A systematic approach to technological forecasting

Past attempts to rationalize the many methods of technological forecasting have not been sufficiently practical; they have largely been based on an abstract sort of classification while their use has been of an ad hoc nature. This paper reviews the position and puts forward a rationale leading to a more logical classification of methods and a systematic approach to their use in practice. The proposed classification and systematic use of the many methods is based on the concept that a technological forecast has four prime elements or dimensions, qualitative, quantitative, time and probability. Only when all these elements are provided can a technological forecast be responsibly used in decision making in R & D and corporate planning.