Lothar Späth zum Honorarprofessor in Jena ernannt

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Karl Pearson and the Scandinavian School of Statistics

The relationship between Karl Pearson and the Scandinavian statisticians was more of a competitive than a collaborative nature. We describe the leading statisticians and stochasticists of the Scandinavian school, and relate some of their work to the work of Pearson.     

Ausweitung der Arzthaftung als Einfallstor für neue Formen der Arzthaftpflichtversicherung?

In a recent case, the Austrian Supreme Court remarkably extended medical liability of a gynaecologist for inadequate information about a possible mental handicap of an unborn child. On this occasion, the paper outlines the modified risk exposure of physicians and analyses a possible impact of case-law on the availability and affordability of liability insurance. It raises the question whether a liability crisis could be possible in Austria and briefly explains the underlying U.S. legal and regulatory framework that led to liability crises in the past. In the U.S., alternative risk transfer by means of Risk Retention Groups (RRGs) has been crucial in improving availability and affordability of liability insurance and to rein in liability crises. The Austrian legal and regulatory framework as it stands now would allow for self insurance solutions like Risk Retention Groups but the economic necessity for alternative solutions to traditional insurance schemes seems to be lacking.     

Optimal asset allocation for a large number of investment opportunities

This paper introduces a stock‐picking algorithm that can be used to perform an optimal asset allocation for a large number of investment opportunities. The allocation scheme is based upon the idea of causal risk. Instead of referring to the volatility of the assets time series, the stock‐picking algorithm determines the risk exposure of the portfolio by concerning the non‐forecastability of the assets. The underlying expected return forecasts are based on time‐delay recurrent error correction neural networks, which utilize the last model error as an auxiliary input to evaluate their own misspecification. We demonstrate the profitability of our stock‐picking approach by constructing portfolios from 68 different assets of the German stock market. It turns out that our approach is superior to a preset benchmark portfolio. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Die Moskauer Nachschrift der Vorlesungen von Adam Smith

Ohne Zusammenfassung