The Contribution of Tourists and Visitors to Road Traffic Accidents: A Preliminary Analysis of Trends and Issues for Central Scotland

This paper reviews the literature on road traffic accidents and their role in the mobility of tourists within discernible regions of activity. The paper builds upon knowledge developed in the tourism, transportation and safety science areas of research to illustrate the significance of these issues in relation to tourist well-being, and argues that multidisciplinary perspectives informed by different cognate areas of research combined with interactive research with public sector agencies such as the police, can make major contributions to the formulation of policy and actions to improve tourist and visitor safety. Using a police derived data source permits analysis and discussion of the key issues facing leisure-related (in which tourism is subsumed) and non-leisure-related traffic in one region of Scotland. Through a regional analysis of the available data sources it is possible to identify areas of action for agencies.     

Decentralization and the search for policy solutions

We use mathematical and computational models to analyze theability of federated organizations to solve difficult problems.Federated organizations may have some inherent advantages forsolving difficult problems since they can empower multiple subunitsto search for policy solutions in parallel and exploit and combinethe mutual information discovered by the subunits to revealeven better solutions. We find that the benefits of these methodsof experimentation first increase and then decrease as the problemof finding good policies increases in difficulty.     

Long-term metals forecasting: The track record: 1910–1964

In 90 forecasts published in journals, about 70% of the individual predictions proved correct; partly because they were fairly vague. However, two major reports dealing with long-term metals forecasting were much less accurate. Unexpectedly high rates of economic growth and technological change (since 1952) contributed to the Paley Commission's inaccuracy; whereas the failure of expected developments to occur (after 1964) upset the predictions of Resources in America's Future.     

The Psychology of Intertemporal Discounting: Why are Distant Events Valued Differently from Proximal Ones?

Research in intertemporal choice has been done in a variety of contexts, yet there is a remarkable consensus that future outcomes are discounted (or undervalued) relative to immediate outcomes. In this paper, we (a) review some of the key findings in the literature, (b) critically examine and articulate implicit assumptions, (c) distinguish between intertemporal effects arising due to time preference versus those due to changes in utility as a function of time, and (d) identify issues and questions that we believe serve as avenues for future research.     

Equilibrium Selection and Stability for the Groves Ledyard Mechanism

In their seminal paper Groves and Ledyard (1976) construct a balanced incentive compatible mechanism that solves the free rider problem. In subsequent research, Bergstrom, Simon, and Titus (1983) prove that there exist numerous asymmetric equilibria in addition to the symmetric equilibrium. In the present paper, we explicitly solve for the additional equilibria and use computational experiments to examine the structure and stability of the set of equilibria of the Groves Ledyard Mechanism. We find that all of the equilibria found by Berstrom, Simon, and Titus are unstable and that for a high level of the punishment parameter these equilibria do not exist. Further, we find that there exists an additional boundary equilibrium for each of the equilibria found by Bergstrom, Simon, and Titus. The boundary equilibria are all stable.