Optimism and the perceptions of new risks

While many risks, especially new ones, are not objectively quantifiable, individuals still form perceptions of risks using incomplete or unclear evidence about the true nature of those risks. In the case of well known risks, such as smoking, individuals perceive risks to be smaller for themselves than others, exhibiting ‘optimism bias’. Although existing evidence supports optimism bias occurring in the case of risks about which individuals are familiar, evidence does not yet exist to suggest that optimism bias applies for new risks. This paper addresses this question by examining the gap in perceptions of risks individuals have for themselves versus society and the environment, conceptualised as social and/or environmental optimism biases. We draw upon the 2002 UEA‐MORI Risk Survey to examine the existence of optimism bias and its effects on risk perceptions and acceptance regarding five science and technology‐related topics: climate change, mobile phones, radioactive waste, GM food and genetic testing. Our findings provide evidence of social and environmental optimism bias following similar patterns and optimism bias appearing greater for those risks bringing sizeable benefit to individuals (e.g. mobile phone radiation) rather than those more acutely affecting society or the environment (e.g. GM food or climate change). Social optimism bias is found to reduce risk perceptions for risks that have received large amounts of media attention, namely, climate change and GM food. On the other hand, optimism bias appears to increase risk perceptions about genetic testing.     

Trade and the Effect of Public Investment on Regional Inequalities in Heterogeneously Integrated Areas

Regional integration, it is argued, challenges the distribution of economic activity among regions. However, the government role in shifting the patterns of regional inequalities is still under debate and has received small comprehensive empirical evidence. This paper examines the hypothesis of trade as channelling public investment and, thus, perpetuating regional inequalities. We argue that the interplay of public and private investment plays a key role in stimulating trade and economic activity. To avoid problems of cross‐country heterogeneity and comparability this study examines data for two countries; Mexico and Spain, both followers of trade integration arrangements. Findings indicate that regional inequalities in Mexico are significantly explained by differences in export capacity serving to boost private investment whereas inequalities in Spain are appreciably driven by previous endowments and private capital formation.     

Adjusting Choice Models to Better Predict Market Behavior

The emergence of Bayesian methodology has facilitated respondent-level conjoint models, and deriving utilities from choice experiments has become very popular among those modeling product line decisions or new product introductions. This review begins with a paradox of why experimental choices should mirror market behavior despite clear differences in content, structure and motivation. It then addresses ways to design the choice tasks so that they are more likely to reflect market choices. Finally, it examines ways to model the results of the choice experiments to better mirror both underlying decision processes and potential market choices. Co-chairs. Author order is alphabetical.     

REINVESTED EARNINGS ON DIRECT FOREIGN INVESTMENT

Reinvested earnings on direct foreign investment are accounted for differently in A System of National Accounts 1968 and the System of National Accounts 1993. In this paper these treatments are compared in relation to the connection between national income accounting and macroeconomic theory. For this purpose, macroeconomic modelling is represented by an attempt to extend the closed-economy Cambridge model of growth and distribution to a two-country trading world.     

Assessing the influence of direct payments on the rental value of agricultural land

Economic theory suggests that coupled and decoupled direct payments have different impacts on agricultural rental values because of the different production responses associated with these payments. This study investigates the impact of both coupled and decoupled EU CAP direct payments on rental values in Northern Ireland, using panel data taken from the farm business survey for the period from 1994 to 2002. Theoretically, agricultural land rents are a function of expected market returns and expected associated direct payments. The unobservable nature of expected returns means that actual market returns must be used as a proxy for the former in the empirical specification. As a consequence, the problem of bias due to expectation error arises. Using a GMM technique to take account of this problem, the results of this study show that the impact of CAP direct payments on rental values depends on the type of payment and on the nature of the production characteristics of the associated agricultural commodity.     

Litigation Patterns in Automobile Bodily Injury Claims 1977–1997: Effects of Time and Tort Reforms

This study uses data from the Insurance Research Council to investigate changes in the use of attorneys and in the filing of legal claims to resolve automobile third‐party bodily injury claims between 1977 and 1997. We find results consistent with the general public perception that the use of attorneys and the filing of legal claims have increased over the study period. In addition, we find evidence that tort reforms enacted by the states have slowed the rates of increase in the use of attorneys and in the filing of legal claims to resolve automobile insurance claim disputes.     

Probability Updating and the Market for Directors’ and Officers’ Insurance

Over the past decade, much attention has been given to the topics of corporate governance and corporate risk management. One increasingly important insurance product associated with each of these issues is directors’ and officers’ (D&O) liability insurance. Given the interconnectedness that exists between D&O insurance, corporate risk management, and corporate governance, we exploit industry‐specific D&O data to explain how industries most associated with the corporate scandals of the early 2000s adjusted demand patterns during periods of certainty and uncertainty. The rich data set coupled with dramatic changes in the marketplace allows for the testing of insurance demand patterns and enables us to offer insight into the market's response to a unique type of loss shock. The results of this study suggest evidence in favor of demand‐side probability updating, whereby those industries most associated with the corporate scandals of the early 2000s adjusted the demand for D&O insurance during periods of greater uncertainty.     

An Integrated Model of the Adoption and Extent of E-Commerce in Firms

This work aims to explain firms’ decisions to adopt Internet-based e-commerce, and the extent to which the adopters subsequently implement e-commerce to commercialize their products and services. We examine various types of factors previously considered by the literature (competitive environment, organizational characteristics, strategic orientation, innovative capacity, managers’ characteristics, IT equipment possessed and the use made of it). The analytical model developed here on the basis of a sample of 2,038 firms suggests that the factors influencing the adoption decision are different from those that eventually influence the results of firms’ commercial operations on the Internet. Likewise, we discuss the contribution of each type of determinant and the implications.