent analyses of the finance– growth link in OECD countries suggest .     

Nachfragesysteme für österreich

Summary This paper gives an empirical reexamination of the Linear-Expenditure-hypothesis for Austria. It starts with a brief theoretical discussion of the principal properties and restrictions of the Linear-Expenditure-System (LES). To obtain empirical estimates of the parameters of the LES two different estimation procedures are applied, i.e. the original method used byStone and a simplified version of the Systems-Least-Squares-approach (following theMarquardt-algorithm). There are no essential differences between these estimates. They all seem plausible and satisfy the theoretical restrictions.Usually the stability (i.e. time-invariance) of the parameters is accepted without proof. Using the Moving-Window-Regression-technique, however, most of the estimates vary significantly in time. To obtain a direct proof of the time-dependence of the parameters the LES is reestimated now including trend-factors. Especially results considering time-dependent marginal-budget-shares are considerably better than the static-model results.The conclusion of this paper is that the static version of the LES does not explain the consumer behaviour in Austria and that much more effort should be spent on the estimation of dynamic demand systems.     

Trade impediments,domestic goods,and the transfer problem

Zusammenfassung: Handelshindernisse, heimische Güter und das Transferproblem. — Handelshemmnisse sind eine entscheidende Voraussetzung für die Existenz heimischer Güter, deren Faktorkombination tendenziell der des Exportsektors zu entsprechen pflegt. Dies deswegen, weil der heimische Sektor die Faktoren absorbiert, die — wenn Handelshemmnisse entstehen — aus dem Sektor der handelbaren Güter freigesetzt werden. Eine Verbesserung der Handelsbilanz verursacht dann eine Senkung der Einkommen jener Faktoren, die sowohl im Exportsektor als auch im heimischen Sektor relativ intensiv genutzt werden, und das führt zu einer Verschlechterung der Terms of trade. Die Existenz heimischer Güter erh?ht andererseits tendenziell die Preiselastizit?t der Angebotskurve. Die ?unmittelbare? Wirkung von Behinderungen auf die Transferbedingungen besteht darin, den kritischen Wert der Importneigung für unver?nderte Terms of trade zu erh?hen. Das gilt sowohl für Transportkosten wie auch für Z?lle.

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Résumé: Les obstacles en commerce extérieur, les produits locaux et le problème de transfert. — Les produits locaux existent à cause des obstacles en commerce extérieur et ont la tendance d’avoir une ?mix de facteur? comme le secteur exportable. Cela se passe parce qu’ils doivent absorber les facteurs mis en ch?mage par les secteurs des biens commerciables si les obstacles deviennent effectifs. Une augmentation de la balance commerciale puis cause une chute des revenus de rente sur les facteurs qui sont intensifs en secteurs exportants aussi bien que locaux, et cela conduit à une réduction des termes d’échange. D’autre part les produits locaux ont la tendance d’augmenter l’élasticité de prix de la courbe d’offre. L’effet ?direct? des obstacles sur les conditions de transfert est d’augmenter la valeur critique des propensions d’importation pour les termes d’échange pas changés. Cela est juste pour les frais de transport aussi bien que pour les tarifs.

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Resumen: Impedimentos para el comercio, bienes domésticos y el problema de la transferencia. — Los bienes domésticos existen debido a las barreras comerciales y tienden a contener una combinación de factores similar a la del sector exportable. Esto es así, porque ellos deben absorber los factores liberados por los sectores de bienes comerciables cuando se erigen las barreras. Un incremento de la balanza comercial induce una caída en la renta de los factores utilizados intensivamente tanto en los sectores exportadores como domésticos y esto lleva a una reducción de los términos del intercambio. Los bienes domésticos por el otro lado, tienden a aumentar la elasticidad-precio de la curva de oferta. El efecto ?directe? de las barreras sobre las condiciones de transferencia es el de aumentar el valor critico de las propensidades para importar frente a términos comerciales inalterados. Esto es válido para costos de transporte como también para tarifas.

     

A spatial econometric analysis of the regional growth and volatility in Europe

Based on a sample of 1,084 European regions (EU15) from 1995 to 2004, we estimate the relationship between the average growth rate of GDP per capita and the volatility of the growth rate allowing for spatial effects. The spatial lag and spatial error models show that the regional per capita growth rate and volatility are significantly positively related on average. However, the inclusion of country interaction terms reveals that the volatility impact is not uniform across countries. In particular, the relationship between growth and volatility is significantly positive for the majority of countries but significantly negative for three countries (namely Finland, Italy, and Ireland).

All equilibria of the multi-unit Vickrey auction

This paper completely characterizes the set of equilibria of the Vickrey auction for multiple identical units when buyers have non-increasing marginal valuations and there are at least three potential buyers. There are two types of equilibria: In the first class of equilibria there are positive bids below the maximum valuation. In this class, above a threshold value all bidders bid truthfully on all units. One of the bidders bids at the threshold for any unit for which his valuation is below the threshold; the other bidders bid zero in this range. In the second class of equilibria there are as many bids at or above the maximum valuation as there are units. The allocation of these bids is arbitrary across bidders. All the remaining bids equal zero. With any positive reserve price equilibrium becomes unique: Bidders bid truthfully on all units for which their valuation exceeds the reserve price.     

Innovativeness in family firms: a family influence perspective

This paper investigates the relationships between family influence and family firm performance. Specifically, we investigate how generational ownership dispersion, family management involvement, and family member reciprocity affect firm performance. We also consider the moderating role of innovativeness. Our findings indicate that family firm influence can have both positive and negative consequences for family firm performance. Implications and areas for future research are discussed.     

The possibility of judgment aggregation on agendas with subjunctive implications

The new field of judgment aggregation aims to find collective judgments on logically interconnected propositions. Recent impossibility results establish limitations on the possibility to vote independently on the propositions. I show that, fortunately, the impossibility results do not apply to a wide class of realistic agendas once propositions like “if a then b” are adequately modelled, namely as subjunctive implications rather than material implications. For these agendas, consistent and complete collective judgments can be reached through appropriate quota rules (which decide propositions using acceptance thresholds). I characterise the class of these quota rules. I also prove an abstract result that characterises consistent aggregation for arbitrary agendas in a general logic.