Risk and Producer Compensation in the Agenda 2000 Cereal Reforms: A Note

This note takes the view that existing studies of the impact of the Agenda 2000 cereal reform package have mis‐specified the impact of this package on a producer's price distribution. It is argued that an accurate assessment of this package requires use of the methodology outlined in Fraser (1991), and that use of this methodology highlights the central role of expected world prices in determining whether producer perceptions of this impact are favourable or unfavourable. A numerical analysis in the context of wheat producers generates an estimate for expected world prices of 111–112 Euros/tonne above which producers will perceive the package favourably. This estimate is found to be robust with respect to the key parameters of the analysis.     

Bidder returns in interstate and intrastate bank acquisitions

Returns to bidders are examined for 108 bank acquisitions over the 1981–1987 period. These returns provide evidence on the conflict-of-interest hypothesis and the hubris hypothesis, both of which predict negative returns to bidders, versus the shareholder wealth maximization model that predicts positive (or at least non-negative) returns. Further evidence on these hypotheses is provided from the returns on 18 defensive acquisitions. Consistent with the conflict-of-interest and hubris hypotheses, announcement period returns are negative and statistically significant both for interstate and intrastate acquisitions. However, bidder returns to interstate bank acquisitions do not differ significantly from intrastate mergers.     

THE RISK IMPLICATIONS OF FORECAST ERRORS OF BANK EARNINGS, 1976–1986

The forecast errors arising from security analysts' predictions of commercial bank earnings are investigated here and compared with the earnings forecast errors associated with savings and loans, other financial services organizations, and a random sample of nonfinancial firms from 1976 to 1986. Although bank earnings forecast errors did increase over 1976–1986, analyses suggest that the rise was less than at other industries considered in the study. The increase in forecast errors appears to be centered at multinational banking organizations, with only limited increases in earnings forecast errors at regional banks.     

Did capital infusions enhance bank recovery from the great recession?

This paper investigates the long-run recovery experience of US banks that received capital infusions under the Capital Purchase Program (CPP), a part of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). Based on a dynamic recovery model, our results show that recovering CPP banks tended to be in better financial condition than other CPP banks. Long-run event study analyses of common stock prices reveal that, in the quarter after repayment of TARP funds, CPP banks experienced economically large and significant buy-and-hold wealth gains of 14%, equivalent to approximately $329 billion. We conclude that TARP was successful in fostering bank financial and stock price recovery.     

Experiments in farmers' collectives in Eastern India and Nepal: Process,benefits, and challenges

Do farmers' collectives, which pool land, labour, capital, and skills to create medium‐sized production units, offer a more viable model of farming for resource‐constrained smallholders than individual family farms? A participatory action research project in Eastern India and Nepal provides notable answers. Groups of marginal and tenant farmers, catalysed by the project, evolved into four different collective models with varying levels of cooperation, gender composition, and land ownership/tenancy status. Based on 3 years of action research, this paper examines how the models evolved and their differential outcomes. All groups have gained from cultivating contiguous plots in their efficiency of labour and machine use for land preparation and irrigation, and from economies in input purchase. Several collectives of tenant farmers have also enhanced their bargaining power vis‐a‐vis an entrenched landlord class and thus been able to negotiate lower rents and refuse long‐standing feudal obligations. However, the models differ in their extent of economic gain and their ability to handle gender inequalities and conflicts over labour sharing. The paper explores the historical, regional, and cultural factors that could explain such differences across the models. It thus offers unique insights into the processes, benefits, and challenges of farmers' collectives and provides pointers for replication and further research.     

An economic analysis of factors influencing rural‐urban migration in southern Africa

Rural‐urban migration is a serious problem being encountered by developing countries, including South Africa. A single‐equation model is formulated to test hypotheses concerning the determinants, namely personal and household characteristics, of the decision by household heads in Ciskei to migrate. The migration model was expressed as a dichotomous ordered‐response model using logistic regression. The results suggest that the personal characteristics of the household heads had a bearing on the probability of migration. The coefficients of the household characteristics, with the exception of the number of adults in the household, were found to have a statistically weak association with the decision to migrate.     

Understanding pre-teen consumers social media engagement

Social media (SM) platforms are frequently used by pre-teen (8–12-year old) consumers for curating their self-identity, developing social relationships and for learning. This paper identifies the building blocks that drive pre-teen SM engagement. We use the Gioia method to analyse interview data collected from 32 pre-teens and parents, in France. Findings show that the primary building blocks are FoMO (Fear of Missing Out) and social inclusive experience, being noticed online, multiplicity, excessive use (without guidelines) and self-regulation. Identity constructs (self-identity and social-identity) are used to explain SM engagement – and to empirically define core conceptual building blocks (aggregate dimensions) that drive SM engagement. We contribute to consumer theory by developing a holistic research framework to examine pre-teen SM engagement. Self-identity and social-identity theories help explain the factors that drive pre-teen SM engagement and explain push/pull influences of parents and schools in encouraging or discouraging certain behaviour. We build on current research into SM usage, drawing from the fragmented existing literature, to reveal causes of both excessive screen-time and SM usage among pre-teen consumers, which may indicate antecedents of future adult behaviour. Practical and regulatory policy issues are considered and addressed.