Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree

Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs involves direct use of weather inputs (temperature, solar radiation available to the plant, and precipitation). Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes such as prices, production, and trade arising from differences in model inputs and model specification. This article presents climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. By harmonizing key drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes were reduced. The particular choice of climate change drivers for this comparison activity results in large and negative productivity effects. All models respond with higher prices. Producer behavior differs by model with some emphasizing area response and others yield response. Demand response is least important. The differences reflect both differences in model specification and perspectives on the future. The results from this study highlight the need to more fully compare the deep model parameters, to generate a call for a combination of econometric and validation studies to narrow the degree of uncertainty and variability in these parameters and to move to Monte Carlo type simulations to better map the contours of economic uncertainty.     

Money,activity and prices: Some inter-country evidence

The paper explores the relationships between monetary variables and real economic activity and prices in the six largest industrialized economies. Univariate and multivariate time series forecasting models are used to break down monetary policy variables into anticipated and unanticipated components. Overall monetary policy variables, particularly domestic credit expansion, appear to be significant leading indicators for subsequent real economic activity and prices. Additionally, anticipated components of monetary policy are shown to have as much forecasting ability for subsequently realized economic variables as unanticipated components. This does not appear to be consistent with the implications of pure rational expectations models. It was also noted that results differed significantly according to the choice of monetary variable and across individual countries. In particular the results implied no contradiction with previous findings for the impact of unanticipated money supply in the U.S., though such contradictions would have appeared if DCE had been used as the monetary variable.     

Global Influences on U.S. Auto Innovation

There is a growing interest in the role that patents in one country have on product innovation in other countries. This paper contributes to the existing literature by using a firm fixed-effects model to investigate the connection between industry innovation (specifically that of the U.S. automobile industry) and a variety of micro and macroeconomic factors. Knowledge spillovers between countries are modeled using data from the Patent and Trademark Office, Census Bureau, and COMPUSTAT. The results indicate that German innovations affect U.S. firms differently from Japanese innovations: Japanese patents have a larger negative influence on U.S. auto manufacturers' patenting behavior.     

The impact of corporate size and strategy on competitive pricing

Larger firms are often hypothesized to have higher prices than smaller competitors because of their market power or implicit collusion on prices. Advertising is often suggested as another cause of price elevation due to its ability to differentiate products of equivalent or inferior quality. This study examines the effect of these and other factors on prices in the major home appliance industry. The most interesting result is the strong corporate effect on prices, which permeates pricing strategies across categories, models and time. Contrary to the hypotheses listed above, larger corporations have lower prices, and advertised products are not higher priced. Strategic and policy implications are discussed.     

The Economics of Private Business Jet Travel

The use of private air travel for business trips has expanded rapidly over the past few decades. We estimate that the number of U.S. domestic passenger trips per year on business aircraft exceeded 17 million in 2007, or a number equal to about 40 percent of combined domestic first-class, business-class, and full-fare coach airline trips—travel options for which passengers also pay a premium for timeliness, comfort, or privacy. Once a company determines that it can benefit from private business travel, it generally identifies the most cost-effective option, including the operating characteristics of the aircraft and the options for obtaining this service. This paper examines some of the factors that influence decisions on these options, with particular emphasis on the financial and program alternatives that are making it less costly for business travelers to take advantage of private jet travel, thereby expanding its use. Our findings indicate that the customary view of these options is oversimplified and ignores the new ownership (or non-ownership) models for obtaining use of a business aircraft.     

Deforestation and land use change: sparse data environments

Understanding determinants of land use in developing countries has become a priority for researchers and policy makers with a wide range of interests. For the vast majority of these land use issues, the location of change is as important as its magnitude. This overview paper highlights new economic approaches to modeling land use determinants that combine non‐traditional data sources with novel economic models and econometric techniques. A key feature is that location is central to the analysis. All data elements include an explicit location attribute, estimation techniques include the potential for complications from spatial effects, and results are location‐specific. The paper reviews the theory underlying these models. Since this paper is intended to provide the potential new researcher with an introduction to the challenges of this analysis, we present an overview of how remotely‐sensed data are collected and processed, describe key GIS concepts and identify sources of data for this type of econometric analysis. Finally, selected papers using these techniques are reviewed.