美国预算和财政管理改革的演进及对中国的启示

一直以来,美国公共预算和财政管理的改革都是务实的、政治的、演进的,有时也不乏创新性。通过对美国公共预算和财政管理改革的历史进行回顾,可以得出一个理解公共预算和财政管理改革的理论框架,这将有助于理解美国现行预算和财政制度体系。这些改革经验对于包括中国在内的世界各国均具有一定的启示和借鉴意义。     

TOURISM AND REGIONAL IMMISERIZATION

Abstract.  This paper analyzes the consequences of tourism in rural and urban areas on regional incomes, welfare and urban unemployment using a generalized Harris Todaro model. In this model two urban and two rural goods are produced. A distinguishing characteristic of this model is that the urban non-traded good is not consumed in the rural region and, similarly, the rural non-traded good is not consumed in the urban region. The most important result we obtain is that a tourist boom in the urban region may immiserize the rural area. Hence the welfare interests of rural and urban consumers may be in conflict as a result of tourist expansion in the urban region.     

Institutional Ownership, Strategic Choices and Corporate Efficiency: Evidence from Japan

Based on the tenets of capital allocation systems theory, stewardship theory, and 'going concern' concept of business, institutional ownership is proposed to affect corporate productivity, both directly and indirectly, in large Japanese corporations through a set of four firm-level choices: product/market development, R&D intensity, capital intensity, and leverage. Using data on 118 corporations drawn from five industry sectors in Japan, and applying a partial mediation technique, this study tests an integrated, causal model of the relationships among these variables. Results show mixed support for the model. No direct relationship between institutional ownership and productivity is observed. However, institutional ownership affects productivity indirectly through R&D intensity and leverage. Although product/market development and capital intensity also affect productivity, institutional ownership has no significant relationship with them.     

Money as Social Exergy

Synopsis It has been proposed that open thermodynamic systems will act to dissipate available energy gradients by self-organizing into coherent structures that, with time, evolve and develop into nested hierarchies – panarchies – that adapt to internal and external changes according to a characteristic adaptive cycle. This paper seeks to apply these ideas in the purely societal realm by investigating the role of money in economic systems. Money represents the value embodied in goods; a value that is separate from the exact nature of those goods. We suggest that money thereby liberates the ‘free value’ of economic desire and that this free value has properties analogous to energy. The result is the self-organization of structures and systems (‘econosystems’) that dissipate this ‘free value’. Econosystems act at different scales, and nested levels of econosystems form a panarchy, having effects that can be observed. In particular, it appears that money facilitates the creation of relationships between econosystem actors, increasing the connectedness of the econosystems that envelop those actors. We have identified a phenomenon whereby freed social value (i.e. money) can aggregate, or pool, at a larger econosystem scale in structures such as banks. These pools act as gradients that actors at the neighborhood scale can exploit for self-organization in the econosystem. Thus, econosystem actors appear to be freed from thermodynamic constraints by using money as a means of self-organization. However, because of these pools of aggregated social exergy, connectedness is increased at the larger scale of the econosystem. The potential consequence of this dynamic is that money may act to push larger scale econosystems toward a state of heightened vulnerability to collapse, while freeing smaller scale actors from apparent constraints. In this way, we propose that money acts to skew information feedback loops between econosystem actors and larger scale structures such as economies and ecosystems.      

Regions of the Production Function,Returns, and Economies of Scale: Further Considerations

Contrasting their work with that of Christopher Ross Bell, the authors present a graphical isoquant analysis that suggests that it is not possible for a production function characterized by decreasing returns to yield economies of scale.     

Prison Labor: The Local Effects of Ohio Prison Industries

Prison labor has both positive and negative effects. Keeping prisoners active, training and socializing them to be productive citizens after prison, and helping to pay for their incarceration are some of the positives. Potential crowding out of free labor and industry is the major potential negative. This paper addresses the quantitative financial and employment consequences on local free labor and industry of prison industries in Ohio using an input–output model for Ohio. Based on the analysis, prison industries employment in Ohio has negligible to positive employment consequences for the Ohio economy and partially offsets the incarceration cost of the inmates who participate – providing between 5 and 10 percent of the incarceration cost in net cash flow and induced tax revenues.Presented at the 59th International Atlantic Economic Conference, London, March 9–13, 2005.     

Threshold models for trended time series

This paper presents the theoretical development of a new threshold autoregressive model based on trended time series. The theoretical arguments underlying the model are outlined and a nonlinear economic model is used to derive the specification of the empirical econometric model. Estimation and testing issues are considered and analysed. Additionally we apply the model to the empirical investigation of U.S. GDP.This paper is the result of work carried out for the author's Ph.D. thesis. I would like to thank Hashem Pesaran for his help, encouragement and insights during the preparation of this paper. I also thank Gary Koop and Sean Holly for helpful comments. Financial assistance from the Economic and Social Research Council is gratefully acknowledged.     

A comparison of citizen and “expert” preferences using an attribute-based approach to choice

This paper explores whether expert judgements can be taken as a proxy for citizen preferences for determining investment strategies for public goods. As an illustration, we focus on the provision of Public Rights Of Way (PROW) by Local Government Authorities in England. These provide rights of passage over property to those other than the owners, and little information is available on the welfare effects of changes in the provision and use of PROW. Given limited funds, reliance on expert judgement could be a cost effective alternative for decision-making compared with stated preference surveys of citizens. Two methods are compared. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to elicit expert judgement to proxy citizen preferences for different attributes of PROW. The Choice Experiment (CE) technique is then used to derive preferences directly through personal interviews with citizens. Overall it was found that judicious use of AHP by experts can, in this instance, be used to represent citizen views. However, this result may not be easily generalisable to other settings.     

When is a tax neutral?

A proportional income tax is said to be neutral if variations in the tax rate do not affect the optimal composition of the consumption commodities of a utility maximizing consumer. It is shown that neutrality obtains if and only if the indirect utility function of the consumer is groupwise homothetic. If the income tax rates on labor and property incomes are allowed to differ, then neutrality obtains if and only if the indirect utility function of the consumer is homothetically separable. If, in addition, it is required that the proportional income tax be neutral with respect to not only consumption commodities but also to leisure, then 'the indirect utility function must have the form: $\text{V = V(f(w)+H}{}^1\text{(p))}$, where w and p are the normalized prices of leisure and consumption respectively, and H¹(p) is homogeneous of degree one in p.     

Use of insertable cardiac monitors for the detection of atrial fibrillation in patients with cryptogenic stroke in the United States is cost-effective

Abstract

Objectives: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia and a major marker of ischemic stroke risk. Early detection is crucial and, once diagnosed, anticoagulation therapy can be initiated to reduce stroke risk. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of employing an insertable cardiac monitor (ICM), BIOMONITOR, for the detection of AF compared to standard of care (SoC) ECG and Holter monitoring in patients with cryptogenic stroke, that is, stroke of unknown origin and where paroxysmal, silent AF is suspected.

Materials and methods: A Markov model was developed which consisted of five main health states reflecting the potential lifetime evolution of the AF disease: post cryptogenic stroke (index event), subsequent mild, moderate and severe stroke, and death. Sub-states were included to track a patient’s AF diagnostic status and the use of antiplatelet or anticoagulant therapy. AF detection was assumed to result in a treatment switch from aspirin to anticoagulants, except among those with a history of major bleeding. Detection yield and accuracy, clinical actions and treatment effects were derived from the literature and validated by an expert clinician. All relevant costs from a US Medicare perspective were included.

Results and conclusions: An ICM-based strategy was associated with a reduction of 37 secondary ischemic strokes per 1000 patients monitored compared with SoC. Total per-patient costs with an ICM were higher (US$90,052 vs. US$85,157) although stroke-related costs were reduced. The use of an ICM was associated with a base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$18,487 per life year gained compared with SoC and US$25,098 per quality-adjusted life year gained, below established willingness-to-pay thresholds. The conclusions were found to be robust over a range of input values. From a US Medicare perspective the use of a BIOMONITOR ICM represents a cost-effective diagnostic strategy for patients with cryptogenic stroke and suspected AF.